Horse racing

Valid Expectations colt brings $100,000

A son of Valid Expectations, hip no. 75, sold for $100,000 earlier today, and after 139 racing prospects had gone through the ring, he remained the sale-topper at the Fasig-Tipton auction of 2-year-olds in training at Lone Star Park. The sale was sponsored by the Texas Thoroughbred Association.

Bret Calhoun will train the colt, whose new owner is Jerry Durant. The colt was consigned by Pike Racing (Al Pike), acting as an agent. A Wildcat Heir colt, hip no. 9, who worked a furlong in less than 10 seconds during Sunday's under tack show, will also go to Calhoun's barn. Durant purchased the bay colt sold for $80,000.

The Valid Expectations colt worked a furlong in 10 seconds Sunday (10.03 on my watch, with a gallop-out in 21 for the quarter-mile). He’s out of the Mr. Greeley mare Excellent Review. The Louisiana-bred colt was among several youngsters who flashed some potential going into today's sale, which attracted horsemen from throughout the region, including Steve Asmussen, Hal Wiggins, Dallas Keen, Danny Pish, Larry Robideaux, Bob Young and Allen Milligan.

Maggi Moss was among the owners who described the sale as strong. And that indeed seemed to be the consensus. Nevertheless, the average price slipped slightly from a year ago, when 144 youngsters sold for $17,201. Today's average was $17,064. But given the sharp downturn at most recent sales, even that was somewhat encouraging.

 

Leading the Way on the Road to the Triple Crown: A Mission Accomplished and an Endorsement

Here’s why the sport remains so beautifully dynamic, why all the numbers can’t assimilate its complexity and why all the analyses can’t contain its possibilities: Endorsement. He won Sunday’s Sunland Derby by three lengths over Conveyance, the 3-5 favorite who lost for the first time in his career. And with the victory, Endorsement announced his arrival among the best 3-year-olds in the country.

Yes, the performance was that good. Endorsement followed Conveyance through an easy opening half-mile in 48.04 seconds. When the Rebel and San Felipe winner picked up the pace slightly, completing three-quarters in 1:11.91, Endorsement not only stayed with him, but began to close in. And then Endorsement ran the fourth quarter-mile in 23.87, and that did it.

Conveyance tried through the stretch, he was determined, but especially in the final sixteenth of a mile he simply couldn’t match Endorsement, who completed the nine furlongs in 1:48.46. The Sunland surface was very fast Sunday, but it seemed to be playing fairly: Freedom Star, the 1-2 favorite, led throughout to win the Harry Henson, and Harissa, the 2-1 second choice, stalked the pace on her way to winning the Sunland Park Oaks, but Desert Jack rallied from last to win the New Mexico Breeders’ Derby.

And so in only the fourth start of his career, Endorsement gave one of the best performances of the season by a 3-year-old. He had just scored his maiden victory, on Feb. 20, at Oaklawn Park, leading through soft fractions (24.21, 49.01, 1:14.16, 1:38.86) on his way to completing 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.19. That same day, two races later, Conveyance won the one-mile Rebel Stakes (22.78, 46.25, 1:10.67) in 1:36.94. Although they didn’t run the same distance, Conveyance’s effort was about eight lengths better.

And so how could Endorsement beat him at Sunland? As the sagacious Michael Cusortelli pointed out in a comment to an earlier post, one indication could have been the presence of Robby Albarado. Jockeys don’t run the races and rarely do they win them, but the presence of a top rider such as Albarado was a signal that Endorsement just might be a serious horse. In that maiden victory, Endorsement ran the fourth quarter-mile in 24.70, and he seemed – I say “seemed” because I didn’t see it, and times can be deceptive -- to be training very sharply.

But the complexity of a horse race can’t be reduced to a number, or a series of numbers or a clocking. Yes, Endorsement should remind everyone of just how beautifully dynamic this sport can be and of how these 3-year-olds can take giant steps forward. Endorsement just took one. His trainer, Shannon Ritter, explained that the colt had been improving dramatically and that his most recent workout – a bullet 59.80 at Fair Grounds on March 22 – was “amazing.”

