Horse racing

Ten for the Derby

Ten weeks to the Kentucky Derby -- seems like a good time to discuss a top 10.

1. Uncle Mo -- The announcement that the juvenile champ of 2010 will make his seasonal debut on March 12 in the Timely Writer became the occasion for some amusing opining. The second-guessers, who for the most part have never walked a horse around a shedrow much less trained a racehorse for a classic and who in many cases haven't seen Uncle Mo since last November if they've ever seen him at all, immediately hopped atop their soapboxes to proclaim this an unwise move. Starting his campaign with a one-turn mile won't have Uncle Mo ready for the Derby, the ersatz experts said.

I thought the Timely Writer plan rather silly because with the champ aiming at it the race seemed unlikely to fill. Here's your choice: Run against Uncle Mo at a mile for a purse of $100,000, or go up the road and run against Brethren at 1 1/16 miles for a purse of $350,000. That choice seems rather easy to me. But some folks might not see it that way. And Gulfstream will no doubt do its best, much to its credit, to give its patrons a look at the champ in action.

But I'm not going to suggest Todd Pletcher won't have Uncle Mo ready for the Kentucky Derby no matter where the champ begins his campaign. That would be presumptuousness beyond my comprehension, ersatz expertise at its most ludicrous. Yes, all things equal, I would prefer three preps for the Triple Crown to two; or, if two, I'd prefer them both around two turns. But that says more about me than it does any horse. And, frankly, I hope I'd be wise enough to tailor the campaign to fit the horse and not force the horse to fit mine or anybody's preconceptions about getting to the Derby.

Derby winners have a way of punching the certitude out of such preconceptions, and not just recently. Starting a campaign around one turn is a mistake? Well, all three Triple Crown winners of the 1970s began their historic campaigns in a sprint: Secretariat began in the seven-furlong Bay Shore, Seattle Slew in a seven-furlong allowance at Hialeah, and Affirmed in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Santa Anita.

And if one of them is a one-turn mile, two preps aren't sufficient? Well, how about this as a reminder that there are many ways to get to the Derby? When the great Regret won the 1915 Kentucky Derby, it was her seasonal debut. It was also her first race around two turns. She hadn't raced since winning the Hopeful nearly nine months earlier.

So Uncle Mo still sits solidly at No. 1 for me. He has experience at Churchill, he has experience in a large field, he has one of the top trainers in the game who, by the way, won last year's Derby, and, most important, Uncle Mo is just faster than these other horses. He could be very, very special.

2. Dialed In -- What an exciting year this could be. Dialed In also looks like a special horse. He's probably going to the Timely Writer, too, and then the Florida Derby, which means the Kentucky Derby will be the fifth start of his career. This is another case of a trainer, Nick Zito in this instance, tailoring the schedule to fit the horse. And, of course, Zito is masterful at hitting the big moments squarely.

3. To Honor And Serve -- Yes, despite his Fountain of Youth loss, I like his Derby chances better than Soldat's. I was surprised and disappointed that he didn't finish more strongly Saturday after a moderate pace. Very surprised I was, even though this was his seasonal debut. He seemed to be cruising early, and then he flattened out. But that was just a starting point. He'll be ready for the Florida Derby.

4. Soldat -- He looked terrific winning that allowance race in the slop, and he was outstanding again in the Fountain of Youth. But in his first outing of the season, he controlled a hypnagogic pace. Saturday, he was able to control a moderate pace. And so questions remain. Can he stalk? Can he withstand severe pace pressure? And is he peaking too early? I might have him too high.

5. Jaycito -- He flashed considerable talent as a juvenile, breaking his maiden in stakes company around two turns (the Norfolk). Most important, whenever I speak with him, Bob Baffert, Jaycito's trainer, makes it a point to tell me how well this colt's training. That's good enough for me.

6. Brethren -- I don't know quite what to think of Super Saver's little brother. He's a handsome colt, and he's obviously talented. He looks the part, he has the pedigree and he has the connections. He also ran the turn exceptionally well at Churchill Downs in his last start of 2010, and that's where the Derby is won. But his Sam Davis was so easy (and so slow) that I worry he didn't get much out of the race. I'm eager to see him challenged.

7. Mucho Macho Man -- I like the big guy very much. When he won the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he in effect accelerated throughout the race. Allowed to settle into his long-striding rhythm, he's very, very effective, and he could get better. He's a late foal. How about this as a possibility: After Uncle Mo wins the Derby and the Preakness, Mucho Macho Man spoils the Triple Crown bid in the Belmont.

8. Gourmet Dinner -- What an admirable horse. He won't win the Kentucky Derby, but he always gives a good effort, as he did by finishing second in the Fountain of Youth. But I wonder if he has much improvement remaining in his near future and if he's peaking too early.

9. Sway Away -- He's obviously a runner. The big colt finished like a locomotive to be second in the San Vicente, and he seems to be begging for two turns. But he's hard on himself, hitting the ground thunderously, and so he scares me.

10. Elite Alex -- I still think he could be one of the most talented horses of this crop, despite his third in the Southwest. He fell far back in that race and raced extremely wide; he could have ordered one of Oaklawn's famous corned beef sandwiches in his run down the lane. But he galloped out strongly. Still, in two races this year, he's had two nightmarish trips. I worry that he's becoming one of those horses who remind me of my youth: They always find trouble.

