Horse racing

Handicapping Million Day, Part II

Eighth race: The Cinemine. This is one of the more contentious of the Million Day stakes. Bob Baffert has sent Bonnie Blue Flag here for the occasion, and she'll no doubt prove tough. She has won consecutive races in Southern California. But she never has raced over a dirt track, and she'll probably be favored today, not just because of her recent accomplishments but because Baffert has won with nearly half (16 of 33) of the horses he has brought to Lone Star over the years. At short odds, she may not be attractive. From here, Kinsolving, who's 6-1 in the morning line, has more appeal. She ran third in a recent stakes at Prairie Meadows, which can be a speed-favoring surface, and she should love today's seven furlong distance. With Cosmo Girl in the field, the pace will certainly heat up, and it could open the door for Kinsolving. Golden Striker is also intriguing. She just scored a maiden victory in style, and she has been training sensationally. But she's entered in a race here next Friday and so could be a scratch. Another maiden winner, Offlee Classy, appears to have considerable talent. Nor would Shotgun Gulch, who won the Dixie Belle at Oaklawn but was compromised by a slow pace in her most recent outing, be a surprising winner. Selections: Kinsolving, Bonnie Blue Flag, Golden Striker, Offlee Classy.

Ninth race: The Dallas Turf Cup. Lone Star's turf course can be one of the more speed favoring courses in the country. And that could play to the advantage of Wise River. On a yielding course, he led the Turf Classic into the stretch at Churchill Downs, but then faltered to finish eighth. But he's a much better horse on firm ground, as he proved last year with a string of sharp efforts. In his second start following a layoff, on Lone Star's firm course, he could very well return to that form, which would make him formidable. El Gato Malo, who won the Lone Star Derby two years ago, returns for his seasonal debut. Since that 2008 victory here, he probably gave his best effort on the turf at Del Mar when he returned from a six-month layoff. Today, he'll make his first start in six months. Glowing Praise, who ran third in the Inglewood Handicap at Hollywood, appears to be improving, and Deal Breaker showed his fondness for the local course when he won the Grand Prairie Turf Challenge. Selections: Wise River, El Gato Malo, Glowing Praise, Deal Breaker.

Tenth race: The Lone Star Park Handicap. The richest of the Million Day stakes, this has attracted an outstanding field that includes Mythical Power, who won the the Texas Mile in his most recent outing and the Lone Star Derby a year ago; Euroears, who led the Texas Mile until deep stretch; Awesome Gem, who could go over $2 million in earnings with a victory; Jonesboro, a millionaire who ran second by a head in this race a year ago; Fifteen Love, who won the Maxxam in Houston and ran third in the Texas Mile; and Redding Colliery, who won the Campbell Handicap at Laurel.

A strikingly handsome colt, Redding Colliery ran third last year in two stakes in Dubai behind Desert Party and Regal Ransom, who both went on to run in the Kentucky Derby. Since coming to this country, Redding Colliery has been slow to realize his potential, in part perhaps because of an abundance of bad racing luck. But his recent races suggest he's finally putting it all together. He has won two of his last three, his only loss being a third in the $1 million Charles Town Classic, where he stalked a rapid pace and made the lead in mid-stretch. He has made quite a positive impression in his few days here. And he could enjoy a perfect trip stalking Euroears. Selections: Redding Colliery, Mythical Power, Awesome Gem, Fifteen Love.   

Handicapping Million Day, Part I

The Million Day program at Lone Star Park has become an annual celebration of what Texas horse racing can be. In many ways, Texas remains benighted, trapped in the 1990s. Betting over the internet, for example, is not legal here. Many people, of course, ignore the prohibition since it can't be enforced; but none of those dollars wagered over the internet on horse racing ever get back to the state's racetracks. Nor can Texans enjoy off-track wagering or gaming -- unless, of course, they leave. And many do, with millions of people taking billions of dollars to neighboring states, which offer gaming and off-track betting. And so the purses at nearby tracks have increased steadily in recent years, partly with Texas money. Meanwhile, purses at Texas racetracks have declined. But on Monday, Million Day, Lone Star Park will put on a program of quality racing. Yes, it's what Texas horse racing can be. Anyway, here's a look at Monday's seven stakes at Lone Star.

