Horse racing

Still handicapping the "preps" -- The Derby Trial

OK, it's not really a Kentucky Derby prep anymore, but the Derby Trial remains an outstanding race. Tim Tam in 1958 was the last Derby winner to come out the Trial. And in those days, as I recall the period, the Trial was run on the Tuesday before the Derby. In  more recent years, the Trial has become more of a prep for the final two races in the Triple Crown. Key to the Mint, Cherokee Run and Macho Again, for example, all went from the Trial to the Preakness. And the Trial has produced Belmont winners Caveat, Creme Fraiche and Da' Tara.

Saturday's Trial, the opening night feature at Churchill, is another excellent edition of the race, and it would be easy to envision some of these moving forward to join the Triple Crown parade in Baltimore. Travelin Man is the 7-5 favorite in the morning line, and he's indeed an intriguing horse, having most recently won the Swale at Gulfstream Park.

In his first two outings, he flashed his considerable speed. In his debut, he threw down an opening half-mile in 44.61 seconds and then drew off to win by himself, completing the three-quarters in 1:09.09. In the Hutcheson, he again scorched the earth, sprinting through an opening half in 44.53, but he faltered badly in the final three-sixteenths of a mile and finished second to Flashpoint. And then he won the Swale.

Except for his winning, the Swale revealed a different dimension of Travelin Man. He didn't zip to the lead, but left it for stablemate Razmatz, who set a pace that was surprisingly moderate, 46.42 for the half. In fact, that was the slowest half-mile split of any race that day at Gulfstream under a mile. It was dawdling. Maidens went faster, with a shorter run to the turn, in the preceding race. But Travelin Man, in a tribute to Todd Pletcher's training, rated comfortably in a stalking position. He didn't insist, as some speedsters will, on having the lead. And then, with an explosive move, running the final three furlongs in 35.34, he drew clear.

And so what Travelin Man runs at Churchill, the blazer or the stalker? Well, he's certainly quick enough to jump out to an early lead, but with the distance stretching out to a mile and with his Swale performance indicating a willingness to rate, I'm going to assume that he stalks or at least that he doesn't run wild through dizzy fractions. That could leave JJ's Lucky Train on the early lead.

He won the Bay Shore by a neck in a tenacious effort, despite a slow start and a wide trip. But his best race might have been the Miracle Wood at Laurel, where he stalked a rapid pace set by Bandbox, who went through an opening half in 45.90, which was easily the fastest opening half-mile split of the day. In that race, too, JJ's Lucky Train showed considerable tenacity, winning a photo. Only once in a one-turn race, when making the second start of his career in the Sapling, has a horse run by JJ's Lucky Train. In fact, that Sapling is his only loss in six one-turn races. And so at Travelin Man's 7-5 odds, for investment purposes, I don't like his chances of getting by the very determined Train.

Several other interesting horses are in here. Indiano, unbeaten in Panama, was compromised by the slow pace in the Swale, but he finished well to be second. Indian Winter, who flopped in two efforts around two turns, returns to what could be a more comfortable distance. And Machen, who looked sensational in his maiden win sprinting at Fair Grounds, also backs up to one turn after finishing fifth in the Louisiana Derby.

But if you're looking for a horse with potential, with a towering up-side, you might consider for a moment Dominus. He comes out of a maiden victory at Santa Anita. It was a slow-paced race, and under restraint he got the early lead. What's impressive, though, is the way he finished with a burst, running the final three furlongs in about 35.20. He doesn't have nearly enough early speed to dispute the pace here; the presence of Julien Leparoux in the saddle suggests he'll be taken back to make a late run. And his trainer, Steve Asmussen, said Dominus could develop into "any kind of horse," meaning he could become, well, a winner of the Derby Trial.

Derby Trial selections: JJ's Lucky Train, Dominus, Travelin Man, Machen.

Looking around

Traditional media, you've probably noticed, largely neglect horse racing -- that is, newspapers don't cover the sport as they once did. And as much as we might inveigh against that trend, I doubt that it's going to change. Such neglect might seem unwise, especially since in the absence of much coverage the newspaper that steps up would find itself in a unique position, but racing coverage seems to decline each year. Or maybe it's just moving to different and, in some cases, more exciting media.

The good news is that the Internet has filled the void left by newspapers. Coverage isn't really less; it's just different: more visual, more immediate. Within moments of a story's being filed and posted on horse racing, for example, a link to it can appear at http://www.raceday360.com/.

