Horse racing

Handicapping the Haskell

The winner of Sunday's $1 million Haskell could move to the head of the class, unless he's Lookin At Lucky, who's already there, of course. He's a terrific horse, and his trainer, Bob Baffert, says the Preakness winner has shown signs of greatness. He's the horse to beat in the Haskell.

The odd thing about Lookin At Lucky is that despite his accomplishments, his juvenile title and his hefty two-million-dollar bankroll, he doesn't win in spectacular fashion. He's more workmanlike than flashy. Only once has he won by more than a length; that was in last year's Norfolk, where he defeated Pulsion by nearly two. Lookin At Lucky simply does what's necessary.

Not to compare the two except in this one regard, but Alysheba was like that, too. He won only one stakes race by more than a length, the Strub. On the other hand, he won four stakes in a photo.

Lookin At Lucky has lost only three times. In each of those races he encountered considerable trouble, and he had to overcome trouble to win the Rebel, all of which has prompted Baffert to say the colt has been "jinxed" rather than lucky. In the Kentucky Derby, of course, he had the No. 1 post position and got roughed up in the frantic run to the first turn.

He has drawn No. 1 again, but in this smaller field the post position shouldn't be so problematic. He's 5-2 in the morning line and could go shorter, especially given Baffert's success in this race. He has won it three times.

And so Super Saver could be a more inviting play. How often do you get 3-1 on the Kentucky Derby winner? Many people, I think, underestimate Super Saver because of his poor effort in the Preakness, where he finished eighth, and they tend to downplay his Derby victory, where he had a perfect trip to win by more than two lengths. He may not be as good as the Derby suggests, but he's certainly much better than the Preakness indicates. He never had run on less than three-weeks rest, and the Preakness was his third start in five weeks, a demanding schedule, as it turned out, for a colt who's not espeically big or robust.

Several factors point to his running well in the Haskell. He apparently has been training very sharply. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, said Super Saver has been training better than he had prior to the Kentucky Derby. And the colt could enjoy an ideal stalking trip behind First Dude, who'll probably be the early leader, as he was in both the Preakness and Belmont. Speed and athleticism are his foremost virtues, and Monmouth tends to reward both.

Trappe Shot will no doubt attract plenty of attention, as he should. He has won four consecutive races by a total of more than 29 lengths. His trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, always has held this Tapit colt in high regard. This should be very challenging for him, however. Three weeks ago, he made his two-turn debut, winning the Long Branch Stakes as the 1-2 favorite. The pace in the Long Branch was rather pedestrian, and Trappe Shot was able to save ground. In the Haskell, he could be farther back early. If he's close to the faster pace, the question then becomes whether he can finish as strongly. Either way, he's going to have to do something he never has done, and at a distance he never has raced. He could indeed be that good, but is that possibility worth an investment at short odds?

Ice Box obviously didn't give a true performance when ninth in the Belmont. He has given his best efforts when able to rally into an overheated pace. The Derby pace, for example, was suicidal, and Ice Box overcame a nightmarish journey to finish second. The Florida Derby pace was extremely hot, and Ice Box rallied to win. Will the pace here be similarly hot? Probably not. Still, Ice Box can be counted on to come running strongly down the lane. Among the long shots, Our Dark Knight is most intriguing. Never worse than second, the improving colt has three of his last four, and he appears to like the Monmouth surface.

Selections: Super Saver, Lookin At Lucky, First Dude, Ice Box   

Handicapping the Jim Dandy

Its purse has a chorus line of zeroes and its field a pair of classic winners, and so Sunday's Haskell will grab most of the headllines and much of the ballyhoo this weekend -- but I'll get to the Haskell later. Today's $500,000 Jim Dandy at Saratoga has my attention. From a horseplayer's point of view, this is the more intriguing race, and it offers the possibility of a more rewarding return.

The Jim Dandy is full of mystery, uncertainty and unknowns; on that tripod you can balance a very large payoff. What, for example, is Steinbeck doing in here? Trained by Aidan O'Brien, this Irish colt is invading New York for, what, the Lasix? the dirt? Was he aiming for Cannery Row and lost his sense of direction? In his first two starts this year, Steinbeck chased Canford Cliffs, who, by the way, has won three consecutive Group I events and recently beat a formidable elder, Rip Van Winkle, in the Sussex Stakes. Canford Cliffs has become one of the best milers in all of Europe, which means he's one of the best milers in the world, and so don't underestimate this colt who finished five lengths behind him. But why's Steinbeck here? He improved when he avoided Canford Cliffs, and so now Steinbeck has taken avoidance to, as they love to say on vacuous talk radio, the next level: He crossed the Atlantic. Canford Cliffs won't find him here.