Fourth race: The Carter McGregor Jr. Memorial Stakes. Making his first start in nearly two months, Southern Vintage recently finished second to Sing Baby Sing, one of the region's best sprinters. And so Southern Vintage is the one to beat as he takes on Texas-breds for the first time this year. Quiet Again comes here from Sunland Park, where won a stakes race and finished second in two others. He's certainly formidable, but he's probably better around two turns. Majestic Vintage, a 3-year-old facing older horses, appears to be improving and could complete multi-horse investments. Selections: Southern Vintage, Quiet Again, Majestic Vintage, Little Talk.

Fifth race: The Ouija Board Distaff. Wasted Tears, an elegant mare who hasn't lost on the turf in more than two years, will attempt to win this race again. Last year, it was her coming-out party. She battled on a rapid pace (45.36 seconds for the opening half-mile; 1:08.18 for three-quarters), and then, after losing the lead momentarily, fought back to win her first stakes, completing the mile in 1:32.81, a course record. There's other speed in here, most notably Bubbler, the temperamental filly (she has been known to lose her mind between the paddock and the track) who won Irving Distaff. But Wasted Tears has proven she can run through a speed trap and end up in the winner's circle. And this year she has won the Honey Fox at Gulfstream Park and the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland, where she defeated Forever Together, to suggest she's one of the best turf mares in the country, and so it's hard to see her losing over this course where she's undefeated four starts. Slide On Bye and Fortunia should benefit from a lively pace, and Love To Tell is a stakes winning mare, but this is all about Wasted Tears. Selections: Wasted Tears, Bubbler, Slide On Bye, Love To Tell.

Sixth race: The Valid Expectations. Bob Baffert has won 16 stakes races over the years at Lone Star, from only 33 starters. He'll possibly, or probably, add to the total today. He has three horses entered in today's Lone Star stakes, starting with Mother Ruth here. She's the 6-5 morning-line favorite, but the Valid Expectations appears to be competitive, with very little separating the top two and with a long shot, No Other Tone, having in my view a good chance to upset. Mother Ruth won her most recent outing on Hollywood's synthetic track, but last year she proved she's at least as good, maybe better, on dirt. She could be vulnerable, however, because her last win was, if anything, too easy. It was one of those slow-paced paces that you often see in Southern California and that may not prepare a horse for the faster-paced dirt races. (Her last two pace figures, by my calculations, have been 70 and 82; Elle A Gent, Auntgrace and No Other Tone have all put up 90+ pace figures in recent races.) Simplify, the 9-5 second choice, has been aimed at this race for some time, and last year she showed her talent by winning a restricted stakes at Saratoga. She no doubt will be tough. But from here, No Other Tone, at 12-1, looks most intriguing. She ran a race here last year that, if she could duplicate it, would be good enough to win. And although she has run only once this season, finishing a troubled third, she has been training sensationally for some time. In a recent five-furlong move, for example, she ran the last furlong in 11.86 seconds, completing the distance in 59.44. And jockey Chris Landeros had a firm hold on her. Selections: No Other Tone, Simplify, Mother Ruth, Auntgrace.