 

 

Handicapping the preps: The Fountain of Youth

Diving into the Fountain of Youth, I began to handicap the race, as I often do, by wondering if the favorite could be phony, if he's vulnerable, and if this might be an investment opportunity, possibly one of those rubberband-off-the-bankroll moments. After all, the Fountain of Youth will be the seasonal debut for To Honor And Serve, who hasn't raced since winning the Remsen in November. The 8-5 favorite in the Fountain's morning line, he has had only six workouts this year, and he's running a mile and an eighth after a layoff and even his trainer, Bill Mott, has made a point of reminding everyone that this race isn't the objective, that a Florida Derby and a celebrated blanket of roses remain the goals.

Ok, but that's still Bill Mott we're talking about here. I've known him for 25 years, and for nearly as long as I've known him I've known he's one of the best horsemen ever to tighten an overgirth on a racehorse. And this is still To Honor And Serve we're discussing, and as much as I would like to take a stand against an 8-5 favorite, I can't, not here, not in this case, because from what I've seen, and I've seen all his races and watched the Remsen several times, I think To Honor And Serve could be special, perhaps very special. 

And so for investment purposes, instead of trying to beat To Honor And Serve, the 8-5 favorite, it might be time to think more about the 2-1 second-choice, Soldat. Yes, he looked terrific when he won his last, an allowance affair, by nearly 11 lengths, but that was on a sealed sloppy track, and he was able to control a moderate pace, cruising through an opening half-mile in 48.28 seconds and six furlongs in 1:12.13. He came home in 37.09 for the final three-eighths, which is outstanding, and he completed  the 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.22, which is also outstanding. Still, he left some questions unanswered. After all, that was his first victory on dirt, and it wasn't really dirt, was it, but slop, and he skipped over it more than through it, so that he wasn't even mud-slavered when he stepped into the winner's circle. Can he duplicate that performance on a fast track? And can he finish as effectively when forced through faster fractions or when he doesn't control the pace and have everything presented to him on a silver salver?

If you're a horseplayer and aren't willing to settle for a $14 exacta -- and no self-respecting horseplayer should, unless it's ice-cream cold -- you have two options: Either you try to beat To Honor And Serve, or you try to beat Soldat. Or maybe I should put that another way: You try to beat To Honor And Serve, and I'll try to beat Soldat.

When To Honor And Serve (Can't you already imagine the names of his offspring: The Few The Proud; Chesty Puller?) won the Remsen, he went to the lead only because nobody else would take it. Mucho Macho Man had some natural quickness, and he left the gate alertly, but To Honor And Serve had the inside position and so he grabbed the lead in the turn; and then on the backstretch, his ears went up and he relaxed. When Mucho Macho Man challenged at the top of the stretch -- and the big guy dug in and reached out admirably -- To Honor And Serve pinned his ears back and opened up four lengths, and then John Velazquez, after using it five times, put his stick away, and the handsome colt relaxed again and the ears went up again, and how special was that?

If there were an abundance of speed in the Fountain of Youth field, if he might get caught wide or if I trained him, I would say it's time to take a stand against the favorite. But To Honor And Serve is lengths better. And he can have the early lead if he wants it, or whenever he wants it, which is to say he'll control the pace. And so he should enjoy a perfect trip, either on the lead or stalking, and a perfect return to competition.

And so if you try to beat Soldat and you're an exotic sort of person, where do you look for a complement to that exacta or trifecta you're considering? Gourmet Dinner, from here, looks solid. He's not going to win a Triple Crown race, and he'll probably never put a little golden bibelot on his mantel, but he's an admirable and genuine racehorse. The only thing on his resume that even approaches a poor effort, a fourth by five lengths, came on a synthetic surface, in the CashCall Futurity, after he had traveled halfway across the country.

And over this Gulfstream surface, only four weeks ago, he gave a performance that was not only encouraging but also confirming. After breaking alertly in the Holy Bull, he dropped back to next-to-last, and then he advanced strongly entering the turn, only to have to wait behind horses. He moved for a hole at the top of the lane and then finished with determination to be third, but 1 1/2 lengths behind Dialed In. But keep watching: Gourmet Dinner galloped out strongly, nearly on even terms with the winner and well ahead of Sweet Ducky, who finished second.

Some others here are interesting, too. Rank early and knocked sideways at the top of the stretch, Casper's Touch still finished strongly in his last outing, albeit 2 1/2 lengths behind Shackleford, who also returns in the Fountain of Youth. He should wish it were a fountain of wisdom or experience he were jumping into, however, for in the balance of things, Shackleford has altogether too much youth about him and not quite enough, not yet anyway, of those other virtues that are requisite for a Derby horse.

But he has what's most important: talent. A big, handsome, heavy-headed colt, Shackleford could be a very good horse down the road. While winning his seasonal debut and beating Casper's Touch, Shackleford raced three-wide in the first turn, rated comfortably, advanced easily, took the lead near the top of the stretch and then didn't have any idea what to do. He remained on his left lead, he ducked in and lugged in and seemed to contemplate a dip into the infield. Still, he won by more than two lengths. He probably doesn't have enough speed to avoid a wide trip in the first turn today, but he could purchase a piece of the pie.

Bowman's Causeway also intrigues. He's obviously taking a huge step, a Giant's step, from a maiden victory to a major stakes, but he made three distinct moves in his most recent outing, and that's unusual. It can also be a sign of unusual talent. Bowman's Causeway made a run, had to wait, made another, had to pause, and then finished strongly, running the final three-eighths in 37.50. He could be a racehorse down the road, too.