And what about these unbeaten colts? Was there no New York-bred race this weekend? Actually, Stormy's Majesty and Friend Or Foe are intriguing. Friend Or Foe hasn't raced beyond seven-eighths, and they've both been beating up state-breds, but they both look like runners, too. In fact, they all look like runners, all these Jim Dandy entrants.

That's why the trip is going to be so important. Miner's Reserve, an improving colt from the Nick Zito barn, will probably shoot to the early lead today. In Delaware, in his most recent outing, he led through fast fractions, 46.65 for the opening half-mile, with A Little Warm stalking closely. From there, they had a match race, with A Little Warm wearing down Miner's Reserve in the stretch and drawing clear to win by more than two lengths. It was a fast race, 1:43.60, with two outstanding performances; the third horse was more than 14 back. And the suggests that both horses could threaten today.

But that Delaware race might not have been quite as good as it first appears.That day, June 29, at Delaware Park, speedsters and stalkers won all but one of the races on the main track, regardless of distance, and that single victory by a closer went to the 5-2 favorite, who got up in deep stretch to defeat a 70-1 long shot who had led from the start. In other words, it would appear that the Delaware Park surface that day was especially kind to speedy types and that Miner's Reserve and A Little Warm simply took advantage of that bias to give what appears to be their career-best efforts.

A Little Warm has outrun expectations for much of his career, and he could very well do so again in the Jim Dandy. I admire the horse. But he's the 7-2 second-choice in the morning line, and he's coming off a lifetime best effort where he took advantage of a bias to beat only three horses. And so I remain skeptical about his ability to be effective at the Jim Dandy distance of nine furlongs.

Also, A Little Warm was very fresh for that race and shouldn't be quite as eager today. But even if Miner's Reserve gets clear, Friend Or Foe, who has been sprinting, should ensure some lively fractions. That's why the Jim Dandy from here appears to set the table for the horses most capable of finishing with energy down the lane, and that's why Fly Down is the one to beat. A good looking chestnut colt whose stride devours real estate, he ran the last three-eighths of a mile in 36.67 when he won the Dwyer by six lengths. And with a better trip, he could have won the Belmont.

Yes, Fly Down is the one to beat. And Afleet Express just might beat him. After a sluggish start, Afleet Express raced a little wide throughout to win the Pegasus, rallying into a modest pace on a dull surface. That was a coming-of-age performance. This colt has glowed with potential since his debut last year, but bad luck and worse gate habits compromised his talent. No scholar, he has been slow to develop, but he seems to be moving in the right direction, and he's more versatile than Fly Down. Aikenite, who could be overlooked, is another who can run down the lane. He wasn't effective on synthetic surfaces, he had a horrible trip in the Holy Bull and a rough experience in the Preakness, but he could be a good situation here.

Selections: Afleet Express, Fly Down, Aikenite, Steinbeck.  

   

A line on the larger race

In anticipation of tomorrow's (Friday's) column in the Star-Telegram (http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/07/29/2371992/race-for-top-3-year-old-heats.html#none) and this weekend's races at Saratoga and Monmouth Park, here's a line on the race to be the champion 3-year-old.

Rank. Horse, odds: comment

1. Lookin At Lucky, 5-2: The Preakness winner, who returns in Sunday's Haskell, is the most accomplished horse of his generation, and even if he has been unlucky, he makes winning seem routine.

2. Super Saver, 3-1: The Kentucky Derby winner, said to be training superbly, returns in the Haskell, too, where his athleticism could enable him to refurbish his reputation.

3. Ice Box, 5-1: The fiery chestnut disappointed as the favorite in the Belmont, but a Haskell victory would put him back in the game.

4. Trappe Shot, 6-1: Late to the party, he has won four consecutive races by a total of 29 1/2 lengths and could be good enough to challenge for head of the class.

