Horse racing

Showing support in Austin

Everybody knows that Texas horse racing is in trouble, moribund  -- well, everybody except Texas lawmakers. Even those lawmakers who, when it's convenient, pretend to know, which is to say around election time, forget during the legislative session. And so to remind them, about 1,000 people were at the capitol today in Austin, showing their support for horse racing, according to Dave Hooper, the executive director of the Texas Thoroughbred Association.

"The turnout was huge," Hooper said.

This was designated as the day to show support for the horse industry in Austin. And apparently there was quite a response. The supporters' focus is legislation that would allow Texans to vote on whether to permit racetracks to have video lottery terminals. Some of the revenue generated by the VLTs would be dedicated to support all breeds, as well as equine research and retirement.

Handicapping the preps: The Louisiana Derby

NEW ORLEANS -- These preparatory races leading  up to the Triple Crown are so intriguing because of the expectatons and possibilities that accompany them. Kelly Breen, who'll saddle a pair of horses in Saturday's Louisiana Derby, explained that at some point, if you're thinking about the Triple Crown and your horse didn't have the benefit of a telling juvenile campaign, you just have to make a leap.

That's what he's doing with Nacho Business, who as 2-year-old worked in company with Sweet Ducky, who'll run Saturday in Dubai for his connections. They seemed equals, but Nacho Business was compromised by shin and foot problems, and so he fell behind in his development. The Louisiana Derby is his leap.

Several horses in this Louisiana Derby field are making a leap: Nehro, for example, who rallied from far back for a maiden win at Oaklawn; and Mavericking, an accomplished turf horse who has trained well on dirt and will make his debut on the surface; and Left, a handsome heavy-headed horse who's unbeaten in two races and who from time to time has worked in company with the sensational Bind.

Some of these leaps I suspect will be successful -- that is, they'll end up on satisfactory if not winning ground. Yes, the Louisiana Derby is intriguing in part because of the combination of expectation and possibility, the same combination that could make for some rewarding payoffs in the short-term futures market. But it's also interesting because the Louisiana Derby could very well produce a horse or even two or three who are capable of making noise in the Triple Crown series. 

The most accomplished horse in the group, of course, is Mucho Macho Man. As a 2-year-old, the last time he was measured, he stood nearly 17 hands tall, and since then he has grown, said his trainer, Kathy Ritvo. And as the quarter horse guys would say, he jumps a long way, meaning he has a long stride.

And he seems to be putting everything together, his physical talents and his abilities, to settle into an effective running style. The key for him is indeed settling into that long stride. In the Holy Bull, a one-turn mile, the long run to the turn encouraged him to use his natural speed to get involved in a pace dispute, and then he didn't come home with energy, finishing fourth. But in the two-turn Risen Star Stakes, the blinkers came off, the short run to the turn discouraged him from going too fast early, he settled into his rhythm, and he gave one of the more encouraging performances of the season.

In his three two-turn races, he has two wins and a second, his only loss being to To Honor And Serve in the Remsen. In his four one-turn races, Mucho Macho Man has two seconds, a third and no wins. For him it's all about finding his rhythm. He doesn't have an explosive move, but when he finds his rhythm he just keeps rolling, and it's stunning.  

In his Risen Star, for example, he ran every quarter-mile virtually faster than the previous one. I say "virtually" because he ran the third quarter in 24.11 and the fourth in 24.12, but that fourth quarter was partly in the second turn (Adjusted for the turn, it would be 23.92).

The Louisiana Derby will be more difficult for him because the pace will probably be warmer, which means Mucho Macho Man might have to resist the temptation to run with the leader but instead settle a few lengths behind. Jockey Joe Bravo took Pants On Fire back in the Risen Star. That experiment didn't work particularly well since the colt finished sixth. Actually, though, Pants On Fire ran a deceptively good race, making a wide move in the second turn before going flat in the lane. And a week later, Breen explained, Pants On Fire was sick.

So he could run much better in the Louisiana Derby, and I suspect they'll allow him to use his speed this time. Le Mans and Wilkinson also have some speed, and so the pace should be solid. But if Mucho Macho Man settles just behind the leaders and finds his rhythm, he'll be very hard to beat.