Anyway, a good friend whose horse racing interest blooms for a few weeks each year (during the Triple Crown and Breeders' Cup, of course) recently asked me who are the favorites going to the Derby and what are their credentials. More to the point, he said, "Who's going to win?" He said he had looked in a couple newspapers but couldn't find much. And so, after realizing I didn't want to expound on such an amorphous subject, I told him about a few Internet sites, but not necessarily the obvious ones (DRF, Blood-Horse, Equidaily, et al), that he might find interesting.

At the risk of overlooking somebody and of trying your patience (since you're obviously on the Internet, you probably know of many of these sites and very possibly many more; feel free to add to the list), I thought I would pass them along here. Many respected turf writers now contribute regularly to blogs. And many more bloggers and aggregators who work for the pure joy of getting close to the sport and who dedicate much of their time and talent to horse racing -- well, they're very impressive. The sport, they realize, isn't about them, but about the competitors, and they celebrate the sport. Their writing is usually good, sometimes outstanding; their commentary is usually thoughtful, sometimes profound. Some people put up video. (I still need help just including a photo.) And their passion, I think, says much about this great sport.

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, the best and most thorough turf writer in America is Jennie Rees of the Louisville Courier-Journal. Through the Triple Crown, she'll produce even more daily material than her newspaper can handle, and so she also has a blog, at http://blogs.courier-journal.com/racing/author/jrees/. But she isn't the type of blogger I'm writing about here, for the most part, since she also writes for a newspaper. I'm focusing mainly on those who write for the Internet.

To stay with the Derby for a moment, Matt O'Mara does an outstanding job with his  http://www.chasingthederby.com/. His website has video (including workouts), photos, futures odds. He links to articles but provides succinct commentary also. And http://kentuckyconfidential.com/ is up an running, with a host of folks at Churchill Downs this week; http://www.horseracingnation.com/ is also very much on top of all things related to the Derby. But for the most immediate information, via Twitter, there's http://twitter.com/#!/derbycontenders. The updates come in moment to moment.

John Pricci and his astute colleagues -- Vic Zast, Bill Christine and Brendan O'Meara -- at http://www.horseraceinsider.com/ are thoughtful and frequently provocative. Jessica Chapel has an enviable set of skills, at http://jessicachapel.com/: She knows racing, media and technology. For a fresh and often entertaining look at events, http://pullthepocket.blogspot.com/ and http://leftatthegate.blogspot.com/ are always interesting, sometimes amusing.

The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, at http://www.tbablogs.com/ is lively, with a terrific twitter forum. I'm not a twittering guy, but I look at the forum just to see what folks are thinking about. Knight Sky works in technology, and his site, http://theknightskyracing.blogspot.com/2011/04/rapid-redux-big-fish-now-swimming-in.html, is a masterpiece of multi-media and insight.  

Sid Fernando offers the best international perspective I know of at http://sidfernando.wordpress.com/. He's one of the most knowledgeable persons around when it comes to breeding. In fact, he's one of the most knowledgeable persons around when the subject has anything to do with racing.

Teresa Genaro's http://www.brooklynbackstretch.com/ is always a good read. She obviously loves racing (and cats), and the sport's fans are better off because of her passion and eloquence. Kevin Martin's Colin's Ghost, at http://colinsghost.org/, never fails to impress. Frankly, I'll often read something at a well-traveled site or in a popular publication and say to myself, That didn't tell me anything I didn't already know; or, that's an old idea I had weeks or even years ago. That never has happened at Colin's Ghost. Where else could you find out that from 1881to 1884 at various racetracks in New York and New Jersey, favorites won at a rate of 43 percent?

At http://foolishpleasure-valerie.blogspot.com/, Valerie Grash also takes an historical look at the sport. But she's relevant, too. And like Colin's Ghost, she'll often come up with some nugget from the past that astounds. Her writing is always sharp, and she has a very humane, very sensitive, perspective. She also has http://filliesfirst.blogspot.com/ -- love the Manet painting and the vintage photos, such as the one of Grecian Princess winning the 1964 Louisiana Derby.

I'm sure there are several good regional sites. But some transcend regionalism, such as Suebroux's http://postparade.blogspot.com/. She doesn't present herself as an expert handicapper or an equine pundit, but as somebody who just loves the game, especially when it's accompanied by a cool one at Lone Star. How refreshing. And Brock Sheridan, whom I've known and respected for many years, offers his insight at http://www.thebrocktalk.blogspot.com/. An interesting guy who has done just about everything at the racetrack but ride, he knows and loves the game. 

And, of course, for the more serious horseplayers, Steve Davidowitz's http://www.gradeoneracing.com/ is outstanding, with analyses and workout information and astute commentary.