Fountain of Youth selections: To Honor And Serve, Gourmet Dinner, Shackleford, Bowman's Causeway.

Results after three preps: 

Top choice winners: 2

Winners in top four: 3

Exactas in top four: 3

Trifectas in top four: 2 (or 3, after the scratch of Indian Winter)

 

Handicapping the preps: The Hutcheson

Travelin Man, who made a sensational debut Jan. 6 at Gulfstream, returns in Saturday's Hutcheson Stakes. If he's as good as he looked that day, he should motor into the winner's circle again, even at seven furlongs.

But is he as good as that race suggests? That day, the Gulfstream surface was especially kind to speedsters. Four of the five winners on the main track were first or second after the opening half-mile. Still, Travelin Man's opening half-mile, 44.61 seconds, was a full second faster than the second-fastest half-mile split that day, and that was at 6 1/2 furlongs, which means there was a longer run to the turn. And Travelin Man came home with a final quarter in 24.48 to stop the teletimer at 1:09.09 after six furlongs. A day earlier, Final Mesa won the Old Hat Stakes in 109.75.

Travelin Man is obviously very fast, and although the Hutcheson has attracted some speedsters, nobody else in the field has his natural zip. And so he's the one to beat. If he discourages the other speedsters, such as Flashpoint, that could open things up for somebody running late to complete the exotics.

Black N Beauty is intriguing. He got burned on the pace in the Holy Bull, trying to go with Mucho Macho Man, who, of course, returned to win the Risen Star, but Black N Beauty could be effective turning back in distance. Crossbow just won at this distance and appears to be learning to control his natural speed. And Madman Diaries, who won the Sapling last year in his only race on dirt, could benefit from the removal of blinkers.

Hutcheson selections: Travelin Man, Black N Beauty, Crossbow, Madman Diaries.

Results after three preps: 

Top choice winners: 2

Winners in top four: 3

Exactas in top four: 3

Trifectas in top four: 2 (or 3, with the scratch of Indian Winter)

 

 

 

Still wondering while in an interrogative mood

Isn't naming a stakes after Timely Writer like naming a regatta after the Titanic?

If you were superstitious, and who in racing isn't, would you jump into a race named for a horse who after winning the 1982 Flamingo and Florida Derby nearly died from severe colic? And if you were superstitious, would you aim your Derby candidate and potential stallion star at a race named for a horse whose severe colic forced him to miss the Kentucky Derby in which he would have been heavily favored and who then, after returning to top form, broke down in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which was probably going to be his final race before a stallion career? Granted, Timely Writer should be honored, and not just at Belmont Park, where he was buried, for he was a terrific horse; but since he collapsed with a sundered foreleg and his breakdown led to a horrific spill that in turn resulted in two horses being euthanized, and since his name is synonomous with greatness unrealized and not just with bad luck but with pluperfect, incomparably dreadful luck, wouldn't a plaque suffice? And so I'm just wondering if there are enough superstitious trainers out there to prevent the Timely Writer Stakes from attracting more than, say, two entrants, or could there be another reason trainers might not enter?

And how good will Risen Star Stakes winner Mucho Macho Man be when he grows up? A late foal, he was 2-4 months younger than his rivals in the Risen Star, which doesn't seem like much but can be significant for young horses this time of year, and so could he be this season's Lemon Drop Kid, a late foal who wasn't at his best in the spring but began to mature in time to win the Belmont? Or, since he's already huge, could Mucho Macho Man outgrow his biomechanical efficiency and become too big when he grows up? And won't it be exciting to watch his development?

And how good is The Factor? Although he didn't set a track record while winning the San Vicente, as he had in his maiden score, didn't he validate his quality Sunday with a performance that was much, much more impressive, not only because of the stellar competition but also because he endured more pace pressure and, in fact, tossed down some rapid fractions, such as 43.41 seconds for the half, while disposing of the very quick City Cool? For me, his final figure equaled his pace figure in the San Vicente, which is unusual and suggests he could certainly stretch out if he'll only relax for a few jiffies, or 50.1 milliseconds, but from here, because he doesn't seem very interested in slowing down, if only for a moment, The Factor looks like he's probably going to be a sprinter or a miler, at least for the nonce, and if that is indeed how it plays out, won't he be a sensational sprinter-miler and aren't his connections wise for not thrusting him immediately onto some imagined path that points in the direction of Kentucky?

And how scary is Sway Away, who ran the final three-eighths of a mile in about 35.68 to finish second in the San Vicente? Are his connections considering races elsewhere for him in part because he's a huge colt who hits the ground thunderously and so might not be best suited for Santa Anita? And wouldn't his participation add some intrigue to the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park? 

Speaking of Oaklawn, wasn't that Southwest Stakes, with the speedsters stopping suddenly and everybody piling up, and with some horses being blocked and others forced extremely wide, strange? Or was it merely disappointing? I thought the top three ran fairly well -- Archarcharch, who raced in traffic through the first turn, to win; J P's Gusto, who had momentary trouble in the second turn and in deep stretch, to be second; and Elite Alex, who raced five-wide in the first turn and took the grandstand-apron path to the wire, to be third -- but that final time, 1:38.23 for the mile, was only a second faster than a maiden's clocking (Nehro in 1:39.20) in the previous race and only slightly better than Alternation's 1:45.24 for the 1 1/16 miles in the seventh race, and so, everything considered, the trouble and the strangeness and the medicocre time, isn't the jury still out on this Oaklawn group? Is the jury still out on everybody, and is it going to stay out until May 7, or is it just out to lunch?