Elite Alex scratched out of last week's Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn to run here. And even though he drew another outside post position, I think this move will work. He has more distance here and a longer stretch than he would have had at Oaklawn. Elite Alex, of course, has been the hard luck horse of the season, with a nightmarish trip in each of his races. He actually has sufficient natural speed to be mid-pack here, and if Calvin Borel can find his way through traffic, Elite Alex will threaten. He looked terrific on the track here at Fair Grounds.

Nacho Business could be dangerous. He won his debut at Gulfstream. In his second outing, he was rank down the backstretch behind a soporific pace, and then he finished strongly to be second. But he galloped out beyond the winner, Arch Traveler. Nacho Business could have won with a better trip or a faster pace. And he'll get both here.

Louisiana Derby selections: Mucho Macho Man, Elite Alex, Breen entry (Nacho Business, Pants On Fire), Left.      

Handicapping the preps: The Rebel

Oaklawn Park's Rebel is an intriguing race for a variety of reasons, not only for the congeries of questions it poses and for the answers it could provide, but also because the most important question for the moment isn't who's fastest. Everybody knows who's fastest among the 13 horses entered. (And, by the way, already there have been two scratches, Dreaminofthewin and Glint, with the possibility of at least one more, Elite Alex.)

The Factor, who set a track record for three-quarters of a mile at Santa Anita in December and then won the San Vicente, is clearly fastest in this group. And so the question of the moment is how far can he race effectively. Can he beat good horses while racing around two turns?

His pedigree suggests speed. As his trainer, Bob Baffert, said, The Factor looks like a sprinter, and he runs like a sprinter. So why did Baffert ship The Factor from California to Arkansas for stakes race at 1 1/16 miles? After his races, Baffert explained, The Factor hasn't seemed especially tired.

That was clear in the San Vicente. Yes, Sway Away closed with a rush and made up 6 1/2 lengths in the final three-eighths of a mile. But beyond the wire, The Factor galloped out strongly and was in front of Sway Away, who had the momentum, when they were pulled up. The gallop-out isn't always significant, but it could be in this case.

The key to The Factor's success around two turns, as it is for any horse, will be how he distributes his energy. When he set the track record, he ran the opening half-mile in 44.11 seconds and the final quarter-mile, incredibly enough, in 22.87. In the San Vicente, he ran the opening half-mile in 43.41 and the next quarter-mile in 23.90, or more than full second slower than he had in his previous outing, and then the final furlong in 12.93.

On opening day of its season, the Santa Anita surface was shockingly fast. And while it's still extremely fast, it was about 2 1/2 lengths slower at a half-mile for the San Vicente. The Factor was comfortable with that 44.11, but not nearly so comfortable after that 43.41. Granted, he had a longer run to the turn in the seven-furlong San Vicente; still, when the times are adjusted for the difference in the surface and for the run to the turn, The Factor ran about 3 1/2 lengths faster early in the San Vicente. Using more of his energy early, he didn't finish as strongly.

Is there anybody in the Rebel field to force The Factor through an opening half-mile that's uncomfortable? Probably not. Saratoga Red won his debut by virtually leading throughout, but he doesn't have The Factor's natural speed. The Factor should be able to control the pace with a comfortable opening half. Moreover, the first turn will force him to slow down. And under those circumstances how far can he run effectively? Perhaps 1 1/16 miles.

Sway Away also has traveled to Arkansas for the Rebel. In his seasonal debut and first start since August, the swayback flash ran the final three furlongs like a wild horse, in 35.68, to finish second to The Factor in the San Vicente, and he, too, will be making his first start around two turns. With his pedigree -- he's by Afleet Alex out of a Seattle Slew mare -- there's little doubt that Sway Away will appreciate added distance.

And he apparently has trained sensationally since the San Vicente, most recently working seven furlongs in 1:23.60. Not only was that the fastest move of the morning (March 12) at the distance, but it was also the fastest move of the Santa Anita meeting at the distance, as the venerable Jon White recently pointed out. Sway Away's trainer, Jeff Bonde, described the move as the best workout he ever has seen. And Bonde has been training horses for 35 years. Sway Away will be hard to beat.