I admire all these people. I respect their insight and perspective. And I envy them. I wish I could do what they do with video and photos; I wish I had the patience to dig through historical volumes and piles of photos. But I don't. Then again, because of their efforts, I don't have to. 

Anyway, with all these sites and dedicated people focused on the sport, you and I and horse racing are very fortunate.

 

Repole dodges questions, questions the wisdom of full disclosure

Mike Repole today said he didn't think horse racing would be wise to move in the direction of "full disclosure" regarding injuries or medical treatment. He did say, however, during today's NTRA teleconference, that he would reveal the full medical records of Stay Thirsty and Uncle Mo, his two Kentucky Derby candidates, if the owners and trainers of the other 18 horses running for the famed roses would do the same. That, of course, isn't going to happen, which might explain the offer.

Repole seemed to become defensive during today's teleconference when asked if Uncle Mo, the champion 2-year-old of 2010 who was the Kentucky Derby favorite before his loss in the Wood Memorial, had been pinfired following his juvenile campaign and whether the colt has had any physical issues since then. Pinfiring, or thermocautery, has been around for many years -- it goes back, in fact, at least to the 6th century -- and was believed to encourage rapid healing. Veterinarians in recent years, however, have expressed doubts about the efficacy of pinfiring. Some have called the treatment barbaric.

Repole never did answer the question about whether Uncle Mo had been pinfired, but instead launched into a brief harangue about whether such questions even needed to be asked. "I don't think this is something the industry wants to get into," he said.

He blamed Uncle Mo's loss in the Wood on the the intestinal infection that was discovered after the race and said the horse had no physical problems.

But Repole also said that virtually every racehorse, every athlete, has minor physical issues. And regarding a horse's readiness to race, he said fans and bettors just have to trust the owners and trainers and veterinarians.

Just trust us: That might seem a refrain from the Wall Street songbook. But Repole said he would never put a horse in an unsafe situation or race an animal that is not healthy and sound; the billionaire also said he would never subordinate a horse's safety to his ego.

 

A Day at the Races

GRAND PRAIRIE -- Saturday's $200,000 Texas Mile at Lone Star lacks -- well, let's not dwell on what it lacks. It has attracted five very good horses. Of course, it has attracted only five horses. From a bettor's point of view, it has attracted two reasonable options, two possibilities and one fantasy. But even that fantasy, Dreaminofthewin, has considerable talent.

When Dreaminofthewin ran second in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn, Archarcharch, who of course went on to win the Arkansas Derby, finished fourth. And if Dreaminofthewin improves nearly as much as Archarcharch has, he could be a factor here, and so maybe he's not so much of a fantasy after all. Fantasizing about Dreaminofthewin in the winner's circle wouldn't be comparable to, say, dreaming of Amy Adams knocking on your door to ask if she can borrow a cup of sugar. Still, he's a 3-year-old facing older horses, and he's meeting some rather accomplished elders.

The two reasonable options are Gladding and Thiskyhasnolimit. The two possibilities are Friesan Fire and Kate's Main Man. In handicapping this and all the other races at Lone Star, it's important to remember that the surface over the first six days of racing has favored stalkers and late runners. Speed hasn't held very well, and most of the winners have been a path or two or three off the inside rail.

That trend would seem to compromise Kate's Main Man, who led throughout to win the Essex Handicap at Oaklawn and who has drawn the rail here. Friesan Fire, the 2009 Louisiana Derby winner who was favored in the Kentucky Derby, also runs close to the pace. He ran well in his seasonal debut, leading until deep stretch at Fair Grounds, and a step forward could put him in the winner's circle.

But Gladding and Thiskyhasnolimit appear to be the more likely winners. They're in good form, and their running styles fit the current winning profile. Gladding won the San Antonio Stakes at Santa Anita in what was a bizarre race. The pace was so dawdling -- 48.72 for the half-mile and 1:13.41 for three-quarters -- that he was virtually handed the victory. Amazingly, he came home in about 35 seconds for the final three furlongs. But his allowance victory prior to the San Antonio was probably more indicative of his talents; there, he stalked a lively pace, got bumped around at the top of the lane and finished strongly to win by more than two lengths. Although he has sufficient natural speed to challenge for the early lead, he'll be more effective in the Texas Mile if he stalks.

And perhaps it's suggestive of the connections' serious intentions that Jon Court will come here to ride for trainer John Sadler. Over the years, Court has been bankable at Lone Star. He has ridden here only 28 times, but has won nine races. And in stakes, he's seven for 16, with victories in the Texas Mile, the Lone Star Derby and the Lone Star Park Handicap.