But, in true Nietzsche fashion, shouldn't all those horses benefit and learn from that Southwest as long, of course, as they came out of it unscathed? And while Nietzsche didn't train horses, he might have been on to something, don't you think? And don't you have to wonder if, in terms of lessons that might prove valuable while racing against a crowd of 19 rivals, those colts who prep in small, very small, and maybe even two-horse small fields will lack some important education? That isn't to say such education is essential, a sine quo non, for roseate victory, but history suggests that horses with experience racing in large fields generally have more success on first Saturdays in May, and isn't it Timely to wonder about such things?   

Handicapping the preps: The Southwest

This class of 3-year-olds is starting to look outstanding, and the two leaders of the group, Uncle Mo and To Honor And Serve, haven't even raced yet. The Factor dazzled again while winning today's San Vicente, completing the seven furlongs at Santa Anita in 1:20.34. The distance question still looms, but he obviously possesses enormous talent. And Sway Away gave an outstanding performance to finish second, rallying from far back. Premier Pegasus ran third in a useful outing that should move him forward.

Mucho Macho Man won Saturday's Risen Star stylishly at Fair Grounds. The big colt looks as if he'll be very effective at longer distances, too, as long as he's able to get into his long-striding rhythm. But the most promising horse to race Saturday in New Orleans might have been Bind, who won his debut in sensational fashion. His trainer, Al Stall Jr., won't rush him along, but Bind could be among the division leaders by the fall.

And I expect another outstanding prospect to emerge from Monday's Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The Southwest is rife with speed. Three of the 11 horses entered most recently raced around one turn. Four others were on the lead or, in the case of Archarcharch, vying for the lead in two-turn races. The pace, in other words, should heat up, and the race set up beautifully for somebody running late.

J P's Gusto is the 9-5 favorite in the morning line, and having won the Del Mar Futurity he's clearly the most accomplished member of the field. But he has many things working against him here. He only recently changed barns and venues, moving from the California stable of trainer David Hofmans to his Oaklawn residence with trainer Joe Petalino.

Most important, his best efforts have been in sprints and on synthetic surfaces, where the pace tends to be moderate and where he was able grab an early advantage or race within close striking distance of the lead. That could mean trouble here.

If he's with the early leaders in the Southwest, he'll probably be going too fast for his own good and won't finish with much energy. The other option is that he finds himself in a somewhat unfamiliar position, four of five lengths back early. Can he win from there? Possibly. But at short odds, that's not a question I care to ask. He's a horse of quality, and he gave a sharp performance to be second in the CashCall Futurity; so it would be unwise to toss him from consideration, especially since California imports have run so well at Oaklawn in recent years. But from here, Elite Alex looks much more attractive.

Elite Alex has raced only twice, winning his debut in July and then returning opening weekend at Oaklawn, where he had, well, an eventful journey. He broke awkwardly, staggering out of the gate, and  then he stumbled badly. By the time he recovered, he was 10 lengths back. He rallied five-wide in the second turn only to lose by a head to a highly regarded colt named Alternation.

His trainer, Tim Ritchey, said Elite Alex probably should have won by 10. Having watched the race several times, I'm inclined to think the combination of the troubled start and the wide trip probably did cost the son of Afleet Alex about 10 lengths. And if he had won by 10, with a speed figure of 98, he would probably be among everybody's top five Derby candidates; moreover, he'd be 7-5 in the morning line for the Southwest instead of 4-1.

Ritchey said he has "very high expectations" for the colt. And that has been apparent for some time. Even as a 2-year-old, Elite Alex was working in company with older horses. And outworking them. Since his loss, where he got, if nothing else, some conditioning and considerable experience, he has continued to train sharply.

Four horses in the Southwwest come out of the Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 17. Because of some foul weather that loitered in the region for weeks, the Oaklawn surface was as slow as a slug early in the season. Caleb's Posse, for example, won the one-mile Smarty Jones in 1:43.03. But he actually gave an admirable performance as he has continued to outrun his pedigree. And he's one of the horses here who has proven he can stalk or rally effectively.

Archarcharch was on the pace in the Smarty Jones. When the long-legged son of Arch won the Sugar Bowl Stakes in New Orleans, he looked like a horse that might improve with added distance. In the Smarty Jones, however, he faded to fourth. But the half-mile split for that race, 47.84 seconds, was deceptively fast. At a half-mile, the track that day was about 11 lengths slower than it is now. And if you think of that 47.84 as being more like 45.64, it's clear why Archarcharch retreated, along with Grant Jack, who finished last. Archarcharch could improve significantly in the Southwest.

Two other long shots worth mentioning are Derivative and Yankee Passion. From the stable of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, Derivative led throughout to win his most recent outing. And he could grab the early advantage here. Yankee Passion won his seasonal debut impressively while sprinting, and his pedigree suggests he could improve as he stretches out.

Southwest selections: Elite Alex, Caleb's Posse, J P's Gusto, Archarcharch.

       

Handicapping the preps: The San Vicente

The Factor, aka Mr. Excitement, returns in Sunday's San Vicente. His trainer, Bob Baffert, the snow-capped sage, said he thinks this race will put The Factor "back on track." Where exactly that track will take the calcine gray colt, however, remains unclear. To the Triple Crown series? Possibly. But to get there, he's going to have to show a willingness to control his speed, something he didn't do in his sensational maiden victory. 