Seventh race: USA Stakes. This may be the most uncertain of the stakes simply because the best horse in the field, Coyote Legend, never has raced on turf. He has won five consecutive stakes, and if he can transfer that level of performance to the turf he'll win his sixth. He worked a slow half-mile (51.80 around the "dogs") last Monday, and afterwards his jockey, Bobby Walker Jr., who was up for the work, said Coyote Legend handled the surface well. But he also said that you never know for sure whether a horse will handle the grass until you set him down and call on him. If Coyote Legend doesn't take his best race to the turf, then Looks Purrfect becomes the most likely winner. He recently finished third at Keeneland, running the final three-eighths of a mile in less than 36 seconds. Speed is always a threat on this turf course, and Golden Euro led throughout to win his only turf outing. Fortunia, who should be unbeaten on turf but had a nightmarish trip to be second in her last, looked very good in a recent workout, and she could be a threat if her connections choose to run here rather than in the Ouija Board. And for some long shot options, B'Wanagoldmine and Perfect Lou are training well. Selections: Coyote Legend, Looks Purrfect, Golden Euro, Fortunia.

The Million Day morning line

Seven stakes will be run Monday at Lone Star Park, which the track promotes as Million Day. (The purses for the 11 races actually total $1,023,000.) Three of the stakes are graded, and for those here's the morning line.

5th race: $200,000 Ouija Board Stakes, fillies and mares, one mile, turf.

1. Bubbler, 9-5

2. The Cat Who, 15-1

3. Love To Tell, 15-1

4. Slide On Bye, 8-1

5. Wasted Tears, 4-5

6. Fortunia, 20-1

9th race: $150,000 Dallas Turf Cup, older horses, 1 1/16 miles, turf.

1. Jake Wil Gallop, 20-1

2. Glowing Praise, 7-2

3. Deal Breaker, 3-1

4. Wise River, 10-1

5. El Gato Malo, 5-2

6. And Music Came, 12-1

7. Favorite Jazz, 30-1

8. Precious Colony, 15-1

9. Unbridle's Dream, 12-1

10. Fifteen Love, 8-1

11. Little Wagon, 20-1

10th race: $300,000 Lone Star Park Handicap, older horses, 1 1/16 miles.

1. Jonesboro, 15-1

2. Golden Yank, 15-1

3. Awesome Gem, 2-1

4. Redding Colliery, 3-1

5. Fifteen Love, 12-1

6. Mythical Power, 5-2

7. Euroears, 8-1

8. Indy Express, 30-1

More arrive for Million Day

Awesome Gem and Mythical Power arrived today on a flight from California and quickly took up residence in the Lone Star Park stable area, but in different barns. They'll see each other again Monday, in the $300,000 Lone Star Park Handicap.  

Awesome Gem, of course, is an admirable veteran who has earned $1.9 million in a career that includes victories in the Hawthorne Gold Cup and San Fernando, a third in the Breeders' Cup Classic and a second in the Pacific Classic. By comparison, Mythical Power is an upstart, but the 4-year-old is unbeaten at Lone Star, having won last year's Lone Star Derby and this year's Texas Mile. Trained, of course, by Bob Baffert, he'll be ridden by Martin Garcia. The hottest team in racing, they won the recent Preakness Stakes with Lookin At Lucky.

Also expected for the Lone Star Park Handicap are Redding Colliery, Euroears, Jonesboro, Fifteen Love and Golden Yank. Redding Colliery, who won the Campbell Handicap at Laurel and, most recently, finished third in the Charles Town Classic, arrived Wednesday from New York via Kentucky. He went to the local track for the first time this morning. He'll be ridden Monday by Rosie Napravnik, who in 2006, as the leading jockey in Maryland, was the runner-up in the Eclipse voting for the outstanding apprentice rider. She's currently the second leading rider at Delaware Park.

Also on the plane arriving today from California were El Gato Malo, Deal Breaker and Glowing Praise for the Dallas Turf Cup, Mother Ruth for Valid Expectations and Bonnie Blue Flag for the Cinemine.

It just got a little better

Monday’s $300,000 Lone Star Park Handicap, which was already looking like it had to be the best race of the season, just got a little better. Redding Colliery has checked into the Lone Star stable area, arriving moments ago, along with Euroears.

