Horse racing

Triple Crown noisemakers: the top 100

As I've explained before, this list of Triple Crown noismakers is based more on potential than accomplishment. I obviously try to focus on horses who are likely to get to the Kentucky Derby, but include some, sprinters and turf types mainly, who may be unlikely to arrive at the destination but who nevertheless could influence the journey or have some impact in later races. I start looking for promising youngsters in August and have a list of more than 200 by now. Some horses in that group aren't included here because they didn't develop, others because they were sidelined by injury, a few because they're being aimed at different objectives and a few simply because I've lost track of them.

It has become interesting, even amusing, to see the pullulating lists of Derby horses. Everybody, it seems, has a list of candidates these days, and so I considered not publishing mine this year. Why bother? Well, I went back to last year's list to see how I explained it: It’s not done for bragging rights – I loathe braggarts -- and, of course, this list of 100 means nothing, like all such lists, no matter the imprimatur or the ego involved, when set beside the horses’ performances on the track, where they will ultimately and inevitably decide their true hierarchy. Still, making such a list remains an entertaining and useful endeavor, if only for self-edification -- and, of course, for investments.

Last year, Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver was No. 5, Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky No. 1 and Belmont winner Drosselmeyer No. 24 in this early evaluation of potential Triple Crown noisemakers. Since 1987, all but four Kentucky Derby winners have been in the early top 20.

And so here are the 100 noisemakers for 2011:

Rank. Horse, starts-wins-2nds-3rds, earnings, sire, trainer: comment.
1. Uncle Mo, 3-3-0-0, $1,296,00, Indian Charlie, Todd Pletcher: The most talented 2-year-old in many years, he could, if he develops, become a threat to sweep the famed Triple Crown series.

2. To Honor And Serve, 4-3-1-0, $264,640, Bernardini, Bill Mott: The Remsen winner also looks special and is training in Florida for a possible return in the Fountain of Youth.

3. Mucho Macho Man, 5-1-3-1, $110,643, Macho Uno, Katherine Ritvo: This huge colt, who kept trying when second in the Remsen, will make his seasonal debut in the Holy Bull and has room to improve.
 
4. Elite Alex, 2-1-1-0, $30,300, Afleet Alex, Tim Ritchey: After a stumbling start to his campaign, he could return Feb. 21 in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

5. Tapizar, 5-2-0-1, $105,632, Tapit, Steve Asmussen: The improving colt easily won the recent Sham Stakes at Santa Anita despite losing his focus momentarily. He's possible for the Bob Lewis on Feb. 12. 

6. Soldat, 6-2-4-0, $314,300, War Front, Kiaran McLaughlin: He showed his talent while romping in the slop at Gulfstream Park -- or was that his fondness for a wet track? He's aimed at the Fountain of Youth.

7. Brethren, 2-2-0-0, $67,368, Distorted Humor, Todd  Pletcher: Super Saver’s little brother looked very good in his Churdchill win and could return Feb. 12 at Tampa Bay in the Sam Davis.

8. Boys At Tosconova, 4-2-2-0, $562,060, Officer, Richard Dutrow: Although in Fla., the Hopeful winner will skip the Holy Bull, despite being aimed at it earlier; distance could be a question.

9. Jaycito, 4-1-2-0, $210,000, Victory Gallop, Bob Baffert: He went sightseeing in the Breeders’ Cup, but he has considerable talent and he has the respect of his trainer.

10. Monzon, 6-3-0-1, $90,144, Thunder Gulch, Ignacio Correas: Unbeaten on dirt, the Count Fleet winner appears to be improving and could show up at Tampa Bay for the Sam Davis.

11. Sovereign Default, 2-1-1-0, $43,300, Northern Afleet, Richard Violette: He looked brilliant until injured last year and made a useful return Saturday at Gulfstream; he should move forward. 

12. Awesome Patriot, 4-2-0-1, $69,580, Awesome Again, Bob Baffert: Improving, he won stretching out on dirt; he's a possibility for Oaklawn Park, where Baffert said he'll have somebody for the Southwest.

13. Rocking Out, 1-1-0-0, $33,000, Include, Richard Dutrow: He flashed knockout potential in his November debut, where he defeated Crossbow, and is training in Florida for his return.
 
14. Comma To The Top, 10-6-1-0, $551,600, Bwana Charlie, Peter Miller: He looked sensational as a 2-year-old while winning three stakes, but how far will his pedigree take him?

15. The Factor, 2-1-0-0, $34,680, War Front, Bob Baffert: Although brilliant in his win, he must, as his trainer said, slow down if he's going to extend his speed; he could return in the San Vicente.