And the San Vicente, which has attracted an outstanding field, could be the perfect place to test his willingness to do that. When The Factor scored by more than eight lengths on opening day of the Santa Anita season, he set a track record (1:06.98) for three-quarters of a mile and instantly became a sensation. He's plenty fast and plenty good. The question, though, is distance. How far can he effectively carry his speed?

His sire, War Front, was primarily a sprinter, finishing second, for example, to the rapid Henny Hughes in the 2006 Vosburgh. But War Front did indeed win a minor stakes at 1 1/16 miles. And The Factor's dam, Greyciousness, also won at 1 1/16 miles, albeit on turf. His pedigree, in other words, suggests speed, but The Factor has a Dosage Index of of 2.73, and longer distances aren't necessarily beyond his reach.

It could all depend on his temperament. Baffert said The Factor has a tendency to get "worked up," which is why he sent the colt over to Hollywood Park to train, away from the racing activity at Santa Anita. An excitable, high-strung horse isn't likely to be at his best at longer distances. And so I'm inclined to think The Factor will be a sprinter, but at the same time, I'm keeping an open mind.

But this, of course, is a sprint. And so The Factor is clearly the one to beat. Perhaps the most remarkable thing about his maiden victory, aside from the final time, was his final quarter-mile. He finished in 22.87 seconds after an opening half-mile in 44.11. Yes, the surface was downhill-fast; still, that's sensational.

City Cool, who set the rapid pace (43.69) in the San Pedro, is quick enough to grab the early advantage in the San Vicente. The Factor has proven he can throw down some dazzling fractions and finish strongly. Still, if he could relax just off of City Cool -- granted, that could be a wild wish -- he would take a step toward learning to control his speed.

Santa Anita could be muddy or sloppy for the San Vicente, which adds some uncertainty to the affair. The nine entrants never have raced in the mud. And it's unclear how this new surface will play when it's wet.

So for the adventurous, there are reasons to try to beat The Factor, who's the 8-5 favorite in the morning line. The main reason is that the hot pace could set the race up for closers such as Indian Winter, Sway Away and Sinai.

Indian Winter's only loss came after a troubled trip in the Del Mar Futurity. He defeated Jaycito in his debut, and Indian Winter rallied four-wide to win the San Pedro, changing strides a little late. He has considerable room to improve and is a promising colt whose future could brighten as the distances stretch out.

His momentum interrupted entering the turn in the San Pedro, Sinai still fought on gamely to be third. He could step forward with another sixteenth of a mile. And Sway Away, who's returning from an injury after flashing potential as a juvenile, appears to be training sharply. He recently worked three-quarters of a mile out of the gate in 1:11.80, matching Privilaged, who ran third in last year's Swale, for the bullet.

And I should mention Premier Pegasus, the unbeaten son of Fusaichi Pagasus who won two stakes last year. He doesn't have the early speed of The Factor or City Cool and so will be in a somewhat unfamiliar position early. But that's good. He'll learn from that, and since he has had only three published workouts this year, I have to believe the real objectives for him are down the road, where he might turn out to be the best of this group.

San Vicente selections: The Factor, Indian Winter, Sway Away, Sinai.  

 

Handicapping the preps: The Risen Star

Over the years, the Risen Star Stakes has been a terrific race and a productive Triple Crown prep. Even the American Graded Stakes Committee has figured that out, although it required a while to do so. The Risen Star has produced such horses as War Emblem, Lawyer Ron, Discreetly Mine, Friesan Fire and Pyro. Back in the days when it was known as the Louisiana Derby Trial, the race was a stage for such horses as Master Derby, Run Dusty Run, Linkage and, of course, the great Risen Star.

Today's renewal will prove to be -- well, who knows? That's why these preps are so invitingly intriguing this time of year: They're a blind date; they're a ride into the Fun House at the State Fair. You could look back on it several years from now and say, "I remember when I saw Fillintheblank win the Risen Star." Or you could look back and say, "I don't remember very clearly, but maybe I was out celebrating the 250-year anniversary of the mashie niblick."

But even on a blind date, and even when you plunge into the Fun House darkness, first impressions can be valid. Was that a spider or maybe a ghost? Or could it have been a warm whisper? The first impression of today's Triple Crown prep at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, for me anyway, is quite positive: Yes, it could produce some Triple Crown starters; it even could launch a horse or two onto a noisemaking campaign.

The favorite in the morning line at 3-1 is Rogue Romance, a hansome colt who will be making his first start of the season since finishing third in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Although he finished far back in that race, more than 10 lengths behind Uncle Mo, Rogue Romance gave an admiral performance. He raced wide around both turns and drifted in down the lane. And that, after three turf starts, was his first race on dirt. As a 3-year-old, he can reasonably be expected to build on that.

But will he move forward today, in his first start of the season, his first start in more than three months? Maybe. His trainer, Kenny McPeek, said he's as confident about Rogue Romance as he was about Repent in 2002. Repent won both the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, and having been there for both races, I remember McPeek had good reason to be confident. And his confidence probably has grown in retrospect. No matter: McPeek's faith in Rogue Romance, however genuine and sincere, won't make the colt run any faster.

The question is whether Rogue Romance will step forward from his Breeders' Cup Juvenile. After all, these young horses are growing and maturing and improving. And if Rogue Romance improves, if he steps forward, he'll probably win today. But usually, in a horse's first start at 3, you're looking for just a duplication of his best juvenile effort, given it was late in the season, not for meaningful improvement. (If a horse hasn't raced since the summer of his 2yo season, then you could reasonably anticipate a leap forward.)