5. Fly Down, 10-1: The Belmont runner-up could make a late bid for honors, starting with Saturday's Jim Dandy at Saratoga.

6. Afleet Express, 12-1: Although lightly raced, the Pegasus winner is another late developer who could make a statement this weekend.

7. First Dude, 15-1: He always runs well to be close, as in second in the Preakness and third in the Belmont, but obviously needs to find a little more.

8. Eskendereya, 20-1: Dominant before his injury, he would be the default choice.

9. Concord Point, 25-1: He looked sensational winning the Iowa Derby in his first start on dirt.

10. A Little Warm, 30-1: His recent win in Delaware suggests he could be very tough in the Jim Dandy and beyond.

11. All others, 12-1: This includes Sidney's Candy, Paddy O'Prado, Miner's Reserve, Comedero and Skipshot.

Is Rachel back?

She won the Fleur De Lis by more  than 10 lengths, she won the Lady's Secret by three, and those consecutive victories make it clear that Rachel Alexandra's back. Right?

I'm not so sure. If by "back" we mean a return to the form of a year ago, when Rachel Alexandra won eight consecutive stakes, including the Preakness, the Haskell and the Woodward, then, well,  I don't think she's back. That sensational filly, I suspect, will never be back. This year's Rachel Alexandra, however, could prove, by season's end, to be just as good and just as talented, but she's a different horse.

Rachel Alexandra, make no mistake, is performing at a very high level. Her Fleur De Lis was sensational, certainly one of the best, if not the very best, performance of the year yet given by a filly or mare. And her performance Saturday in the Lady's Secret was very solid. When Rachel Alexandra wins by 10, some (especially those Zenyatta loyalists who consider admiration of any other horse tantamount to infidelity) criticize her for taking advantage of weak company; when she wins by only three, some criticize her for being unspectacular. But, in truth, she has run very well this year, and she has been outstanding in her recent victories.

But she hasn't been the Rachel Alexandra of 2009. This Rachel Alexandra has grown up. She's bigger, heavier, and like some human athletes who lose some speed when they mature into a larger body, she's not quite as quick as she was a year ago. The Lady's Secret is illustrative.

A length behind Queen Martha, Rachel Alexandra stalked an opening half-mile in 47.92 seconds. She gradually gained through three-quarters in 1:12.30 led to the furlong marker in 1:37.03 and completed the nine furlongs in 1:49.78.

Compare that to Rachel Alexandra's race last year at Monmouth, where she stalked Munnings, who led the Haskell through an opening half-mile in 46.43 seconds. Granted, the surface last year was considerably faster than it was Saturday, but even when adjusted for the difference, her opening half-mile this year was about 4 1/4 lengths slower than her opening half-mile in the Haskell. And Saturday, again with an adjustment for the difference in surfaces, she was about six lengths slower after three-quarters than she was a year ago, when she went on to win the Haskell by six lengths over Summer Bird, completing the nine furlongs in 1:47.21.

That performance was indisputably one of the best of her career. But the most striking difference between that effort and her performance in the Lady's Secret was the opening half-mile. She wasn't as quick Saturday. And she hasn't been as quick all year as she was in her best efforts of 2009. Based on my personal pace figures (a speed figure that quantifies the half-mile), which I adjust for the surface and the run to the turn, she typically has been 2-4 lengths slower for the opening half-mile this year. She's bigger, heavier and stronger, but she's not as quick.

The Rachel Alexandra of 2009 won't be back because that horse has been absorbed by another. The reigning Horse of the Year has developed into a recognizable but somewhat different racehorse -- different, but still superbly talented. She also appears -- not surprisingly since she's older -- to be more  tractable, perhaps even more poised and relaxed, than she was a year ago. In other words, this filly, this 2010 version, although not quite as quick, could be even better suited to 10 furlongs than the Rachel Alexandra of 2009. In the Lady's Secret, she got stronger throughout (52-78-101-105) the race and pulled away from Queen Martha in a final furlong of 12.75 seconds.  At the wire, it was nearly eight more lengths back to third. Last year, over a much faster surface, Rachel Alexandra pulled away from Summer Bird with a final furlong in 12.92 seconds, and at the wire it was another length back to Munnings in third.