Redding Colliery, who early last year raced in Dubai and then was slow to make the transition to this country, has strung together three sharp performances this year. After winning an allowance race at Aqueduct in his seasonal debut, the son of Mineshaft won the Campbell Handicap at Laurel. Last month, after pressing a lively pace and making the lead in mid-stretch, he finished third in the Charles Town Classic behind Researcher and Awesome Gem. Redding Colliery has won four of 14 in his career, with earnings of $228,853.

Euroears, who’s also nominated to the Lone Star Park Handicap, finished second, giving up the lead in the final yards, to Mythical Power in the recent Texas Mile. That was the first start around two turns for the accomplished sprinter. He has won eight of 14 in his career, with earnings of $369,506.

Two others expected for the Lone Star Park Handicap turned in their final serious workouts this morning. Jonesboro worked a sharp five furlongs in 1:00.46, with a final quarter-mile in 24.14 seconds. He galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.12. And Fifteen Love worked six furlongs in 1:13 with a final quarter-mile in 24.68. Also among those expected for the Lone Star Park Handicap are multiple stakes winners Mythical Power, Awesome Gem and Duke of Mischief.

And Wasted Tears, who hasn’t lost on the turf in more than two years, had her final workout this morning for Monday’s Ouija Board. She went an easy five furlongs with Cliff Berry riding in 1:01.80, with a final quarter-mile in 25.44 seconds.

Could he become one of the best?

He left there on time, he arrived with time to spare, and between the one and the other he did nothing wrong. Could it be he’s growing up, figuring things out? If so, Afleet Express could soon take his place among the best 3-year-olds in the country.

Saturday at Belmont Park, Afleet Express finally put it all together, meaning he for the first time coordinated his talent with an objective: And the result was a resounding victory. He left the starting gate alertly, which was the first indicator that some maturing had taken place, and after running under restraint but within a whisper of the lead, he came down the Belmont stretch like an avalanche.

Distancing himself quickly from any threat, he won by nearly eight lengths. Despite being taken in hand in the final yards, he completed the seven furlongs in 1:21.72, an outstanding time for the day, while running the final three-eighths of a mile in 36.13 seconds. (The only other seven-furlong race Saturday on the main track at Belmont was run in 1:26.77.)

The race was run around one turn, of course, and it wasn’t even a stakes, but, make no mistake, it was an announcement. Afleet Express could be one of the most talented 3-year-olds in the country. Now, if he can only do it again. And again. If so --  well, as his trainer, Jimmy Jerkens, said, you don’t want to get too far ahead of yourself.

“We just hope he can keep it up,” Jerkens said. “We always thought he was a special horse.”

When Afleet Express made his debut last December at Aqueduct, he flashed his potential: for racing but also for dysfunctional behavior. He left the gate slowly, awkwardly, in a tangle that because of his hesitation ensnared him. He dropped back, ducked in and then found himself far behind. But this was a potential stakes horse running against maidens, the lightning and the lightning bugs, a mismatch. Afleet Express recovered, advanced inside, and then swung outside for the run down the stretch. Despite the troubled start, he won, running the final quarter-mile through the mud in 24.03 seconds and finishing in hand.

And so, Jerkens explained, they went to Gulfstream Park with high expectations and hopes. The trainer didn’t say so, but surely somebody close to the horse even dared to dream about a sojourn to Kentucky. This after all was a very talented son of a horse who had won two-thirds of the 2005 Triple Crown, Afleet Alex. His debut turned heads, and his early morning workouts sparkled.

“He had some brilliant workouts along the way,” Jerkens said about Afleet Express. “We knew the talent was there.”

But in his first start at Gulfstream, Afleet Express again had trouble. Or rather he invited trouble to tag along with him, to come out to the track for an afternoon of Florida sunshine and racing; and, as you’ve probably noticed, trouble never turns down an invitation. Afleet Express again walked out of the starting gate, and he again fell far behind. He rallied wide in the turn and finished full of run, but he finished second, nearly two lengths behind General Maximus, a good horse who has never been mistaken for a lightning bug.