If Rogue Romance simply duplicates his Juvenile effort, he could very well win, too. But even that's uncertain. Prior to the Juvenile, he was training like Pegasus; he was buzzing, sizzling, trailing plumes of promise. In his final preparatory work, he went five-eighths in 59 seconds at Keeneland; prior to that, he dazzled with a 58.40. He shot two bullets before the Juvenile, and then he fired a big shot at Churchill.

Going into today's race, he has had six workouts since his respite, the latest being a five-eights move in 1:02 at Gulfstream Park, and none of his works, at least on paper, are reminiscent or suggestive of those at Keeneland last fall. Is that meaningful? Maybe. I haven't seen his works, and so I hesitate to jump, or even sidle, to any conclusion. But the layoff and the workouts, combined with the unfamiliar surface and  the travel, are all reasons to suspect that Rogue Romance won't move forward, that he may not quite duplicate his best juvenile effort and that he's very vulnerable.

At 4-1, Mucho Macho Man is the second-choice in the morning line and, from here, a more attractive investment prospect. He's a huge colt with a long stride, and when he gets into a comfortable rhythm, he can be very effective, as he demonstrated when second in last year's Remsen. And so the one-turn-one-mile Holy Bull was probably an unfortunate occasion for his seasonal debut. He was fresh and sharp, and the long  run to the turn simply encouraged the big guy to go too fast too early.

Pressured, he ran the opening half-mile in 46.24, which doesn't seem fast (the opening splits for all one-mile dirt races at Gulfstream are distorted because of the gate placement) but was nearly a full-second faster than the comparable split (47.17) for the other one-mile race that day. Dialed In, you probably recall, rallied from far back like a whirlwind, and Mucho Macho Man, while running the final quarter-mile in 25.76, faltered to finish fourth.

He's one of four horses today who are capable of leading early. But for the first time, he'll race without blinkers. And so although he's natuarlly fast, Mucho Macho Man is more likely to find himself behind a horse or maybe two in the early running. Perfect. That and the shorter run to the turn will force him to slow down and enable him to discover his effective rhythm.

With a good post position and natural speed, Decisive Moment is most likely to be the early leader today. Others are as quick, but he has been most effective on the lead. Most recently, he led throughout to win the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta, and in doing so he grabbed the early advantage from a quick colt named Su Casa G Casa. That 47.40 half-mile split in the Jean Lafitte is much better than it might appear. Delta has a small oval that isn't very fast. And Decisive Moment's half-mile split, although looking modest, actually was the fastest of the night at the distance (48.60, 48.62 and 47.58 being the others). Second to Grourmet Dinner in the Delta Jackpot, Decisive Moment is a reliable and talented colt who'll probably be tough to run down in the Risen Star.

Machen, who's 6-1, is intriguing. Some people whose opinions I respect like his chances today and believe he could develop into a future star. And, frankly, I hope they're right. His trainer, Neil Howard, is such a great horseman and deserving person that a Machen victory would be cause to celebrate. But, well, I'm sketical. And, yes, I'm almost always skeptical.

Unbeaten in two races, both at Fair Grounds, Machen physically looks like a sprinter. And sprinting, he won his debut in jaw-dropping style. When he stretched out, to a mile and 70 yards, he also won impressively, but from this perspective, he proved very little that day, if anything. Hesitating a moment at the start, he immediately found himself behind horses, which was actually a blessing because that forced him to restrain his speed. But he wanted no part of restraint. He resisted, his mouth wide open in protest, every fiber of him straining against jockey Jamie Theriot.  "Covered," Machen had nowhere to run, and he hated it. At the top of the lane, Theriot found a crease, aimed Machen at it, and the colt finished with a burst.

That looked impressive, his winning by more than five lengths, drawing away with each stride through the lane. But, frankly, he beat a woeful group. And of course he finished fast; he had crawled, like some creature trying to emerge from the Mesozoic fens, for most of the race. The opening half-mile was 50.68, with a three-quarter split of 1:15.61. And did that performance prove he can carry his speed around two turns? No, he didn't run around two turns, not really; he sprinted for a quarter-mile. And the outcome produced the slowest race of the day at the distance, at 1:44.60. A filly named Harbor Fox won her debut in 1:44.09. A venerable old claimer named Jiminator won in 1:43.02. In other words, the race proved nothing, absolutely nothing, about Machen, neither positive nor negative. But although it proved nothing, it could set him up to prove something today.

At 6-1, Santiva could be an underlay, which is to say he probably won't be a bargain today. Nevertheless, somebody will complete the trifecta and the superfecta, and he's mildly interesting for such pursposes. Like Rogue Romance, Santiva is also making his seasonal debut. And if he duplicates his best juvenile effort, he'll probably finish fourth.

When he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November at Churchill, he was actually one of the  least impressive winners of the day. He completed the 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.31. That same afternoon, Kathmanblu won the Golden Rod in 1:44.48, and Tapizar scored his maiden victory in 1:44.19. Brethren, by the way, also won that day at Churchill. And so Santiva didn't make much of an impression, not here anyway.

But he recently worked five-eighths at Palm Meadows in 1:00.40 in preparation for his return, tying Golden Moka, who was fifth in the last year's Super Derby, for the bullet. That morning, Soldat worked the same distance in 1:01.20. Meaningful? Well, maybe it means Santiva is ready for a good effort, but that probably won't win.