Endorsement indeed has the pedigree of a good horse: He’s by Distorted Humor out of the A.P. Indy mare Charmed Gift. And now, to go along with it, he has displayed the talent. Conveyance’s trainer, Bob Baffert, said after the Sunland Derby that a new star had emerged. And Baffert could very well be right about that. Endorsement could be this year’s late-developing star, this year’s Summer Bird.

The other significant Triple Crown prep over the weekend, the Louisiana Derby, was just as contentious as expected, with four horses finishing so closely that you could have thrown a tablecloth over them. Well, a very large tablecloth. All four gave admirable, but hardly sparkling, performances, and all four could move forward. (And, no, I can’t regard the Lane’s End as a significant preparatory race for the Triple Crown. Even if the winner does have the earnings to get into the Derby, he’s a turf horse.)

Mission Impazible, another lightly raced colt who’s getting better at the best possible moment, sat behind the early leaders through modest early fractions (47.89), swung out at the top of the stretch and then got up in the final sixteenth in a display of determined volition.  His final time for the nine furlongs (1:50.32) was about a full second slower than Battle Plan’s in the New Orleans Handicap (1:49.33). Mission Impazible may not be one of the most talented 3-year-olds, but he’s one of the toughest.

A Little Warm, stretching out from seven to nine furlongs, finished second in another outstanding effort that nevertheless suggested he’d be best served by not running in the Kentucky Derby. Drosselmeyer ran very well to be third. He advanced inside, just behind Mission Impazible, in the second turn. When the eventual winner swung to the outside, Drosselmeyer waited inside for an opening. That interrupted his momentum. Had he been able to get through when he was rolling, he probably would have been there at the wire, right alongside Mission Impazible.

Kent Desormeaux did a superb job saving ground with Drosselmeyer in the first turn after leaving the gate from No. 13, and the jockey thought they should have won the race. Maybe, but only maybe. Even when the inside opened up for him, Drosselmeyer didn’t finish as strongly as the winner. If Drosselmeyer needs a perfect trip to win and if he isn't athletic enough to overcome trouble, he won't win many derbies. Discreetly Mine ran well to finish fourth, but he appears to be one of those talented horses whose talent probably won’t extend to 1 1/4 miles.  

And so as they approach their final preps, Eskendereya and Lookin At Lucky continue to lead the way on the road to the Triple Crown, but the journey becomes more interesting each week.

1. Eskendereya – He can confirm his status as the Derby favorite with a victory in the Wood Memorial.
2. Lookin At Lucky – He’ll return to Santa Anita’s synthetic surface Saturday for his final prep.
3. Dublin – He has continued to train sharply in preparation for the Arkansas Derby.
4. Noble’s Promise – He made an auspicious return in the Rebel and will try to rediscover the winner’s circle in the Arkansas Derby.
5. Endorsement – His jaw-dropping effort in the Sunland Derby announced his arrival.
6. Ice Box – Like Endorsement, the Florida Derby winner is improving at the right time.
7. Rule – His Florida Derby effort was better than it might at first seem, and he’ll return to a one-mile oval in Kentucky.
8. Schoolyard Dreams – He could be the next lightly raced colt to take a step forward.
9. Awesome Act – He didn’t go to the track for a week following his Gotham victory; the Wood is next. 
10. Conveyance – His distance limitations became evident in the Sunland Derby.

Also eligible: Sidney’s Candy, Caracortado, Odysseus, Interactif, Super Saver, Mission Impazible, Jackson Bend, Aikenite, Pleasant Prince, Dave In Dixie, Backtalk, Drosselmeyer, Discreetly Mine, D’Funnybone, A Little Warm, Stay Put.