In his next outing, while racing in a shadow roll for the first time, Afleet Express didn’t leave the gate alertly so much as he left there confused, not on time necessarily but not so tardy that any teacher would give him a demerit. But having done that, he didn’t know what to do next. This was completely unfamiliar, right here in the middle of things. He finished fifth. And at this point, it probably became obvious to all concerned that Afleet Express, in spite of all his talent, was no scholar. But he could be quite a racehorse.

Lest the colt’s mistakes become habits, Jerkens gave Afleet Express some time, gave him a little freshening. And in the process, Afleet Express grew, became stronger, matured. A masterful horseman, Jerkens also took the colt back to the classroom. The trainer explained that he schooled Afleet Express differently in the gate.

And then it all came together Saturday at Belmont Park: Afleet Express left there on time, he arrived with time to spare, and between the one and the other he did nothing wrong.

Jerkens said no plans are definite, but the Pegasus Stakes, run June 19 at Monmouth Park, is a possibility for the colt’s next start. With his easy, rhythmic stride and his pedigree, Afleet Express would seem to be the sort of horse, Jerkens said, who could excel around two turns. And at 1 1/16 miles, the Pegasus would present him with a good opportunity to do just that.

“We naturally hope he can become one of the best 3-year-olds in the country,” Jerkens said, “but you don’t want to get too far ahead of yourself.”

Of course not. Would never want to advance too far down the road, too far ahead, out there among the myriad possibilities, where you have to push and shove just to make a little room for a new arrival, but, well, that was quite a performance Saturday.

It could be Awesome, Mythical and regal

Awesome Gem, Mythical Power and Duke of Mischief are expected, along with Euroears, El Gato Malo and Jonesboro. Wasted Tears and Dubai Majesty are possible, along with Going Balls and Palanka City. Based on quality, Lone Star Park’s Million Day, May 31, almost certainly will be the best day of racing in Texas this year. By far.

The day features seven stakes races, including the $300,000 Lone Star Park Handicap, where Mythical Power could become the first horse since Dixie Dot Com in 2001 to sweep the track’s richest races for older horses. He could also become the first ever to sweep Lone Star’s three richest races. In his last outing, coming here from California for trainer Bob Baffert, Mythical Power won the Texas Mile, with Martin Garcia riding the colt for the first time. Last year, Mythical Power won the Lone Star Derby. Perhaps it’s also worth noting that his sire, Congaree, won the 2002 Lone Star Park Handicap.

Appropriately enough for Million Day, the field for the Lone Star Park Handicap, which matches older horses at 1 1/16 miles, will include two millionaires. In fact, with a victory, Awesome Gem would push his earnings past $2 million. The venerable veteran, who’s probably best known for finishing third behind Curlin in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic, won last year’s Hawthorne Gold Cup, and he appears to be in good form, having finished third in the New Orleans Handicap and second in the Charles Town Classic in his most recent outings. Jonesboro, the other millionaire in the filed, has earned $1.5 million in his career; he ran second in last year’s Lone Star Park Handicap after winning the Texas Mile.

Like Mythical Power, Duke Of Mischief will enter the race on a roll. He won last year’s Iowa Derby by five lengths and then finished fifth in the Haskell. He has won two stakes this year, the Fort Lauderdale at Gulfstream Park and, most recently, the Oaklawn Handicap. Also expected for the Lone Star Park Handicap are Euroears, Golden Yank and Indy Express.

The $200,000 Ouija Board Distaff, which matches older fillies at a mile on the turf, could also deliver some star power to Million Day, depending on Wasted Tears, who’s probably one of the best horses in the country that few people have heard of. She’s likely for the race, but she’s also possible for the $400,000 Just A Game on June 5 at Belmont Park. She has been training here at Lone Star, and her owner-trainer-breeder, Bart Evans, said her running in New York could depend on travel arrangements.