For long shot purposes, Justin Phillip could be interesting. As the even-money favorite, he broke poorly and raced wide on his way to a clunker of a performance in the LeComte Stakes. But that was his first start with blinkers, and they'll come off today. He also has run erratically, by the way, without blinkers, but he has sufficient speed to be an early factor, and he has talent.

Selections: Mucho Macho Man, Decisive Moment, Rogue Romance, Santiva.

       

  

Tapizar injured, off the Triple Crown trail

Tapizar, one of the early favorites for the Triple Crown, came out of Saturday's Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita with a chipped knee, said his trainer, Steve Asmussen. The colt will be sent to the Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington, Ky., where veterinarian Larry Bramlage will remove the chip.

"We'll do right by the horse, of course," said Asmussen, "and hope that he can come back and prove what a great horse he is."

A knee chip typically requires at least six weeks, and often more, of convalescence. That means Tapizar is off the Triple Crown trail.

Asmussen blamed the injury on the horse's attitude. Tapizar was rank during the early running of Saturday's race, insisting that he have the early lead and eagerly straining to run faster even when clear. He faltered down the stretch, however, and faded to fifth as the 1-5 favorite. Speculation would argue, of course, that he chipped the knee while leading the field through an opening half-mile in 45.64 and three-quarters in 1:09.92.

Prior to the injury, Tapizar had won the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita by more than four lengths. It was there that he pronounced himself to be a top candidate for the famed Triple Crown series. The handsome son of Tapit led throughout to win the Sham, completing the 1 1/16 miles in 1:40.38, about six lengths off the track record. Anthony's Cross, who won Saturday's Robert B. Lewis, finished third in the Sham, about nine lengths back.

And Tapizar already had shown a fondness for Churchill Downs, the site, of course, of the Kentucky Derby. He scored his maiden victory there in November by more than 10 lengths.

Although finding it painful to talk about the colt's injury, Asmussen said he thought it important to get word of it out among the public to forestall bets on Tapizar in Kentucky Derby Futures. Churchill Downs will open its first of three Futures pools Friday.  

 

For pure sport, give me the Breeders' Cup over the Super-in-every-way Bowl

Is anything more overdone, overblown and overhyped than the Super Bowl? Does anything produce more cliches, more predictability and more made-for-media events? Is anything in sports preceded by more hoopla, more hyperbole and more partying?

North Texas just had its first Super Bowl, and some people, especially those who are chronically captious and who can't help but be wimpy whiners, already are saying it'll be the area's last Super Bowl, as if we're to blame for the country's broken thermostat. For such people and for many others, memories of XLV will forevever focus on the apocalyptic weather, on the sleet and snow and biting temperatures that descended on the area like plagues.

But from here, the lasting impression, which is to say the conclusion that will remain after all other memories have melted away, is this: The Super-in-every-way Bowl isn't about football. Nor is it about greatness: The Packers and Steelers were very good, but hardly great, teams. No, for pure sports competition that sets the stage for the emergence of greatness, give me the Breeders' Cup every time.

The Super Bowl has never been about football, not really, but has always been about peripheral concerns, such as television. That was true even from the start. Pat Summerall, the legendary announcer, worked that first Super Bowl in 1967 between Green Bay and Kansas City. The game was an unnecessary inconvenience, Summerall said, from the perspective of the Packers, who already thought of themselves as the champions; after all, they had defeated the Cowboys in the NFL title game. And this Supersomethingorother was only interfering with their vacation. The Packers, Summerall recalled, hardly took the game seriously.

Since the NFL and AFL each had its own television contract, the game was broadcast on two networks, with the crews sharing and alternating responsibilities. Summerall did play-by-play for the first half and became a sideline reporter for the second. Leading 14-10, Green Bay kicked off to begin the third quarter and contained the Chiefs deep in their own territory. But then the director instructed Summerall to go ask Packers Coach Vince Lombardi if he would mind kicking off again. Because of an interview with Bob Hope, television had missed the start of the Super Bowl's second half. Summerall, to his eternal credit, refused to ask the coach such an absurd question, but, amazingly enough, somebody did make the request, and, even more amazingly, Lombardi complied. But, of course, he complied because the first Super Bowl wasn't about football. And it never has been.

Even beyond, or beneath, the Super Bowl, football isn't really about football. Underneath the patina of sport, the game is actually about war and upheaval and violent socialism. It's about faceless armies clashing. Sports reflect the societies that give them birth and nurture them into popularity, and is it coincidence that football has become the most popular sport for a society so violent that it produces entertainments, video games, that simulate deadly confrontations, the more realistic the better, so violent that like ancient Rome it finds amusement in gladitorial combat, so violent that its citizens can purchase weapons of mass destruction at the local sporting goods store? Of course not. Football is perfect for such a culture. Horse racing's popularity is waning partly, if not largely, because the sport is among the few that aren't intentionally violent. 

But football was suckled on violence. In 1905, at least 24 people died playing football in this country, according to Roland Lazenby of Virginia Tech. The sport was almost banned because of the spread of its deathly contagion. But not much has changed: Overtime games can end in "sudden death." Every year high school kids are paralyzed, maimed and sometimes killed in football accidents. Is that why, as Trey Wingo of ESPN said, football isn't America's favorite pastime so much as its favorite passion?

Football, make no mistake, is an allegory for war and conflict. Just look at the language of the game: The quarterback is the "general" on the field; he throws "bombs" and works behind linemen who labor inconspicuously in the "trenches," and he tries to avoid the "blitz" of a linebacker. Don't fool yourself about what you're watching: Football isn't just sport; it's a metaphorical World War III.