16. Dialed In, 1-1-0-0, $28,800, Mineshaft, Nick Zito: He overcame much to win his debut, and his trainer knows how to get one to peak at the right moment; but he'll have to step up in the Holy Bull.

17. Rogue Romance, 4-2-0-1, $291,150, Smarty Jones, Kenny McPeek: Had some trouble when third in the Breeders’ Cup. He's training in Florida but could return at Fair Grounds.

18. Indian Winter, 3-2-0-1, $100,860, Indian Charlie, Jerry Hollendorfer: He rallied to win the San Pedro in his first start on dirt despite lugging in and changing strides late. Has room to improve.

19. Washington’s Rules, 2-1-1-0, $33,100, Roman Ruler, Kenny McPeek: He finished powerfully for a recent win at Gulfstream to suggest he could have a big future as the distances stretch out.

20. Gourmet Dinner, 6-4-1-0, $869,960, Trippi, Steven Standridge: The winner of the Delta Jackpot has a pedigree that raises questions, but he's obviously accomplished. He'll return in the Holy Bull.

The field for the Kentucky Derby will be limited to 20 based on earnings in graded stakes. And so here, from this perspective, are the also-eligibles:

Rank. Horse, sire, trainer, comment:

21. Runflatout, Flatter, John Sadler: He won his debut in 1:07.70 Saturday at Santa Anita to announce his arrival on the scene. Yes, he has some catching-up to do, but he appears to have abundant talent.

22. J P's Gusto, Successful Appeal, David Hofmans: A multiple stakes winner who ran second in the CashCall Futurity, he's training at Santa Anita for his return and is obviously very capable.

23. Stay Thirsty, Bernardini, Todd Pletcher: The Hopeful runner-up ran fifth in the Breeders' Cup and has chased some of the top colts. He'll need to step up obviously, but he looks as if he has room to improve. He could return, his trainer said, in the Gotham.

24. Tiz Blessed, Tiznow, Chad Brown: He gave his best performance while winning the Display on Woodbine's synthetic surface, but he also won at Saratoga and he had trouble in his only loss. He's training in Florida.

25. Travelin Man, Trippi, Todd Pletcher: He sparkled while winning his debut by more than seven lengths in a rapid 1:09 at Gulfstream. He'll probably come back in next month's Hutcheson, his trainer said. If he's successful there, he might stretch out, but he looks like he could be a top sprinter.

26. Sway Away, Afleet Alex, Jeff Bonde: A very big colt who ran second in the Best Pal, he has the talent to emerge as the top 3YO in Northern California, where he has been training for his return.

27. Casper's Touch, Touch Gold, Kenny McPeek: He returned from England to win at Churchill and appears to be training very sharply in Florida. He could certainly make some noise along the way.

28. Da Ruler, Roman Ruler, Bob Baffert: He won a fast maiden race at Santa Anita and could soon be ready to step into stakes company.

29. Machen, Distorted Humor, Neil Howard: A fast debut winner, he has the look of a sprinter but will try to stretch out Sunday at Fair Grounds against a very modest group of rivals.

30. Crossbow, Bernardini, Kiaran McLaughlin: A speedy colt, he defeated Sovereign Default at Gulfstream but didn't look like he wants to go much farther.

31. Premier Pegasus, Fusaichi Pegasus, Myung Kwon Cho: A two-time stakes winner last year, he worked a half-mile Friday (47.20) at Santa Anita, his first move of the season.

32. Leave Of Absence, Harlan's Holiday, R.A. Violette: He flashed some potential last year, but he couldn't get up in time in a slow Spectacular Bid Stakes; he'll return in the Holy Bull. 

33. Alternation, Distorted Humor, Donnie Von Hemel: The handsome colt showed considerable determination to beat Elite Alex at Oaklawn Park. The Southwest is possible.

34. Astrology, A.P. Indy, Steve Asmussen: The winner of the Iroquois at Churchill last year, the handsome colt ran second in a slow Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes but has considerable potential. He's in California.

35. Rescind The Trade, Put It Back, Richard Violette: Unbeaten in two starts, the handsome chestnut apparently didn't like the Florida sunshine and has gone back to New York, where he could make some noise in the upcoming Whirlaway or Gotham.

36. Sweet Ducky, Pulpit, Kelly Breen: A stakes winner at Monmouth, he disappointed in the Jackpot but appears to be training sharply for his return in the Holy Bull.

37. Cool Blue Red Hot, Harlan's Holiday, A J Penna: Compromised by a slow pace, he chased Soldat home in the slop at Gulfstream.

38. Albergatti, Unbridled's Song, Steve Asmussen: The flashy gray colt finished second to Da Ruler in his debut at Santa Anita despite encountering a little trouble.