Thiskyhasnolimit most recently finished second in the Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn. And he was getting to the winner, a sharp stablemate named It Happened Again. Win Willy, who went on to win the Oaklawn Handicap, ran third that day. If Gladding gets involved in the pace, Thiskyhasnolimit could certainly run them all down.

Texas Mile selections: Gladding, Thiskyhasnolimit, Kate's Main Man, Friesan Fire.

Two other stakes are on the Lone Star program Saturday: the $50,000 Grand Prairie Turf Challenge and the $50,000 Irving Distaff. And both are very intriguing.

Baltimore Bob is the horse to beat in the Grand Prairie Turf Challenge, having won two of his last three while facing tough company at Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park. The Lone Star turf in recent years has been especially kind to early speed, but it hasn't played that way so far this season. Baltimore Bob is a versatile sort and will probably rally from mid-pack here.

Skip A Smile, however, wouldn't be a surprise. His trainer, Danny Pish, said he decided to run the Texas-bred gelding here rather than in the opening-day Premier Stakes because he believes Skip A Smile might be a little better on turf. He won the Richard King on the grass at Sam Houston and then turned in a terrific effort in the Fair Grounds Handicap, where he was beaten just three lengths.

Grand Prairie selections: Baltimore Bob, Skip A Smile, Snow Drift, Lee's Spirit.

The Irving Distaff is a wide-open affair, and just about any of the 12 fillies and mares in the field could win it. The trip could determine the outcome. But Skedee, who's making her seasonal debut, never has been worse than second on this course, and she always seems to run well fresh.

Irving selections: Skedee, No Other Tone, Slide On Bye, Pleasantly Blessed.

Another horse worth mentioning is Shocktime, a daughter of Langfuhr who'll make her debut in the first race for trainer Bret Calhoun. Shocktime has been working on even terms with Tamnation, who won his debut here Thursday night. They finished together after a half-mile from the gate (48.80) on April 8 and again on April 15.

 

A Texas-size Saturday

Ted Nugent and the excitement of opening having passed, Lone Star Park can focus on some good racing -- at least that's the hope -- this weekend. Three stakes will be run Saturday at Lone Star -- the $200,000 Texas Mile, the $50,000 Grand Prairie Turf Challenge and the $50,000 Irving Distaff.

The Texas Mile could attract a strong field. Among those expected are Thiskyhasnolimit, a multiple stakes winner who most recently finished second in the Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn Park, and Stachys, a multiple stakes who most recently ran fourth in the Oaklawn Handicap. Also among those nominated are Gladding, winner of the San Antonio Stakes at Santa Anita, and Kate's Main Man, winner of the Essex Handicap at Oaklawn.

The Irving Distaff, which matches fillies and mares at 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf, could attract stakes winners Bella Diamante, Golden Springs, Ice Mist, Skedee, Slide On Bye and Pleasantly Blessed. Skedee and Pleasantly Blessed are both approaching $300,000 in earnings. No Other Tone, who recently won her turf debut in Houston, could be an intriguing addition.

Danny Pish had considered running Skip A Smile in the Premiere Stakes on opening day -- the son of Skip Away is a Texas-bred and no doubt would have been tough in the Premiere -- but the trainer said he decided instead on the Grand Prairie Turf Challenge because he believes turf to be the horse's best surface. That's a recent discover.

After he won his debut easily here last year, Skip A Smile won the Ruidoso Derby in New Mexico. Running well on dirt, he didn't make his turf debut until January, when he won the Richard King Stakes at Sam Houston. And then he stepped into the deep end, running in the Fair Grounds Handicap in New Orleans. And he ran well, moving boldly into the lane only to falter in the final furlong. Although eighth, Skip A Smile was beaten only three lengths. 

Also among those expected for the Grand Prairie Turf Challenge are Alwayswithapproval, Baltimore Bob, Deputiformer, Snow Drift and Lee's Spirit.  

 

The Factor to Kentucky

It's not the way they had planned to go to Kentucky, not the send-off they had hoped for and perhaps even anticipated, but The Factor will soon travel to Churchill Downs to prepare for a possible run in the Kentucky Derby.

The Factor finished seventh Saturday as the 4-5 favorite in the $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, nearly nine lengths behind Archarcharch. Nehro ran second, with Dance City third. But the story -- or at least one of the stories -- was The Factor, who had looked so sensational while winning the San Vicente and the Rebel Stakes that he would have become the Kentucky Derby favorite with a victory in Arkansas.