Although Elite Alex is entered in the Rebel, his trainer, Tim Ritchey, said he's also considering the $1 million Louisiana Derby on March 26 for the colt. Whether he runs here or in New Orleans, Elite Alex needs only a clean trip to show his talent. In his seasonal debut, he bobbled and stumbled out of the gate and then raced wide. In the Southwest, he raced wide in the first turn and extremely wide in the second. Still, he never has finished worse than third. He'll benefit from the lively pace, but he'll need a perfect trip to threaten.

Alternation is intriguing. A handsome and improving colt, he has won three consecutive races. In his recent allowance victory, he actually finished faster than the colts in the Southwest, which was run the same day.

The Rebel selections: The Factor, Sway Away, Elite Alex, Alternation.    

  

 

 

Elite Alex possible for Louisiana Derby

Although he's entered in Saturday's $300,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Elite Alex could wait for the following Saturday's $1 million Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, according to the colt's trainer, Tim Ritchey.

The Rebel has attracted 13 entrants, including Sway Away and The Factor from California. Also among those entered are stakes winners Archarcharch, JP's Gusto and Caleb's Posse, as well as Alternation, a winner of three straight. A stretch-running son of Afleet Alex, Elite Alex drew post position No. 10.

In each of his races this year, both at Oaklawn, Elite Alex had to overcome a nightmarish trip, finishing second and then third. And, of course, the large Rebel field only increases the possibility that some horses will encounter traffic problems or have to race wide.

"We're just going to try to make the best decision for the horse," Ritchey said, pointing out that graded earnings, which could determine the Derby field, are also a factor. Ritchey said he would gather as much information as possible before deciding.

At 1 1/8 miles, the Louisiana Derby is a sixteenth of a mile farther than the Rebel, and, of course, the Fair Grounds' stretch is one of the longest in the country, factors that could also work to Elite Alex's advantage. At this point, only five horses are regarded as definite starters for the Louisiana Derby, with another five considered possible.  

 

 

Handicapping the preps: The Uncle Mo Show

It's called the Timely Writer Stakes, but it's really the Uncle Mo Show. Gulfstream Park changed the distance of the race from nine furlongs to a mile to attract the champion. And the track should be rewarded Saturday with a significant Triple Crown prep that in turn could attract a large crowd eager to see a colt who could indeed be very special.

Uncle Mo (shown below during a routine gallop Friday at Palm Meadows) was nothing but spectacular as a 2-year-old, winning his three races by a total of more than 23 lengths. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he stalked a solid pace and then filed the victory away with a fourth quarter-mile in 24.41 seconds. He was the most impressive 2-year-old I've seen since Easy Goer.

 
Photo by Yetta Feltner

The only question going into the Uncle Mo Show is whether after a layoff he's ready, and that's not really a question that'll lead to much head-scratching. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, is excellent at bringing horses back from a layoff, as he proved again last week with Stay Thirsty, who won the Gotham in his seasonal debut. Before he traveled to New York, Stay Thirsty reportedly had been working alongside Uncle Mo at Palm Meadows. And Uncle Mo won't have to be at his best to beat his five rivals in the Timely Writer.

Uncle Mo's owner, Vitamin Water billionaire Mike Repole, explained this week that he looks upon the colt's schedule this season as an enhanced duplication of his juvenile campaign. After winning his debut by more than 14, Uncle Mo won the Champagne by nearly five, and then he cruised in the Breeders' Cup. And so he gave what was arguably his best performance in his third start. His third start this year, after the Timely Writer and Wood, will be the Kentucky Derby.

Repole, by the way, is refreshing. Describing himself as a fan who as a youngster would go to Aqueduct with $20 in his pocket, he obviously and conspicuously loves the game. And he appears at this point to be that rare owner who's willing to put the sport and its competitors above self-interest. He could be just what horse racing needs.

"He won't change my life financially," Repole said about Uncle Mo. "But he could do something great for racing."

But, to return to Saturday's race, can anybody beat Uncle Mo? Of course, but that's not a possibility I would feel very comfortable investing in. Horses with such a huge advantage in talent, an advantage of several lengths, sometimes lose, circumstances can intervene, and reptiles from the star system Alpha Draconis could interfere. But Uncle Mo will probably win.