“We’ll take a look at it and work things out,” Evans said about the Just A Game. “When you have to ship across the country, a lot can happen. But when you can just walk out of your stall and run, it’s a lot easier.”

Wasted Tears hasn’t lost on the grass in more than two years. Her pearly string of eight turf victories includes last season’s Ouija Board and, most recently, the Jenny Wiley at Keeneland, where she defeated the formidable champion Forever Together.

While Wasted Tears may or may not make a local appearance, Bubbler is considered definite for the Ouija Board. A notoriously temperamental filly, Bubbler has won six of her eight outings, including the Irving Distaff Stakes earlier this season. Also among the possibilities for the Ouija Board are Hasty, I’mneverwrong, Czechers, Double Espresso, Love To Tell, Skedee, Slide On Bye and Dubai Majesty, who has won half of her four turf starts while earning $614,888.

El Gato Malo, who won the Lone Star Derby two years ago, is expected to be on the plane that arrives here Thursday from California. Eighth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, he’ll make his seasonal debut in the $150,000 Dallas Turf Cup, which brings together older horses at 1 1/16 miles. Golden Balls, who finished fourth in the Arcadia Handicap at Santa Anita, could also be on that plane, along with Quindici Man and Glowing Praise, the second and third finishers in the recent Inglewood Handicap at Hollywood, and Deal Breaker, who came here with trainer Mike Mitchell to win last month’s Grand Prairie Turf Challenge. Other possibilities for the Dallas Turf Cup include Going Ballistic, Favorite Jazz, Deputiformer, Fifteen Love, Precious Colony, Wise River and Unbridled’s Dream.

Baffert is expected to bring three horses for the big day. In addition to Mythical Power, he’ll send out Mother Ruth in the $75,000 Valid Expectations and Bonnie Blue Flag in the Cinemine. Stakes winner Palanka City and Rated Fiesty are also possible for the Valid Expectations; Bella Diamante, D’Oro Deelites, Shotgun Gulch and Tin Top Cat for the Cinemine. And Coyote Legend, who has won five consecutive stakes, will go for another in the $100,000 USA, where he could take on Gallant Gent, Random Move, Perfect Lou, Nuggets Please and Shoot It’s War.

Still trying to understand what horses say to us

Horses talk to us, if we’ll just take the time to listen. In the saddling area and the post parade, walking around the barn or to and from the track, they talk with a body language that can be, in some cases, eloquent. Magnificent creatures, they define themselves on the track, and if we listen carefully and look closely we just might grasp the definition. They send messages with their workouts and their gallops, messages that transcend simple attempts to measure such things in temporal or spatial terms. Horses talk to us, but even if we take the time to listen we sometimes misunderstand what they’re saying.

“They can give you all the signs they’re doing well,” said Elliott Walden, the former trainer who’s the vice president and racing manager for WinStar Farm, “as he (Super Saver) did from the Derby to the Preakness, but you don’t know for sure.”

No, we can’t know for sure. Super Saver, I thought, looked terrific in the days just before the Preakness Stakes. Of all the horses that arrived Wednesday in Baltimore, he was the only one who bounced off the van. The next morning, he just jogged around the track, but still he bounced, full, I thought, of eagerness. He looked a little leaner perhaps, but that was expected since only two weeks earlier he had run 1 1/4 miles in the Derby. But he glistened, a picture of health. And when he galloped Friday, he moved with strength and purpose, pulling his exercise rider around the oval.

No, we can’t know for sure. And then, of course, there’s this problem: People rarely see without wanting. Desire affects observation. Sometimes, we don’t look to see what’s there so much as we look to justify preconceptions. In other words, we often see what we want to see. Also, we’re always looking through the lens of our own experience. And so except perhaps in a laboratory, pure objectivity exists largely as a fiction or an ideal.