But it was obvious, as Baffert said, that "they were coming after" The Factor in the Arkansas Derby. Five horses in the race were racing in blinkers for the first time. And JP's Gusto had been firing bullets in the mornings, seemingly in preparation for an early run at the Baffert speedster.

Baffert said he instructed jockey Martin Garcia "to take care of the horse" and, if others come "gunning out of the gate," to let them go. One of the earliest to load, The Factor stood in the gate for what seemed several moments before the start. And some others were indeed "gunning," most notably JP's Gusto, who led the field into the first turn and through the first three-quarters of a mile. The Factor seemed to have a good start, if not quite the burst he had in the Rebel, was put in a tight situation on the rail early and then eased back to third and to the outside. He advanced three-wide in the second turn but couldn't sustain his move.

"I thought we might be all right when when we got outside," Baffert said, "but Martin had to take a hard hold, and this horse displaces when you grab him -- that's why he lost his first race -- and Martin said he could hear him (The Factor) gurgling. . . .  So we learned we can never do that again."

Having learned much from the Arkansas Derby, especially that The Factor needs the lead and can't successfully be taken under a strong hold, Baffert said they'll move on to Kentucky.The Factor will train there for his next outing. And what about the Derby?

"It's just going to depend on what he does the next few weeks," Baffert said.

 

Handicapping the preps: The Arkansas Derby

The $1 million Arkansas Derby has become the most significant prep of this Triple Crown season. With a victory, The Factor could very well be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby. And with a good performance, a couple horses who might be Derby factors, if not The Factor, could punch their ticket to Kentucky. Of the 13 horses entered, 11 need significant paychecks to get into the Kentucky Derby, where the field will be limited, of course, to 20 based on graded earnings.

The Factor is clearly a freak, which is to say he not only defies expectations but obliterates preconceptions. He doesn't have a classic pedigree. As his trainer, Bob Baffert, said, he looks like a sprinter, and he runs like a sprinter, except for one thing: He just keeps running. He's a beautifully efficient mover. And nobody has discovered his "uncle" threshold: Nobody has forced him to run so fast early that he surrenders late.

In the Rebel Stakes, his first effort around two turns, he tossed down some lively fractions -- 46.77 seconds for the half-mile and 1:10.98 for three-quarters -- and then he just drew away to win by more than six lengths. The Rebel was one of the faster, although not the fastest, paced two-turn preps of the season. But The Factor just cruised.

Can anybody in the Arkansas Derby find his "uncle" threshold? Five horses in the field will race in blinkers for the first time in an obvious effort to encourage more early speed. And, of course, the potential for suicidal silliness always exists.

J P's Gusto is one of those who'll wear blinkers, and he has been firing bullets in the mornings, as if to suggest he has been cranked up to go early. Dance City led throughout when he defeated highly regarded Cal Nation at Gulfstream, and he, too, could force the pace. And so The Factor would appear to be more vulnerable here than he was in the Rebel, especially with an additional sixteenth of a mile. Still, The Factor is unbeaten on dirt, and his "uncle" threshold remains an unknown.

If The Factor does falter, Sway Away and Elite Alex are the most likely horses to upset. Both were compromised by a nightmarish trip in their last outing, and for Elite Alex the time could arrive soon to wonder if he's the sort who always finds trouble.

Elite Alex has encountered trouble in all three of his races this year. Most recently, in the Louisiana Derby, he dropped far back and rallied six-wide, making up 11 lengths while running the final three-eighths in 35.82 seconds. Since then he has had what appears to be an outstanding work in blinkers.

As for Sway Away, in the Rebel, where he was the 9-5 second choice off his powerful runner-up effort in the San Vicente, he charged the gate just before the latches sprung open, reportedly knocking out a tooth -- Jon White, I think, was the first to report the dental difficulty. But that was just the start of Sway Away's troubles. He was bouncing backwards when the race began and so broke poorly. Going into the first turn, he threw his head into the air when dirt hit him in the face. He advanced down the backstretch, only to be squeezed between rivals and forced to drop back to last. He rallied, but ducked  out, and after all that he was still trying and running hard down the stretch. He finished sixth, which, all things considered, was rather miraculous.

Several others are intriguing here. Archarcharch and Caleb's Posse have both won stakes at Oaklawn. Alternation has won three consecutive races. Brethren, Super Saver's little brother, looked like a Derby contender until his dismal effort in the Tampa Bay Derby. Nehro, having just finished second in the Louisiana Derby, is improving. And Truman's Commander could step up in his first start for trainer Nick Zito.