Prior to the Lady's Secret, Rachel Alexandra's trainer, Steve Asmussen, explained that the reason for choosing the Monmouth race over this weekend's Ruffian was timing, suggesting that the New Jersey sojourn would set up the filly ideally for her next outing. And when she returned to Saratoga on Sunday, Asmussen said "there's a chance she can run" there.

Her owner, Jess Jackson, will make the call, as always, but it would seem there are two Saratoga options, the Personal Ensign on Aug. 29 at 1 1/4 miles and The Woodward on Sept. 4 at 1 1/8 miles. The attraction of the Personal Ensign would be, of course, the challenge of the classic distance. And now, as Del Mar has exerpienced some problems with its synthetic surface and horsemen have expressed some concerns, there looms the possibility that Zenyatta also could run in the Personal Ensign, the possibility, in other words, that the sport's fans will finally get the showdown they have clamored to see for a year.

And wouldn't it be irresistable for the Zenyatta connections to take on Rachel Alexandra at 1 1/4 miles? The distance, after all, would certainly favor the older, unbeaten mare.

I've always thought that when these two great racehorses finally meet -- if indeed they ever do -- circumstances will determine the outcome. I've always believed that at 1 1/16 miles Rachel Alexandra would have the edge and that at 1 1/4 miles the advantage would tilt in the other direction. But this new Rachel Alexandra could demand a reconsideration; for this filly, 1 1/4 miles just might be perfect. And if that proves true, then Rachel  Alexandra's entire season crystalizes into a plan to get to the Breeders' Cup Classic.   

  

Texas at the crossroads

Here's how bad the situation has become in Texas. At Friday's meeting on race dates at Lone Star Park, where representatives of the racetracks, the horsemen and the Texas Racing Commission came together to discuss what can be done to try to save the industry, trainer Jack Bruner said that he'll soon be "in the process of moving to another state where there's better racing and more money" unless something happens to reverse the downward trend.

That something, for immediate relief anyway, is the proposal to consolidate the Sam Houston and Lone Star thoroughbred meetings into one 60-day season in Grand Prairie. That would eliminate for next year the thoroughbred meeting at Sam Houston. But it would enable Lone Star to increase purses from the current $145,000 a day to $230,000 next year.

Bruner presently sits in fourth place in the trainers' standings with 36 victories. He trains horses for Tom Durant, a prominent local businessman who's the all-time leading owner at Lone Star. Durant and Bruner focus their entire operation on the Lone Star season. They'll send a few horses elsewhere during the year, but for the most part they aim at Lone Star. And their aim has been true. They've won with 38 percent of their starters this season.

Durant also has a small breeding operation. He stands Touch Tone. And so Durant is very active in the Texas-bred program and owns many of the best state-breds in the area. And if Bruner and Durant are contemplating a move, then Texas racing is indeed in serious trouble.

But Bruner also said Friday that if the plan for consolidation is adopted, then instead of leaving the state they'll begin working on upgrading their stable.

At Friday's meeting some horsemen spoke about what a hardship the consolidation would cause because of the loss of race dates at Sam Houston. A couple guys said it would put them out of business.

But Andrea Young, the president and chief operating officer of Sam Houston, said, "We can't keep our doors open if we continue the way we're going."

And Drew Shubeck, the president and general manager of Lone Star, said that if the consolidation isn't adopted, then the track would not apply for 60 days next year. It would have to cut its dates in an effort to maintain purses. The guess here is that Lone Star would apply for somewhere around 40 days.

And so is that the painful choice, either some horsemen go out of business or the tracks do? And, of course, if the tracks go out of business, the horsemen will, too.

But maybe that isn't really the choice. Eugene Joyce, the president and general manager of Turf Paradise in Phoenix, Ariz., having heard of Texas' troubles, was at Lone Star on Friday recruiting stables.    

An early indicator that Texas might be on the right track

Donnie Von Hemel had been among the leading trainers at Lone Star Park ever since the racetrack opened in 1997. But last year, he took his large stable to Arlington Park near Chicago. Von Hemel lives in Piedmont, Oklahoma, and so racing down the road in Texas was comfortable for him, comfortable, too, for his family, for his wife Robin and daughter Tess. Economics, however, wouldn't allow the trainer much comfort: Economics demanded Von Hemel make the move to Arlington, where the purses were much higher than in Texas and rewarding enough to allow a top trainer to maintain a top stable. But Von Hemel could contemplate a return, depending, of course, on what Texas racetracks do regarding next year's racing calendar.