Aware of that, aware also that I, like most people, would have liked to see a horse go to Belmont with a chance to sweep the Triple Crown, I asked a couple people whose opinion I respect what they thought of Super Saver’s appearance at Pimlico. They agreed that he looked terrific.

At Churchill Downs, Super Saver also appeared to be full of enthusiastic energy, but it was restrained and poised. At Pimlico, he was, well, exuberant. I took that as a positive, as evidence that he was still progressing. But, of course, it wasn’t positive. Still hungover from the Derby, he languished in the Pimlico stretch and finished eighth. Seeing isn't always believing; sometimes it's humbling.

If I hadn't take the time to see Super Saver at Pimlico, then I probably would have picked Lookin At Lucky in the Preakness. On the other hand, if I hadn't taken the time to listen to Super Saver at Churchill, I wouldn’t have picked him in the Derby.

When I got home from Baltimore, I explained, or complained, to my younger son, who asked about the trip and the race, that I had completely misunderstood Super Saver. “So why do you spend so much time watching horses?” he asked.

I thought about that for a while. Finally, I decided that although I may never know for sure I’ll continue to take the time to see and listen in the hope that someday I’ll more fully understand.

Two jewels gone and what did they mean?

The day before the Preakness I think it was, in the Pimlico stable area, I happened upon Derek Ryan, the trainer of Schoolyard Dreams. I asked him to share his thoughts on the Wood Memorial, where Schoolyard Dreams didn’t perform up to expectations. And Ryan’s response was somewhat surprising. Instead of talking, as I expected, about having to run Schoolyard Dreams back quickly in an effort to try to get some Derby-qualifying earnings, instead of talking about the colt’s trouble in the race, Ryan first responded by saying, “Eskendereya was such an awesome horse.”

And that, I think, has to be one of the conclusions derived from two-thirds of the Triple Crown. Ice Box got close to winning the Kentucky Derby, Jackson Bend got close to winning the Preakness, but neither could finish close to Eskendereya. In winning the Fountain of Youth and Wood by a total of 18 lengths, he easily dominated some of the horses that since then have been contenders in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. And so how good was Eskendereya?

Well, he was much better than any of these 3-year-olds who in his absence have taken possession of the Triple Crown stage. Or at least much more talented. It’s probably pointless to speculate about what might have been, about what might have happened if Eskendereya had run in the Florida Derby, as originally planned, instead of the Wood, what might have happened if he hadn’t been injured, what might have happened if he had raced through the Triple Crown. Pointless because that would have been a different horse. Talent alone doesn’t suffice. The sport also rewards, even demands, durability and resilience. That’s especially true in the Triple Crown.

But without Eskendereya, this group of 3-year-olds suddenly seems rather ordinary. That’s the other conclusion derived from two-thirds of the Triple Crown. Yes, it’s still early, and somebody could step up, as Summer Bird did in last year’s Belmont, to assert himself. Yes, one or more of these 3-year-olds could advance beyond ordinary, with the candidates for such development including Lookin At Lucky (left), Super Saver, Fly Down, First Dude and Sidney’s Candy.

A late foal (May 27), Lookin At Lucky is most likely among these 3-year-olds to step forward dramatically, most likely to become the sort of colt capable of successfully taking on the best older horses in the fall. After his Preakness success, Lookin At Lucky has won seven of 10 in his career, yet only once has he won by more than a length. Is he the sort of horse who does just what’s necessary, or is his advantage over his rivals that slim? I suspect the former. If that’s indeed the case, the challenge he’ll face in the fall will make him a much better horse.

Super Saver’s Preakness was too bad to believe. He had nothing in the lane at Pimlico, not a soupcon of energy, and faded to eighth. Elliott Walden, the vice president and racing manager for WinStar, said the colt was “bright” afterwards. An examination revealed no injuries, no pulmonary bleeding, nothing. Walden said the problem wasn’t just the two weeks between the Derby and the Preakness; having run in the Arkansas Derby, Super Saver was making his third start in five weeks. The Preakness represented Super Saver’s first step backwards. Until then, he had progressed steadily. And given a freshening, he could resume that progress. He and Lookin At Lucky, their connections said, are both aimed at the Haskell.