39. Heron Lake, Bernardini, Nick Zito: He defeated a solid field in his debut at Gulfstream Park, and although he's behind many of these in terms of development, he obviously has a bright future.

40. J J's Lucky Train, Silver Train, William Anderson: He finished his juvenile campaign with consecutive victories and then ran second in the Count Fleet to suggest this train has some steam.

41. Clubhouse Ride, Candy Ride, Craig Lewis: The runner-up in the Sham, he already has raced 11 times in his career; he's realiably capable and usually picks up a paycheck. 

42. Manicero, Mass Media, Leo Azpurua Jr.: The Tampa flash has won four consecutive races, including three stakes, and his pedigree suggests he can stretch out.

43. Sinai, Rockport Harbor, Bob Baffert: The handsome colt got stopped in the San Pedro but came on again to finish third, and then he galloped out strongly.

44. Decisive Moment, With Distinction, Juan Arias: He ran second to Gourmet Dinner in the Jackpot and then won the Jean Lafitte in a way to suggest he's capable of trying tougher company.

45. Ghost Is Clear, Ghostzapper, Mike Maker: After three losses, he woke up with a fast and decisive victory at Fair Grounds, suggesting he has stakes-level talent.

46. Santiva, Giant's Causeway, Eddie Kenneally: Although never worse than third, he scored his only victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He's training in Florida.

47. Positive Response, Pomeroy, William Morey: The erstwhile claimer has won three consecutive races, including two stakes, at Golden Gate.

48. Thirtyfirststreet, Good Journey, Doug O'Neill: He rallied to win a Cal-bred stakes on opening day at Santa Anita and may be good enough to move into open company.

49. Hammersmith, Johannesburg, Todd Pletcher: He couldn't get by Heron Lake, but he's another who possesses considerable potential.

50. Break Up The Game, Bernardini, Shug McGaughey: He has closed strongly in his two sprints and looks as if he's going to get much better when he races around two turns.

51. Black N Beauty, Devil His Due, Dale Romans: The capable little colt won his first start of the season at Gulfstream in a good field and will make his stakes debut in the Holy Bull.

52. Fort Hughes, Henny Hughes, Kiaran McLaughlin: He won the Jimmy Winkfield in a very fast clocking. Yes, he looks like a sprinter, but a very good one.

53. Major Gain, More Than Ready, Wayne Catalano: The Arlington-Washington Futurity winner ran poorly in his only dirt outing, but he'll try again in the Holy Bull.

54. Archarcharch, Arch, W.H. Fires: After winning the Sugar Bowl Stakes, he gave a clunker of a  performance in the Smarty Jones, but he's better than that.

55. Toby's Corner, Graham Motion, Bellamy Road: He has been impressive while winning consecutive races at Laurel and should be ready to step up to stakes company.

56. Rustler Hustler, Ecton Park, Richard Dutrow: A stakes winner on the turf at Belmont, he has yet to try the dirt. He has been training in Florida.

57. Caleb's Posse, Posse, Donnie Von Hemel: The winner of the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn and the Clever Trevor at Remington, he looks like a useful sort but could have distance limitations.

58. Yankee Passion, Yankee Gentleman, Larry Jones: He missed the break, recovered, split horses and then drew clear for a recent win at Oaklawn Park. Out of a Pleasant Colony dam, he looks as if he could continue to improve with distance.

59. Beamer, Vindication, Carl Nafzger: He rallied to finish third behind Soldat and appears to be improving as the distances stretch out.

60. Splash Point, Street Cry, Mahmoud Al Zarooni: He finished second in the UAE 2000 Guineas Trial over Meydan's synthetic surface and could try the Dubai road to Kentucky.

61. Pleasant Run, Pleasant Tap, Kenny McPeek: Still a maiden, he rallied with determination after stumbling badly at the start of his most recent outing. 

62. Wilkinson, Lemon Drop Kid, Neil Howard: He improved to win the LeComte Stakes at Fair Grounds but will find much tougher company in the Risen Star.

63. Close Ally, Giant's Causeway, Neil Howard: He closed with a rush to win his debut sprinting. It was a slow race, but he could improve dramatically around two turns.

64. Determinato, Closing Argument, Larry Pilotti: Stalked a fast pace and then won the Spectacular Bid Stakes, but in a rather slow clocking.

65. Doubledown On Ten, Rock Hard Ten, John Sadler: He also chased Da Ruler in that fast maiden race at Santa Anita and could improve with distance.

66. Dance City, City Zip, Todd Pletcher: He won going nine furlongs at Gulfstream, but seemed weary late and could be better on turf.