Previewing the preps: The Sunland Derby

Nobody realized at the time just how important it would be, just how “key,” to borrow a page – or was it a chapter -- from Steve Davidowitz. But out of last year’s Sunland Derby came four horses who would win in their next outing a stakes race: Advice, Mythical Power, Valid Stripes and, of course, Mine That Bird.

Could Sunday’s renewal of the Sunland Derby be as productive? Well, that’s asking a lot, but the race could produce, and probably will, at least one Kentucky Derby starter. Conveyance, the 9-5 favorite in the morning line for the Sunland Derby, has won all four of his starts, and he certainly appears to be a horse of quality.

Around the first of the year, when I spoke to Bob Baffert about his 3-year-olds, the Hall of Fame trainer described Conveyance as an extremely fast colt who would insist on having the lead and would challenge others to catch him. That, evident even then, was going to be his style, self-assertive and bold. The only question about Conveyance, Baffert said, was how far that style would take him.

That’s still the question, although Conveyance has proven with victories in the San Felipe and the Southwest that his speed and talent will take him at least a mile successfully. Sunday, when he tries to add another furlong to that, I suspect his success will continue and he’ll go to Kentucky unbeaten.

In the Southwest, from his No. 9 post position, Conveyance shot out of the gate to grab an advantage and led the field through an opening half-mile in 46.25 seconds and three-quarters in 1:10.67, with some good horses, such as Dryfly and Mission Impazible, pushing him. The Oaklawn Park surface was rather kind to front-runners that day; still, after such fractions only a very good horse could have won. And Conveyance won by nearly a length over Dublin, completing the mile in 1:36.94.

The essential question remains, however. In the Southwest, Conveyance ran the final quarter-mile in 26.27, which left him vulnerable that day and suggests the energy tank was approaching empty. But only approaching it. He actually ran the final furlong (in 13.04) a little faster than the previous.

Conveyance is by Indian Charlie, whose influence as a sire has largely been to confer speed. But Indian Charlie also possessed a healthy measure of stamina. He won the Santa Anita Derby at nine furlongs, defeating Real Quiet, and then finished third as the favorite in Kentucky.

For Sunday’s race, the essential question isn’t just how far Conveyance’s speed will take him, but who can challenge him early. Probably nobody. Tempted To Tapit, the second choice in the morning line at 3-1, comes out of the slow-paced Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. Only once in his career, in his maiden win in the Aqueduct mud, has he flashed the kind of speed that would suggest he might challenge Conveyance early.

Nacho Friend also has some natural speed. Returning from a seven-month layoff, he raced near the hot Gotham pace before settling for third. It was an encouraging effort, for he was the only horse close to the pace who was also close at the wire. Wow Wow Wow, Peppi Knows, and Three Day Rush all faded into the ruck.

But Nacho Friend was very fresh for the Gotham and probably won’t flash as much speed Sunday, which should leave Conveyance cruising comfortably on the early lead, with Nacho Friend stalking. And Conveyance, it should probably be pointed out, has had three stamina-building workouts since the Southwest.

The question about Nacho Friend, who’s returning in three weeks, is whether he’ll move forward or regress. Some handicappers will argue that Nacho Friend will “bounce,” meaning regress. And maybe he will, but it would be a mistake to assume so. Handicappers use jargon to suggest their knowledge is esoteric and, very often, to disguise the fact that they know little about racehorses.

And “bounce” is just jargon to describe a situation that’s obvious in every sport, specifically the difficulty of duplicating an outstanding effort. Big efforts tend to sap energy and strength, especially if given after a layoff. But isn’t that obvious? Only one pitcher ever threw back-to-back no-hitters. Not even the greatest basketball players score 50 points in back-to-back games.

But was Nacho Friend’s Gotham a 50-point game? Not really. It was the best effort of his career, but that was expected. He’s a 3-year-old now, much bigger and stronger than when he finished fourth in the Sanford last July. Three-year-olds often give career-best performances this time of year. And if Nacho Friend is a top 3-year-old, as his trainer, Kelly Breen, thinks the colt might be, then that Gotham effort was just the sort of performance such a colt would give in his first start of the year, and it would be the kind of effort he can build on.