From an investment perspective, trying to hit an exacta will probably be more rewarding than trying to beat Uncle Mo. Madman Diaries is quick enough to control the pace, and he could be a rewarding complement to the favorite. That assumes, of course, that Uncle Mo, whose major objectives sit much further down the road, will allow himself to be rated off the pace. He indeed appears to be very tractable. And Rattlesnake Bridge, a handsome grey colt who rallied strongly to win his debut, should take a step forward with the added distance.

Timely Writer selections: Uncle Mo, Rattlesnake Bridge, Madman Diaries, Rocking Out.

 

Stepping up in the San Felipe

Back in 2007, Tiz Wonderful looked like the perfect Kentucky Derby prospect. He had speed, he had size and he had a stride that seemed to stretch to the horizon. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, loved the colt. He took pride in all those training titles he had won, but Asmussen would also point out that he didn't train horses to win titles. He trained horses so that he might have one like this, a horse such as this Tiz Wonderful, to lead into the paddock at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

As a 2-year-old, Tiz Wonderful was unbeaten, and when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, he defeated a terrific field that included Any Given Saturday, Dominican and Going Ballistic, who would all become major stakes winners. Yes, Tiz Wonderful looked like the perfect Derby prospect. And then he didn't. An injury took him off the trail and, as it turned out, compromised his potential. As a 3-year-old, he ran only twice and didn't get back to the winner's circle.

The horse's injury devastated Asmussen. He didn't resort to the that's-part-of-the-game or that's-racing cliches to try to explain it away or move beyond it or console himself. This was a terrific racehorse who never had the opportunity to become what his talent insisted he should be and who never had the chance to run for that celebrated blanket of roses, and nothing was going to change that.

But shortly after that, just a week or two later, the trainer became effervescent with his hopes and plans for a young horse recently purchased, after only one start, and moved to his barn. That was Curlin.

The sport's amazing capacity for restoring hope has been noted many times. It's a recurrent theme; yet it never ceases to amaze me. In 1984, after going unbeaten in five races as a juvenile and being celebrated in Time as the next Secretariat, Devil's Bag was the favorite for the Derby. But on May 1, his trainer, Woody Stephens, announced the colt would skip the Derby. Four days later, Stephens won the Derby with Swale and two days after that Devil's Bag was retired. Last year, Eskendereya looked like he might be capable of dominating his Triple Crown rivals. But an injury ended his career before he could ever race for the famed roses. His stablemate Super Saver, also trained by Todd Pletcher, won the Derby.

And so I'll watch Albergatti with special interest Saturday in the San Felipe at Santa Anita. Asmussen seemed to have the perfect Derby prospect with Tapizar, a long-striding colt that represented that rare combination of speed and stamina. But an injury forced him to the sidelines, and so now Asmussen will send out Albergatti in the San Felipe. And perhaps he'll send out Astrology in the Rebel Stakes on March 19 at Oaklawn Park, although those plans aren't definte.

"He's a big, tall, good-moving horse," Asmussen said about Albergatti, "and we hope we can stretch him out to the big-money distances. He's a fast horse."

Albergatti drew the rail, and so he could very well have the early lead as the field of 10 enters the first turn of the 1 1/16-mile race. But the San Felipe is loaded with the speed, for it includes Runflatout, Bench Points and Premier Pegasus, who are all quick and who all most recently raced in sprints.

Also in the San Felipe, Jaycito, who won last year's Norfolk Stakes, makes his seasonal debut. He has been training very sharply, according to his trainer, Bob Baffert. Completing the field are Surrey Star, Awesome Patriot, Comma To The Top, Jakesam and Qual Hill.     

An early line on Horse of the Year

Is Twirling Candy the best racehorse in the country? He could be. Or has he been beating ordinary horses in California? Maybe. But he beat Smiling Tiger sprinting, and Twirling Candy won the Strub with domination. Even if the opposition isn't especially formidable, the distance of the Santa Anita Handicap, where he'll try the classic 1 1/4 miles for the first time, could test him.

For the moment anyway, Twirling Candy looks like the best horse around. But that could change soon. Misremembered, who won last year's Santa Anita Handicap, returns Sunday in the Santana Mile. Some of these 3-year-olds also could be special. So this might be a good time to offer an early line on Horse of the Year.