67. Free Entry, Tale of The Cat, Chad Brown: He rallied wide for a recent victory at Gulfstream and has the pedigree to suggest he could move forward.

68. Shadow Warrior, A.P. Indy, Rusty Arnold: He moved four-wide and then faltered in his first start of the year, but he has license to improve significantly around two turns.

69. Pants On Fire, Jump Start, Kelly Breen: Never worse than fourth in his career, he has been close in stakes company but will need to step forward soon if he's going to stay on the road.

70. Justin Phillip, First Samurai, Steve Asmussen: He turned in a dismal effort as the favorite in the LeComte Stakes, but he had a rough trip and could make amends.

71. Dreaminofthewin, Successful Appeal, C.R. Trout: The Smarty Jones runner-up never has been worse than second and appears to be improving as the distances stretch out.

72. Don Dulce, Maria's Mon, Malcolm Pierce: He has no speed, but he can finish with energy; he'll take on Machen at Fair Grounds.

73. Flashpoint, Pomeroy, Richard Dutrow: He won his debut by more than six lengths in a fast clocking, and he could make some noise in the shorter preps leading to Kentucky.

74. Adulare, Flatter, Rusty Arnold: He had a fairly fast win around two turns at Calder to indicate he's improving.

75. City Cool, City Zip, Steve Asmussen: Probably a sprinter, he ran second in the San Pedro and never has given a poor performance.

76. Bandbox, Tapit, Rodney Jenkins: He clipped heels in the Remsen, his only loss. He's training at Laurel for his return to competition.

77. Akkadian, Tiznow, Julio Canani: A $270,000 purchase, he made his debut on the turf, closing with a a rush to be second in a fast time.

78. Arch Traveler, Sky Mesa, Jimmy Jerkens: He couldn't stay with Heron Lake late and finsihed third as the 4-5 favorite, but he has dangerous speed and should be ready to step forward.

79. Printing Press, Tapit, Terri Pompay: He finished second in his seasonal debut and appears to be training sharply for the Holy Bull.

80. Wine Police, Speightstown, Steve Asmussen: Third in the Hopeful, he'll probably be a sprinter; but he's talented and could make some noise. He's training in New Orleans for his return.

81. Crimson China, Giant's Causeway, Brian Meehan: He won on a synthetic surface in England and is now training in Florida.

82. Depeche Chat, Wildcat Heir, Rusty Arnold: He rallied to finish third in a stakes at Tampa and has room to improve.

83. Island School, A.P. Indy, Shug McGaughey: He rallied in the slop to win at Gulfstream and appears to be figuring things out.

84. Janood, Medicean, Saeed bin Suroor: He closed strongly over the Meydan surface and could take the Dubai road to Kentucky.

85. Moonhanger, Malibu Moon, Bruce Alexander: He was a romping winner by 11 lengths over a weak group at Tampa, but his pedigree suggests he could continue to improve.

86. Buffum, Bernardini, Tom Albertrani: A flashy winner at Belmont last year, he had trouble in the Remsen and has been sent to Dubai.

87. Private Prize, Pure Prize, Kenny McPeek: The runner-up in the Tropical Park Derby may be a turf horse, but he defeated Wilkinson on the main track at Churchill.

88. Ribo Bobo, Louis Quatorze, Manuel Azpurura: Ran second to Astrology in the Iroquois but will have to improve if he's to be a factor in the Holy Bull.

89. Prime Cut, Bernstein, Neil Howard: He won sprinting in New Orleans and looks as if he can improve as he tries longer distances.

90. Simbamangu, Tale Of The Cat, Barclay Tagg: After a slow start, he rallied to be third in his debut at Gulfstream and appears to have considerable talent.

91. Royal Currier, Red Bullet, Patricia Farro: A stakes winner in Philadelphia, he chased Fort Hughes home in the Winkfield at Aqueduct.

92. Shackleford, Forestry, Dale Romans: An impressive winner at Churchill in November, he's in Florida preparing for his return.

93. Lauburu, Unbridled's Song, Todd Pletcher: Ashado's brother showed nothing in his last, but that was in the slop and he deserves another chance.

94. Lumberyard Jack, Bellamy Road, Mike Stidham: He drew clear for a recent victory at Fair Grounds that was more professional than flashy.

95. Tech Fall, Birdstone, Tony Dutrow: He rallied to be second behind J J's Lucky Train in Philadelphia, but hasn't had a published work yet this year.

96. Sherriff Cogburn, Vindication, Don Von Hemel: He won his two races last year by more than 16 collective lengths; he probably won't be ready to return to competition until April, but he's one to keep an eye on.