But that's good. The violent impulse, the destructive desire, the confrontational urge, the conquering ambition -- aren't they present and latent deep within all of us? If so, and if they can be satisfied, or exorcised, or mollified by an allegorical war, isn't that preferred to an actual war, and doesn't that make football a good thing? Shouldn't we hope that all the world leaders watched the Super Bowl?

"There's no such thing as life without bloodshed," the great Cormac McCarthy once said in an interview. "I think the notion that the species can be improved in some way, that everyone could live in harmony, is a really dangerous idea."

And so we go to football games.

Even on a superficial level, the Super Bowl isn't about football or sport, not as viewed from this corner of North Texas during the previous eight or nine days. Super Bowl heroes of the past, as well as movie stars, all showed up just for the sake of being seen and interviewed. And just when you think few things can be more ridiculous than Adam Sandler and Jennifer Aniston talking football, unless it's Snoop Dogg talking football with a character known as The Packer Pope, you have to remember that none of it matters because this week wasn't really about football anyway. It was about metaphor on one level, but even more it was about excess, and more excess and even more excess; it was about everything super -- superstars, superbucks, superegos, supermachismo, supermodels, superexpenses, superseding, superphenomena, superetcetera.

The football stories were all dull and boring and, in the end, trite: Big Ben's redemption, Aaron Rodger's emergence from the long Favre shadow, the Cowboys' traditional rivals playing in Cowboys Stadium. Those storylines were threadbare when the Super week began, and they completely dissolved beneath the media tread long before Green Bay and Pittsburgh ever took the field for Super Bowl XLV. In terms of football, the week produced a reasonably good game, but otherwise nothing new or original or even interesting.

The week, however, produced some blockbuster parties, if I can judge from various accounts. Maxam, Playboy and ESPN all had boisterous parties; celebrites had their private parties; sponsors brandished their prosperity with their parties; parties had subparties. In a week of parties and conspicuous plenitude, the people complaining about the weather really complained about their inability to get from one party to the next.

Nobody ever suggested the weather might diminish the credibility of the football game. Nobody worried that the weather might affect the outcome. The actual game wasn't very important, or rather it wasn't nearly as important as everything else. And so, in the end, the game became a symbol for everything else.

More than 100 million people watched the Super Bowl on television. More than 100,000 attended the game at Cowboys Stadium. And I don't know how many people, but I would guess many thousands, came to North Texas just to be close to the happening. I met several people over the last week who came here with no tickets and didn't intend to try to buy any simply because the costs were prohibitive. They came for the parties, for the ESPN shows, for the moment.  They came here so that they might be near something important.  And without even thinking of it, they came here so they could move close to the cultural epicenter, close to an event that, more than any other, represents America.

In that regard, the Kentucky Derby, which symbolically reflects the country's pastoral heritage, may be closer to the Super Bowl than any other single sporting event. But the Breeders' Cup, which is often described as the Super Bowl of horse racing, isn't much like the Super Bowl at all. Not really. Yes, the Breeders' Cup has its parties and celebrities. But in the end, the Breeders' Cup is about sports, about racing and competition and championships. Quite simply, the Breeders' Cup represents a purity of competition that the Super Bowl never has achieved and never will.  

 

Wilbon burgers

I just heard Michael Wilbon on ESPN's "Pardon the Interruption" refer to "Zenyatta burgers."

I was working, not watching, and the show provided background noise. But the reference to "Zenyatta burgers" kicked me in the head. I don't know the context for the comment. Frankly, though, no context would justify such crudeness.

I understand Wilbon did the same thing five days ago or so. I read about it at the outstanding "Zipse At the Track" blog, which reported with justified anger that Wilbon said, "I'd be happier if we had some Zenyatta burgers. It's about time for that, right?"

My first thought was that Wilbon's comment had to be a terrible and unfortunate blunder, a turd-in-the-punch-bowl attempt at humor.  And it was surprising. I don't know Wilbon, but I've always respected his writing. I regarded him as intelligent and thoughtful, even sensitive. And so surely that comment was an awkward stumble, I thought, and nothing more. We've all stumbled.

The easiest way -- which is to say, the most certain way -- for anybody in the media to attract attention these days is, frankly, to be crude and stupid. It's like the comedian's resorting to foul language. He's not funny, but people laugh to relieve the tension rising from the relentless use of offensive language. Similarly, a columnist or a radio-show host may not be able to write or speak articulately or knowledgeably, but if he's crude and stupid, qualities that often travel in the company of a self-absorbed ego, people will read or listen simply for the joy of feeling their ire rise. If these bloviators replace journalists and insightful commentators, well, then journalism is dead.

But they won't, I thought, because there will always be people such as Michael Wilbon out there who are both popular and good.

At least that's what I thought until I heard Wilbon refer to "Zenyatta burgers" a moment ago. He must realize that the phrase, which is tantamount to wishing the great Horse of the Year dead, offends everybody who has any relationship with horses or racing. In fact, it offends anybody who has any respect for life. And to use the offensive phrase a second time could not have been a stumble. No, it had to be a premeditated grasp for the crude and the stupid, an effort calculated to attract attention by giving offense. For many in the media, crude and stupid come naturally, but Wilbon had to reach. He had to stretch to get there, which somehow makes it even worse, for he went out of his way to offend.

The quality of sports commentary and journalism has been declining for years, declining to a frightening and disturbing level. And it took another step downward today. 

Michael Wilbon, you're much better than that. Or at least I thought you were.