Arkansas Derby selections: The Factor, Sway Away, Elite Alex, Nehro.

 

 

 

 

 

 

If not Mo

It seems obvious but it's worth pointing out -- if only because, on this post-Mo day, nothing can be assumed -- that Kentucky Derby winners are usually moving in the right direction. In other words, they're improving, and that improvement is evident in their recent preparatory races. And so today, for the first time since I saw his debut last August, I find it difficult to imagine an Uncle Mo victory at Churchill Downs in four weeks -- difficult, but not impossible.

Far from moving in the right direction, Uncle Mo, in the final sixteenth of a mile of the Wood, went the other way Saturday, fading to third. And the Wood was not an especially strong race. The Aqueduct surface was very fast, and the winning time, 1:49.93, quite ordinary. Yes, credit Toby's Corner with a good effort; he made a strong move behind a modest pace. But based on my numbers, when adjusted for the different surfaces, the Wood was slower than Saturday's Santa Anita Derby. The Wood was slower than the Florida Derby, the Louisiana Derby, and the Rebel. Much slower than the Rebel. The Wood was comparable to the Sunland Derby.

And so it's difficult to imagine the Derby winner coming out of the Wood -- difficult, but not impossible. Remember the 2005 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park? Afleet Alex had run second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where a horrible trip cost him the victory, and then in his seasonal debut he turned in a spectacular performance to win the Mountain Valley Stakes. And in the Rebel, with expectations soaring, having stalked the pace, Afleet Alex faded to last as the 3-5 favorite.

He ran too poorly to believe. And his trainer, Tim Ritchey, didn't believe it. Back at the barn, as I recall, an examination revealed mucus in the colt's lungs. Afleet Alex had a lung infection. Some didn't accept that explanation, and so he was $2.40-1, barely favored over the Rebel winner (Greater Good, at $2.50-1), when he won the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths.

Perhaps there's also some reasonable explanation for Uncle Mo's weak Wood. Oh, yes, some will step forward today to proclaim themselves brilliant savants and sages of prognostication because, they'll say, they knew it all along. They knew Uncle Mo was phony. Right. With the same certainty, the same guys knew Smarty Jones was phony, too.

Despite what he has done this year and no matter what he may do from this moment forward, Uncle Mo was spectacular as a 2-year-old. He could be spectacular again. That's why his Wood was so shocking, so deflating. And that's why it still invites explanation. He "grabbed a quarter," meaning he stepped on himself, leaving the gate, but was that enough to explain his poor effort? Hard to say. And his Wood was hard to believe, but even if a reasonable explanation surfaces in the next few days or weeks, Uncle Mo will have far to go, much progress to make, if he's to be competitive in Kentucky.

Uncle Mo apparently was fine this morning, which is far better than I had hoped. I expected to hear of some injury, my thoughts racing back to Devil's Bag, and just hoped it would be minor. But Uncle Mo's connections are still looking to the Derby. And in eight days Uncle Mo will walk onto a plane and travel east to Kentucky. But otherwise he's moving in the wrong direction, which is to say he's moving too slowly.

Yes, it's axiomatic, self-evident: Derby winners generally move in the right direction. And Uncle Mo isn't; he still hasn't returned to the form of a year ago.

In recent years, only Street Sense in 2007 took a significant step backwards in his final prep before the Kentucky Derby, and that was because it was on a surface, Keeneland's Polytrack, that he hated. Street Sense regressed about five lengths from the Tampa Bay Derby, which he won, to the Blue Grass, where he was second. Before Street Sense, you have to go back to Thunder Gulch in 1995 to find a horse whose final prep for the Triple Crown represented a significant step backwards in performance, and that, too, was in the Blue Grass.

Other than Street Sense, every Kentucky Derby winner in recent years either moved forward significantly from his penultimate to his final Triple Crown prep or basically duplicated the effort. Smarty Jones' Arkansas Derby was a virtual repeat of his Rebel; Giacomo's fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby was basically a reprise of his runner-up effort in the San Felipe. Even while finishing second in the Wood, Monarchos nearly duplicated his Florida Derby performance. Some took a big step forward in either their first or second start of the year; Barbaro, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Fusaichi Pegasus and Charismatic all took a big step forward in their final start before going to Churchill. And they generally move in right direction.

But Uncle Mo didn't move forward in his seasonal debut in the Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park, and he didn't move forward Saturday. He still hasn't shown that brilliance of a year ago, except perhaps for a glimmer in the final quarter-mile in Florida, and he still hasn't matched his best efforts as a 2-year-old. And so at this point, it's difficult to imagine him making enough progress in the next four weeks to win the Derby -- difficult, but not impossible.