97. Wilcox Inn, Harlan's Holiday, Mike Stidham: Third on the turf in the Breeders' Cup, he'll probably stay on the grass. He has yet to have published work this year.

98. Aces N Kings, Jet Phone, Caroline Dodwell: He has won stakes on dirt and turf; the Texas-bred just knows how to win.

99. Orion Xpress, Bertrando, Henry Dominguez: He looked sharp winning his debut at Sunland -- yes, Sunland, which, don't forget, has produced a Derby winner.

100. Opening Move, Bernardini, Kiaran McLaughlin: He was favored against Leave Of Absence in November, but disappointed. Obviously talented and beautifully bred, he's training in Florida.

 

Elite Alex probably goes Southwest

Elite Alex, strangley enough, validated his Triple Crown potential when he finished second on opening day at Oaklawn Park. If there had been any doubts -- oh, they probably existed in some corners, like dustballs -- about his ability to run around two turns or about his talent or his determination, he dispelled them all with his runner-up performance. But his effort still left a question: He stumbled so badly at the start and ran so hard, but where did it all leave him?

Well, he'll have a workout this weekend, said his trainer, Tim Ritchey, and if all goes well, Elite Alex will make his next start Feb. 21 in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn.

Elite Alex came out of his seasonal debut, Ritchey said, "with some cuts and scrapes." But he came out of it well, or at least as well as could be expected.

This was only the second start of his career, and his first since he won his debut last summer. Elite Alex was fresh and sharp, and so he figured to be right there with the early leaders. But he stumbled badly coming out of the gate and immediately found himself 10 lengths back. He showed, however, a willingness to settle and rate. He was tractable. He advanced down the backstretch, and then he rallied five-wide in the second turn.

In the end, he lost by a head to Alternation, a nice Distorted Humor colt who will also run in the Southwest. But Elite Alex's effort was very impressive. After losing several lengths at the break and while rallying five-wide, he ran the final quarter-mile in 25 seconds. That won't turn any heads, but consider it in context. After several days of bad weather -- the previous day's races had been cancelled -- the Oaklawn track was a dull and tiring mess. In the two other one-mile races that day, the winners ran their final quarter-mile in 27.12 (after stalking) and 26.33 (rallying from next-to-last).

"We certainly would have liked to win, but we found out a lot about him," Ritchey said about Elite Alex. "A lot of good came out of the race. I think we can move forward. . . . Everything's looking better each day."

With Bob Baffert saying he'll send a horse, with Alternation in and Elite Alex moving in that direction, the Southwest could be one of those intriguing early stops on the road to the Triple Crown.

 

Baffert to Oaklawn

Bob Baffert said he'll be at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 21 for the Southwest Stakes -- or at least he'll be represented by a horse in the Southwest. As for who that horse will be -- well, that decision will wait on Baffert's instincts, which are uncanny, and the horses, of course. 

The road to Triple Crown success, you've probably noticed, frequently has gone through Arkansas lately.  The series of stakes at Oaklawn Park are perfect preparation, it would seem, for the Triple Crown: well spaced, positioned just right for a 3-year-old's development and each a little longer and more demanding than the last. Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, Super Saver, Lookin At Lucky -- they all ran at Oaklawn Park, and they accounted for eight of the last 21 Triple Crown races.

And Baffert -- whose IQ, he once pointed out, increases dramatically as soon as he goes through the stable gate -- is well aware of the efficacy of the Oaklawn stakes. And so earlier today, after a discussion of Euroears, the Hall of Fame trainer said he'll send a horse to the Southwest. For that sojourn, he has many candidates.

Jaycito, the Norfolk winner, would be among them, along with Awesome Patriot, a stylish allowance winner whose pedigree insists he's going to continue to improve with more distance. The one-mile of the Soutwest might even be the ideal stage for The Factor to stretch out -- "I have to get him to slow down," Baffert said. The Factor, of course, dazzled in his swift maiden victory on opening day at Santa Anita. And there are other possibilities, such as Sinai and Wegner.

Baffert's stable is deep with talent, and to keep his 3-year-olds apart, he'll have to hit the road. The Oaklawn road has been very rewarding.

 

The return of Your Ol' Ears

"He looks great," Bob Baffert said about Euroears, who returns from a lengthy layoff in Saturday's $150,000 Palos Verdes at Santa Anita.

Should I ask, I wondered, how his ears are? No, I decided. The Hall of Fame trainer might think I had lost more than a recent wager.

But it was just such a question that got the powerful chestnut his odd name. When he was an unnamed 2-year-old, he had an ear infection. One morning, he stuck his head out of his stall just as his owner, Jim Helzer, arrived at the barn. And Helzer, seeing the horse, asked, rehetorically of course, "How's your ol' ears?"