Desperate to improve the quality of racing in the state, Texas racetracks have proposed a consolidated thoroughbred season at Lone Star for next year. The latest proposal would lead to a 60-day Lone Star season with purses at $230,000 a day, up more than 50 percent from the $150,000 being offered this year.

The details aren't close to being finalized, and the Texas Racing Commission has just opened the application period for dates, but everybody except perhaps the most benighted of horsemen understands that the future of the sport in the state depends on improving the quality of the the racing, which can be done only by increasing purses dramatically. That's why Von Hemel's comments today were meaningful.

"If that happens," Von Hemel said about the proposed consolidation at Lone Star, "I'll have to reevaluate plans for where we're going to race next year." 

For many years, Von Hemel has been one of the leading trainers in the region. He has a stable that's rich in stakes horses and potential stakes performers, horses such as Euphony and Going Ballistic. And he has a history of success. His long list of stakes winners includes Brownie Points, Mr. Ross, Bien Nicole, Illusive Ghost, Mariah's Storm and, of course, Clever Trevor. In Von Hemel's barn, a racehorse of quality will likely continue winning stakes for years. Quite simply, Von Hemel is one of the best horsemen in the country.

And if he's even thinking about a return to Texas, that's an indication Texas could be moving in the right direction. 

   

Making the grade

Charles Hayward's disappointment was quite understandable. But the NYRA president's suggestion that he was also puzzled had the unfortunate ring of haughty disdain. He sounded like the dowager socialite who was puzzled and more than a little annoyed that her nephew would shun her tea party in favor of a beach party.

The cause of all this puzzlement and disappointment was, of course, Rachel Alexandra, who won't race Aug. 1 in the Grade  I Ruffian at Saratoga but will instead run July 24 at Monmouth Park in the Lady's Secret Stakes, or, as Hayward put it, "a non-graded race." Oh, the shame of it.

Monmouth Park officials shuffled the calendar and pulled out the checkbook, moving the race forward a week and increasing the purse from $150,000 to $400,000, surpassing the Ruffian purse by $150,000, all to make it more appealing to the reigning Horse of the Year, and so of course she's going to run there. And general manager Bob Kulina deserves credit for making it happen. More racetracks should be so flexible and imaginative in trying to put on a show and attract the best horses.

The Monmouth race is richer and it's a better fit for Rachel Alexandra's calendar than the Ruffian. As for the little Roman numeral, the adornment that Hayward was apparently counting on and brandishing, it has about as much allure as the dowager socialite's silver tea set. Who cares that the Ruffian is a Grade I? Certainly the reigning Horse of the Year and her connections shouldn't care about a little Roman numeral. And, in truth, nobody should care. Not much anyway. To make assumptions based on Roman numerals -- that is, on a race's grade -- is, at best, narrow minded.

For many years, there has been a discrepancy between the quality of stakes races and their grades. It's inevitable, no matter how admirable the Graded Stakes Committee's intentions, that the grading will dawdle behind the curve. The quality of the competition, which can only be evaluated in retrospect, determines the true status of a race; a committee convening months in advance can't.

Just look at Saturday's Grade I American Oaks at Hollywood Park. As with the Ruffian, the Oaks' gaudy Roman numeral meant little; it attracted nobody beyond the locals who probably would have been running had the race been Grade II or Grade III or perhaps not graded at all. The Oaks' seven-horse field included two stakes winners. That's not a Grade I event by anybody's standards.

The race's Grade I status was based on those $750,000 editions that attracted fillies from around the world. Wait A While, Cesario, Pure Clan, Dance In The Mood, Ticker Tape -- they made the American Oaks a terrific race, a genuine Grade I event. But, of course, they didn't race Saturday. And if the purse had been $250,000 when they were 3, they probably wouldn't have raced in it then either.

But Saturday's $250,000 American Oaks was indeed a Grade I by official if not by any justifiable reckoning, and so Harmonious has become a Grade I winner in her stakes debut. She's a beautiful filly, and she has a bright future. But, frankly, that Grade I status was flapdoodle, pure flapdoodle, and that's why nobody should brandish his Roman numeral as if it's a silver tea set.