1. Twirling Candy: 5-1

2. Uncle Mo: 6-1

3. Misremembered: 8-1

4. Giant Oak: 12-1

5. Dialed In: 12-1

6. Rule: 15-1

7. Haynesfield: 15-1

8. Successful Dan: 15-1

9. Sidney's Candy: 20-1

10. To Honor And Serve: 25-1

11. Morning Line: 25-1

12. Blind Luck: 25-1

13. Switch: 30-1

14. Gio Ponti: 30-1

15. Jaycito: 30-1

16. Big Drama: 50-1

17. Fly Down: 50-1

18. Always A Princess: 50-1

19. Soldat: 50-1

20. The Factor: 50-1

21: All others: 3-1  

Handicapping the preps: The Gotham

Over the years, some great horses have won the Gotham Stakes, including Native Dancer (1953), Dr. Fager (1967), Easy Goer (1989), Lure (1992) and, of course, Secretariat (1973). More recently the race has produced such standouts as I Want Revenge and Red Bullet.

Of course, Wasatch and Romano Gucci also won the Gotham, and they both concluded their careers in the claiming ranks. And so it's fair to wonder what group Saturday's winner will eventually join. But, of course, the winner will probably find himself in the much larger group whose accomplishments rest somewhere in the middle.

At least three horses among the nine entered for the Gotham are very intriguing. Foremost among them is Stay Thirsty, who finished fifth, but nearly 15 lengths back, in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Yes, he had some trouble in that race, as he has in most of his outings. But he's a beautifully bred horse, by Bernardini out of the Storm Bird mare Marozia, whose only victory was at 1 1/2 miles. That makes him a half-brother to several good horses who excelled at longer distances, most notably Andromeda's Hero. And Stay Thirsty's performance in the Gotham could provide some insight into Uncle Mo, the Breeders' Cup winner and juvenile champ who's regarded by most observers as the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. They have been training together in Florida.

But at 9-5 in the morning line, Stay Thirsty isn't very appealing from an investment perspective. After all, he has only one victory on his resume, a maiden race at Saratoga, where he controlled the pace. In his best efforts, he had an early lead. And with the speed in here he probably won't have the early lead but instead will have to stalk.

Toby's Corner is another intriguing horse. He has won three consecutive races, including the Whirlaway, where he defeated a solid field. JJ's Lucky Train, who was cruising along with a comfortable lead on the backstretch but couldn't handle Toby's Corner in the lane, returned last week to win a stakes at Laurel. And Toby's Corner ran the fourth quarter-mile in 24.68 on his way to the victory despite looking a little green. He was slow to switch strides -- that is, he didn't switch to his right lead until about mid-stretch. And when he did, he easily drew clear. He appears to have room for improvement.

The Fed Eased, who ran second to Crossbow in his debut, looked very sharp in his maiden victory. After a bobble at the break, he quickly recovered to assume control, cruising through an opening half-mile in 46.40 seconds and coming home in 24.34 to stop the teletimer at 1:10.74 after six furlongs, and without much encouragement, while winning by more than seven lengths. He could lead these into the stretch.

The Gotham selections: Toby's Corner, Stay Thirsty, The Fed Eased, Starship Caesar.

Results after five preps

Top choice winners: 2

Winners in top four: 3

Exactas in top four: 3

Trifectas in top four: 3 

Baffert on The Factor

Bob Baffert is an instinctive trainer. And his instincts, it seems, are telling him to stretch out The Factor, the speedy winner of the San Vicente at Santa Anita.

"He looks like a sprinter, and he runs like a sprinter," Baffert said about the colt who set a track record in his maiden victory at Santa Anita. "But the thing is: After a race, he doesn't seem tired."

And so Baffert said he's looking at two possibilities for The Factor's next start: The $800,000 Sunland Derby, at 1 1/8 miles, at Sunland Park in New Mexico, on March 27; and the $300,000 Rebel Stakes, at 1 1/16 miles, at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., on March 19.

As for Jaycito and Awesome Patriot, Baffert said he has them both aimed at the San Felipe on March 12 at Santa Anita. "That's the plan," he said, "unless I change my mind."