But if not Mo, then who? Dialed In's Florida Derby wasn't very fast, but he rallied on a track that was rather kind to speed. Still, horses with his late-charging style are at a disadvantage in a 20-horse field, and that running style usually doesn't win the Derby. The Factor has dazzled in his recent victories, but with Shackleford and Decisive Moment and Pants On Fire in the field, the pace will almost certainly heat up, compromising any front-runner. Midnight Interlude looked strong winning the Santa Anita Derby, and he's intriguing, if inexperienced; Mucho Macho Man had what appears to be a terrific workout Saturday, and he'll be tough in Kentucky, if he can avoid getting involved in the pace; Elite Alex, Sway Away, Nehro, Archarcharch and Caleb's Posse are all intriguing, too, but they're not even assured a place in the starting gate, their status depending on the outcome of Saturday's Arkansas Derby, which has become the most significant prep of the season.

And so if not Mo, who?  Well, if not Mo, the Kentucky Derby becomes what it usually is: a confusing, baffling, perplexing enigma. 

What will it take to get into the Derby?

I'm going to sponsor one of those find-a-cure walks. You know, the 5K walk where people show up early in the morning, before the first sparrow fart, all wearing their find-a-cure shirts, and then, led by somebody who has had a personal experience with the cause a la mode, walk up and down and around town, blocking streets and straining the vocabularies of motorists, who in frustration wreck their cars and run over pedestrians. Done to raise money, often for medical research, such walks take place somewhere, I suspect, every weekend. They're great, and mine will be, too, because I know just the cause, just the thing that needs curing. I'm going to sponsor a Walk to Find A Cure for Derby Fever.

Maybe Decisive Moment or Watch Me Go can lead the walk.

And if the Derby-Fever Walk fails to attract the attention it deserves, I'll just change the name. Syndromes, after all, are more sexy than fevers, and so maybe I'll call the effort the Walk To Find A Cure for Mine-That-Bird Syndrome.  I'm afraid, though, that it's too late to find a cure this year.

Nearly as many horses who don't belong as do are lining up to race in the famed Derby. It would all be amusing, and it would all be further evidence of the sport's democratic essence, if it weren't also so worrisome, and for two reasons: first, that running in the Derby can, and almost certainly will, seriously compromise the futures of the horses who don't belong; second, that these horses who would be better off leading the Walk To Find A Cure For Derby Fever will crowd out a few horses who actually should be racing on the first Saturday in May.

This is all possible, of course, because of the criterion -- earnings in graded stakes -- that determines the field of 20. By Churchill Downs' absurd formula, finishing second as a 2-year-old in the Delta Downs Jackpot counts for more than winning the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita or the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. That's why Decisive Moment -- who's a very nice horse, by the way, but just not a Derby horse, not by any stretch of graded earnings or feverish fancy -- is certain to have a reserved spot in the starting gate. He has $301,000 in graded earnings, most of it from his runner-up finish in the Delta Jackpot.

And so what will it take to crack the Derby 20 this year? Last year, $218,000 in graded earnings was needed, a record. 

Recent days have seen Premier Pegasus and To Honor And Serve, who were both assured starting spots, leave the Derby trail. Attrition no doubt will eliminate more horses in the next four weeks. But it's just as certain that the upcoming graded stakes will push a few horses into the top 20. Anthony's Cross ($162,000 already in graded earnings) and Silver Medallion ($124,334) probably need to finish in the top three of today's Santa Anita Derby if they're going to Kentucky.

The horse who finishes second to Uncle Mo today in New York may be able to get into the Derby field, even though he probably won't belong there. Much will be on the line in next weekend's Arkansas Derby, where only The Factor ($270,000) has punched his Derby ticket. Nehro ($200,000) and Archarcharch ($180,000) need to collect a paycheck, even if it's small, in Arkansas. Brethren ($155,000), Caleb's Posse ($71,504), Elite Alex ($65,000) and Sway Away ($61,500), however, need a good paycheck from Oaklawn Park if they're going to move on to Kentucky. And, of course, Keeneland's Blue Grass Stakes will produce at least one Derby starter.

All that considered -- one or two more from Santa Anita; one more, in addition to Mo, from New York; two or maybe three from Oaklawn and one from Keeneland;  but at least four defections from the Derby list of 20 -- I'd put the over-under on graded earnings needed to get into the Derby at $210,000. And I'd put at 8 the over-under on horses in the Derby only because of a certain fever we'll soon be walking to cure.  