The groom, whose English was limited, thought the question was being put to him, not the horse. He thought he was being asked how the young colt was doing. He thought, in other words, that the horse was named Your Ol' Ears, or, as the groom expressed it, "Euroears is fine." And so, as Helzer tells the story, the big chestnut became known as Euroears.

The first time I saw him -- and he can light up a racetrack in the morning -- Euroears worked a half-mile at Lone Star Park in 47.60 and galloped out five-eighths in a minute without being asked for anything but loving every moment on the track. It was a jaw-dropper. A few weeks later, he won his debut by more than nine lengths.

Euroears, in fact, won his first six starts and looked like he was going to join the ranks of the nation's  top sprinters. He probably gave his best performance in March of 2008, when he won the Duncan F. Kenner Stakes in New Orleans. That was a great day of racing at Fair Grounds: Proud Spell won the Oaks, Circular Quay the New Orleans Handicap and Pyro the Louisiana Derby. But Euroears stole the show. He stalked a lively pace, dragged jockey Ramsey Zimmerman to the lead and then, with a final quarter-mile in 23.31, drew clear easily to defeat Semaphore Man, Noonmark, King of The Roxy and Les Grands Trois while completing the three-quarters of a mile in 1:09.27 over a surface that wasn't especially fast.

Euroears injured himself shortly after that. And injuries have compromised him for much of his career. It's unfortunate he's not a graded stakes winner; but that says more about the grading of stakes than it does Euroears, who has won half of his 16 races and earned $401,562. Last year, he stretched out in the Texas Mile and led every step but the last one, losing a photo to Mythical Power. Then Euroears ran third in the Lone Star Park Handicap. And now, having joined Baffert in California, the 7-year-old is poised for a return in the Palos Verdes.

"It's a tough race," Baffert said, alluding to the presence of Smiling Tiger, Gato Go Win, Hunch, Don Tito, Captain Cherokee and the trainer's other entrant, Ventana. "But Euroears is training well, and I think he'll run big. He couldn't be doing any better. He's a great looking horse."

Yes, Your Ol' Ears always has been a great looking horse.   

 

Oaklawn cancels, opens Saturday

Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., has cancelled Friday's racing; the track has moved back its opening to Saturday, when the featured race will be the $50,000 Dixie Belle Stakes.

A winter storm left six inches of snow in its wake and forced Oaklawn to close its track to training. But temperatures are expected to rise over the next few days, and opening weekend will continue through Monday. The $75,000 Fifth Season Stakes, originally scheduled for Friday, will be run Sunday, with the $100,000 Smarty Jones on Monday.

Oaklawn assistant general manager David Longinotti said the track cancelled Friday's races out of a concern for the safety of the competitors and the fans, who might have to travel through difficult conditions to get to Hot Springs.

 

Winter uncertainties

The winter storm blowing through the South has left many uncertainties in its wake. Snow fell Sunday on Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., and the track was closed to training this morning, according to trainer Tim Ritchey.

Friday is to be the first day in Oaklawn's 56-day season. Cold and freezing temperatures are expected to linger in Hot Springs, where there's a chance this week for more precipitation. 

As a result of the weather, Ritchey said he'll have to wait a few days to determine where exactly Elite Alex will make his 3-year-old debut. The colt is expected to run early in the Oaklawn season, with one possibility being Monday's Smarty Jones Stakes, where he would take on Sugar Bowl Stakes winner Archarcharch. Unraced since his winning debut last summer, Elite Alex has the potential, Ritchey said, "to be a very good horse."

Elite Alex worked seven furlongs Saturday at Oaklawn in 1:29.60. Based on the times that morning, the track appears to have been rather dull and slow. Elite Alex worked in company with an older stakes winner, Alex's Vision, who completed six furlongs in 1:16.80. Ritchey said the younger colt drew away inside the furlong marker and continued to work beyond the wire.   

It's that time of year: a horse to watch

It's never too early for spring fever, not for a horseman who has a talented youngster in the barn or for aficianados and devotees of the sport. Even with 120 days between this moment and the playing of "My Old Kentucky Home," the temperature can begin to rise.

Travelin Man sent the temperature up a notch with his impressive victory Thursday at Gulfstream, where Black N Beauty beat a solid field today. Leave of Absence, Gangsterontherun, Cane Garden Bay and Grande Shores meet in Saturday's Spectacular Bid Stakes. Some promising youngsters could step up Saturday in maiden races at both Santa Anita Gulfstream. Yes, these are exciting months for racing, which remarkably rejuvenates itself each year with emerging talents.