As for the others, Fly Down’s last-to-first rally in the Dwyer suggests he could be formidable in the coming months. He has raced only five times, winning three and twice beating First Dude, the big-headed giant of a horse who also has enormous potential. And don’t forget Sidney’s Candy, the Santa Anita Derby winner. His California races probably didn’t prepare him adequately for the Derby – not because of the synthetic surfaces there but because he was able to crawl along in slow-paced races with an easy lead. Still, his talent sparkled.

But for the moment, the best 3-year-olds are so closely matched, their abilities so comparable, that whenever they meet, circumstances will probably determine the outcome. That’s why the brightest stars in the first two races of the Triple Crown weren’t so much the horses as the jockeys. Calvin Borel saved ground, rode the rail and got Super Saver the perfect trip in the Derby, where they won by more than two lengths. And in the Preakness, replacing Garrett Gomez, Martin Garcia turned Lookin At Lucky’s luck around. The young rider saved ground in the first turn, put Lucky in the clear and finished strongly down the lane. They won by less than a length over First Dude, with Jackson Bend, who had to alter course with three-sixteenths of a mile remaining, a head farther back in third. Garcia got Lucky the winning trip.

And that’s another conclusion about these first two gems. The winning jockeys stood out more than the horses. Nothing against jockeys, but I hope that doesn’t continue. I’d like to see a few of these 3-year-olds step up and step out of the ordinary.

And so it's on to the Belmont -- or maybe not

BALTIMORE -- And so did you hear the one about Nick Zito and the Dudes? Well, just wait three weeks and you’ll certainly hear it because that’ll be the story of the Belmont Stakes on June 5: no Derby winner, no Preakness winner and, sad to say, not much general interest except among the sport’s staunchest fans.

At this very moment, Lookin At Lucky, who won Saturday’s Preakness here at Pimlico, is on his way back to California. And Super Saver, the Kentucky Derby winner, will be pointed towards the Haskell, the Travers and, ultimately, the Breeders’ Cup Classic, according to Elliott Walden, the vice president and racing manager for the colt's owner, WinStar Farms.

And so this upcoming Belmont Stakes will be the first since 2006 not to have a winner of a Triple Crown race, meaning the Derby and/or Preakness, in the field. In the last 10 years, that has happened only twice, the other time being 2000. During that same period, four horses (Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide and War Emblem) have gone to New York with a chance to sweep the famed series and take home sport’s most baroque jewelry.

As the third race in the series, Walden pointed  out, the Belmont Stakes can benefit greatly from the first two stops along the way to create a grand moment of ripening expectations, but the New York race can also be anticlimactic. And this year, the Belmont will be anticlimactic. But if poetic justice is still on the clock June 5, if it’s not vacationing in Cabo San Lucas with Paris Hilton or still malingering with medial tibial stress syndrome, it could smile for a moment that afternoon on Zito, a Hall of Fame trainer who has done an outstanding job this year and who certainly deserves to win this final gem of a race. He sent out Ice Box in the Derby, and after a Lewis-and-Clark trip, the colt finished second. Zito sent out Jackson Bend in the Preakness, and after having to alter course to avoid a tiring horse, the diminutive but courageous colt finished third, about a length back.

And so for the Belmont, Zito has Ice Box and possibly Fly Down, the long-striding Dwyer winner who appears to be improving. Also expected for the Belmont are Game On Dude, the Lone Star Derby winner; Drosselmeyer, the Dwyer runner-up; Make Music For Me, the fourth-place finisher in the Derby; Stately Victor, the Blue Grass winner; Uptowncharlybrown, the third-place finisher in the Lexington; and Stay Put, a winner Derby Day at Churchill. Also possible are First Dude, Dublin, Setsuko and New Madrid.