 

Handicapping the preps: The former and present Santa Anita Derby

First, Premier Pegasus was declared out because of a hairline fracture, which was discovered Thursday after he stumbled during a routine gallop, and then Jaycito, who inherited the favorite's role, became questionable because of a foot abscess, which was first reported by Jennie Rees of the Courier-Journal. Jaycito might also be scratched, his trainer, Bob Baffert, told Rees.

The former Santa Anita Derby, where Premier Pegasus was the 8-5 choice in the morning line and Jaycito second at 4-1, would have produced one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby, meaning Saturday's winner would have been among the top three consensus picks in four weeks at Churchill Downs. And the former Santa Anita Derby glistened with intriguing possibilities and questions. Was Premier Pegasus as good as he looked coming down the stretch in the San Felipe, can he duplicate that effort, or will a quieter pace compromise him, and will Jaycito move forward in his second start of the year, and will somebody else, such as Silver Medallion or Anthony's Cross, emerge to challenge them?

But the present Santa Anita Derby -- well, if it's assumed that Jaycito comes out and runs instead in two weeks at Keeneland, which would be quite possible, even probable, the present Santa Anita Derby still looks like a basted turkey on Thanksgiving. Ok, it probably won't produce a Kentucky Derby favorite. (The three favorites at Churchill will be, of course, Uncle Mo, Dialed In and probably the winner of the Arkansas Derby.) But the race remains intriguing.

The Santa Anita Derby won't produce the meltdown pace that enabled Premier Pegasus to look like a superstar in the San Felipe. Remember that race: Corey Nakatani dispelled forever any notion that a clock is among the furnishings in a jockey's brain when, after a half-mile in 44.58 seconds, he sent Comma To The Top after the leaders, Albergatti and Runflatout. Actually, Comma To The Top broke sharply and had the lead before going three-wide in the first turn and then dropped back to third, but not too far back, and not tucked in behind the speedsters. He made the clear lead in 1:08.98 for three-quarters of a mile while racing wide and then drifted out as he staggered home. Still, Bench Points, who had a good trip saving ground until midway around the second turn, didn't get by him until inside the sixteenth pole. Comma To The Top finished fourth, beaten less than two lengths for second.

It was a huge effort, and he's very intriguing here, even if nine furlongs may be a little long for him. The question, though, is the pace. How fast will Comma To The Top have to run to have the lead or stalk? Although it won't be meltdown fast, the pace will probably be lively. Midnight Intrerlude has considerable natural speed, as he showed in his maiden victory. And since then he worked three-quarters in 1:10.60. That same morning, April 4, Game On Dude, the winner of the Santa Anita Handicap, worked the same distance in the same time. Did they work together? I don't know; I didn't ask their trainer, Bob Baffert, who had other concerns today; but it would seem likely.

And so if Midnight Interlude and Comma To The Top toss down some lively fractions, which seems very possible, the Santa Anita Derby should set up perfectly for Anthony's Cross. He'll be sitting a few lengths behind the leaders during the early running. Anthony's Cross, of course, won the Bob Lewis after Tapizar, as it turned out, was injured. He had stalked Tapizar's swift pace and then, after inheriting the lead, held on to win by a nose.

He ran the final three furlongs that day in 38.71, which isn't as strong as I'd like to see for a horse going to Kentucky. But it was his first race at the nine-furlong distance, and since then he seems to be training more sharply than ever. Two of his last three workouts have been bullets, as if the Bob Lewis flipped his switch.

And Silver Medallion should be very tough to beat here. Confined to synthetic and turf surfaces, he never has raced on dirt. But his trainer, Steve Asmussen, said the colt has been training very sharply at Santa Anita. The surface, Asmussen said, won't be a problem for Silver Medallion.

When he won the Camino Real Derby, Silver Medallion ran the final three-eighths of a mile in 37.45 seconds, and he did so over a surface that's not nearly as quick as Santa Anita's. If the pace heats up, Silver Medallion will become a very probable winner, and even if it doesn't, he's going to be formidable. He has proven he can stalk modest fractions and win.

Yes, there are other intriguing horses in here. Indian Winter, who looked terrible during his Arizona adventure, could find himself, and Mr Commons, who came home in about 24 seconds for his recent allowance win, could threaten if he steps forward, but the important thing to remember is that for purposes of investing in the short-term futures market, the present Santa Anita Derby is almost as interesting as the former, even if not quite as significant.

Santa Anita Derby selections: Anthony's Cross, Silver Medallion, Comma To The Top, Mr. Commons.