But this year could be especially exciting simply because the top two juveniles of 2010, Uncle Mo and To Honor And Serve, have suggested they might possess extraordinary gifts. If they don't improve a step as 3-year-olds, they've already shown sufficient talent to indicate they're going to be formidable stakes horses. And if they do improve and develop -- well, that's what it's all about this time of year, development. 

I start looking for promising youngsters in August, I have a list of hundreds by now, and it's going to grow before it begins to shrink. With the trend toward giving young horses fewer races -- the last four Kentucky Derby winners had only two preps in the months leading up to their roseate victories -- finding the potential Triple Crown players has become increasingly difficult, with more emphasis than ever on potential.

While most of the top youngsters are stabled in Florida, with several in California, it's easy to overlook promising horses that could emerge at Fair Grounds in New Orleans or at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. One such horse could run during opening week at Oaklawn, where racing begins next Friday: Elite Alex.

He hasn't raced since winning his debut in July at Delaware Park. But he has the pedigree, the connections and the talent to become a prominent player.

"I think he has the potential to be a very good horse," said his trainer, Tim Ritchey. "He's a very big horse, but he's very agile and athletic."

Ritchey, of course, trained Afleet Alex, the sire of Elite Alex, and so he knows something about taking the Arkansas road to Kentucky. Afleet Alex romped in the 2005 Arkansas Derby before winning two-thirds of the Triple Crown. And if not for a bad trip in Kentucky, where he was beaten by a length, Alfeet Alex very well could have swept the series. Afleet Alex lost only four races in his career. After one of those, the Rebel, he was found to have, as I recall, a respiratory infection. Bad racing luck beat him in the other three.

On Dec 19 at Oaklawn, Elite Alex worked a bullet five furlongs out of the gate in 1:00.80. By any measure, it would appear to be a good work. But here's why it jumped off the worktab. That same morning, Alex's Vision, an older horse who's a stakes winner and who's also trained by Ritchey, also worked five furlongs out of the gate. He also stopped the official watch at 1:00.80.

Seeing that, I telephoned Ritchey to confirm what seemed obvious. They worked together.

Ritchey explained that the two horses are workmates. And Elite Alex sometimes outworks his older companion. For a young horse who has raced only once to work on even terms with a capable older horse is impressive. Outworking the older horse -- and he galloped out more strongly on Dec. 19, Ritchey said -- suggests Elite Alex could be special.

Elite Alex is scheduled to work again Saturday. And if all goes well there, he soon could make his 3-year-old debut at Oaklawn.

 

 

An Eclipse ballot

The instructions don't mention criteria. Those are personal. And over the years, guided by history, I have developed my own Eclipse criteria. Some voters may disagree with them, but they're mine, they're not whimsical, and I remain loyal to them, even at the risk of inviting venomous criticism.

The foremost criterion I employ is this: I emphasize accomplishment on the racetrack, even over talent. Eskendereya was the most talented 3-year-old to race in North America in 2010 -- about that, I don't think there's much doubt -- but Lookin At Lucky was most accomplished, winning four stakes, including the Preakness and the Haskell. Some voters, I suspect, handicap a division as if it's a race, which strikes me as a rather tenuous approach since so many important variables remain unknown (e.g. distance and surface), and then they vote for the best horse, as if that's easy to determine.

While I disagree with that approach, I'm not going to argue with it as long as it's applied consistently and reasonably. Majesticperfection was probably the most talented sprinter in 2010; but Big Drama was most accomplished, winning three stakes, including the Smile and the Breeders' Cup Sprint. I wouldn't disagree with votes for Eskendereya and Majesticperfection if they're made with the insistence that each horse was best within his division. But I would have to wonder about the ballot that includes a vote for one and not the other. A ballot that employs one set of criteria for one division and another set for another division, or for another year, isn't a vote so much as a whim.

That's why I have to remain loyal to the historical criteria I've followed for years, and it's why I voted for Lookin At Lucky and Big Drama. Yes, it's also why, as I've explained before, I've voted for Blame as Horse of the Year. Quite simply, he accomplished more on the racetrack than any other North American horse that raced in 2010.

And please don't argue that another horse won five Grade I stakes. That's a desperate argument, and it exposes the ignorance of anybody who uses it. Grading stakes accurately and appropriately is an impossible task when done, as it is formally, in advance, and so the grading of races in this country has been ludicrously flawed for years. (Ideally, as has been discussed many times, the committee should grade races after they've been run, not before.) Similarly, any argument based on the accumulation of Roman numerals is also flawed.

The Hopeful, American Oaks, Kentucky Derby, Clement Hirsch, Whitney and Prioress were all Grade I races last year, or so the American Graded Stakes Committee would ask you to believe. But any committe that suggests those races were equal in stature or importance or that the winning performances in those races were comparable, any committee that advances such absurd premises, deserves to be ignored. Frankly, I don't need a committee to tell me which races are important and significant, just as I don't need somebody's number to tell me when I've seen a superlative racehorse. And so I ignore the official grading of races and use instead my own grades for purposes of voting.

The Eclipse Awards honor North American horses and accomplishments, and so I won't vote for a Horse of the Year who has raced here only once or twice. I couldn't vote for Goldikova as Horse of the Year, for example, even if she had won the Mile by 10 lengths and even if Blame and Zenyatta had not been on the track. But I will sometimes vote for a divisional champion based on a single superlative performance, and I indeed voted for Goldikova as the champion female turf horse. And I will include for consideration the foreign accomplishments of horses based in North America.

I also try where possible to use my ballot to encourage the types of campaigns that are good for racing. That was easy this year. Blind Luck, I thought, had the most admirable campaign of 2010. She raced nine times, from February to November, at seven different racetracks, and she ran in the races that define her division -- the Kentucky Oaks, Alabama and Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic. She was clearly the champion 3-year-old filly.

Most of the Eclipse winners were rather obvious this year. Or, I should say, my votes were obvious, with no tough choices. Did Goldikova's brilliance trump Proviso's four major stakes victories? I think it did. Did Big Drama's body of work trump Majesticperfection's conspicuous talent? I think it did. But Majesticperfection could win as top Sprinter, and Zenyatta could very well be Horse of the Year. I wouldn't argue with either.  

In the 20 years or so that I've been voting for the Eclipse Awards, I can think of a few, but only a few, instances of horses or people winning who probably shouldn't have and a very few (Eddie Delahoussaye, most conspicuously) who should have won an Eclipse but never did. (By the way, for a number of reasons, I don't enter any of the media Eclipse Award categories.) The Eclipse Awards usually get it right.

And by saying that I'm not suggesting I'm the touchstone for determining rightness; I simply mean that the winners are worthy. Big Drama and Majesticperfection are both worthy. Blame and Zenyatta are both worthy. But if Smiling Tiger were named the champion sprinter, that would be a mistake. And if Goldikova were named Horse of the Year, that, too, would be a mistake; but that won't happen because the Eclipse Awards will be, as they have been over the years, faithful to deserving horses.

Still, I would support any effort -- I first suggested this many years ago, and I suspect it could happen in the near future -- to include the fans in the voting, but not as basketball and baseball allow fans to vote for all-star teams. NBA fans can vote over the Internet, and they can vote and vote and vote and vote again. The Eclipse Awards are more important than any spot on an all-star team. And so I would suggest that horse racing instead have an election day, perhaps the Saturday after Christmas, when everybody who attends the races or goes to an off-track site gets a ballot.

Anyway, here's my ballot.

Two-year-old male: 1, Uncle Mo; 2, To Honor And Serve; 3, Comma To The Top.

Two-year-old female: 1, Awesome Feather; 2, Turbulent Descent; 3, Kathmanblu.

Three-year-old male: 1, Lookin At Lucky; 2, Eskendereya; 3, Sidney's Candy.

Three-year-old female: 1, Blind Luck; 2, Evening Jewel; 3, Devil May Care.

Older male: 1, Blame; 2, Quality Road; 3, Richard's Kid.

Older female: 1, Zenyatta; 2, Unrivaled Belle; 3, Rachel Alexandra.

Sprinter: 1, Big Drama; 2, Majesticperfection; 3, Smiling Tiger.

Female Sprinter: 1, Dubai Majesty; 2, Switch; 3, Champagne d'Oro.

Turf male: 1, Gio Ponti; 2, Dangerous Midge; 3, Paddy O'Prado.

Turf female: 1, Goldikova; 2, Proviso; 3, Tuscan Evening.

Steeplechase: 1, Slip Away; 2, Percussionist; 3, Arcadius.

Horse of the Year: 1, Blame; 2, Zenyatta; 3, Lookin At Lucky.

Trainer: 1, Todd Pletcher; 2, Bob Baffert; 3, Steve Asmussen.

Jockey: 1, R.A. Dominguez; 2, Garrett Gomez; 3, Joel Rosasrio.

Owner: 1, WinStar Farm; 2, Wertheimer and Frere; 3, Repole Stable.

Breeder: Brereton Jones; 2, Adena Springs; 3, Gulf Coast Farms.

Apprentice Jockey: 1, Omar Moreno; 2, Angel Serpa; 3, Joshua Navarro.