Did it leave Nacho Friend so drained he can’t repeat it three weeks later? Maybe. But it would be a mistake to assume so; he could have been galloping 1 1/2 miles every day for two months before he had has first workout of the year.

Nacho Friend arrived March 14 at Sunland to begin preparations for Sunday’s race. And Breen said he thinks the colt will move forward. If Nacho Friend just duplicates his Gotham, he should finish second.

Long shot possibilities: In his seasonal debut, Classical Slew finished third in the San Vicente. A horse’s performances on synthetic surfaces aren’t very predictive of dirt success. But Classical Slew performed well at Hollywood, Del Mar and Santa Anita while running in quality company. He’s stretching out from seven to nine furlongs, a big step, but he’s eligible to improve.

Storming Saint rallied to win (via disqualification) the Borderland Derby, Sunland’s local prep for its big race, on a day when few horses were able to rally successfully. He has won both his races around two turns and seems to be improving.

Selections: Conveyance, Nacho Friend, Storming Saint, Classical Slew. 

Previewing the preps: The Louisiana Derby

With its $750,000 jackpot and its new place on the calendar, five weeks out from the roseate run, Saturday’s Louisiana Derby was expected to attract an outstanding field. But, as it turns out, only three horses among the 13 entered are stakes winners, and only one of those has won a stakes adorned with a Roman numeral.

But that’s par for the modern course, where there are so many lucrative Triple Crown prep races that a field deep in talent has become increasingly unusual. Why would Conveyance be in New Orleans when he can run for a little more money ($800,000) against a weaker field closer to home, at Sunland Park? And if six weeks were too much and four weeks too little, then this five-week, LaDerby span would be perfect, right? Well, yes, except that the races in the final round of Triple Crown preps for the top prospects are expected to have that little eye-catching Roman numeral that some people inexplicably respect beyond everything else.

Still, the field for the Grade II Louisiana Derby is arguably better and deeper than the one that convened for the Grade I Florida Derby last week. Most of all, though, Saturday’s Louisiana Derby is an outstandingly competitive race, and for those who invest in the short-term futures market, it’s preeminently attractive.

It’s a race that’s rife with questions and uncertainty, just the sort of situation that can lead to a headache or a handsome payoff. Four horses in the field will try stakes company for the first time. The Program, an interloper from Bob Baffert’s California cohort, will make his dirt debut. Most of these 13 horses, Fly Down and Drosselmeyer being the exceptions, will try nine furlongs for the first time. And A Little Warm, a stakes winner sprinting, will race around two turns for the first time. How will they all respond to these unfamiliar situations? And so it goes, questions colliding with questions, like bumper cars.

It’s not the sort of situation that urges a bettor to embrace the favorite and smack a kiss of a bet on his cheek. In the case of LaDerby, that’s Discreetly Mine, the Risen Star winner who’s 7-2 in the morning line. The most accomplished horse in the field and the only one who has performed well and often at the highest levels, he’s clearly the one to beat. Last year he finished second in Belmont’s Futurity and Champagne Stakes. Before traveling to New Orleans, he ran fourth at Gulfstream, after considerable trouble, in the Spectacular Bid Stakes. Yes, he’s a horse of quality. But when he won the Risen Star Stakes, he was allowed, even invited, to steal away with an opening half-mile in 48.75 seconds. Pricking his ears, he was as comfortable as an old man in a rocker. And from that point on, the race was virtually over. Hand a horse of quality an easy lead in slow fractions and you’ve handed him the victory.

Granted, Discreetly Mine had the talent to accept the gift graciously. After leading through three-quarters in 1:13.44, he ran the next quarter-mile in 24.74 and opened up a clear advantage in the stretch. Still, the pace Saturday shouldn’t be anything like the Risen Star crawl, which means the LaDerby should be a very different sort of race.

Discreetly Mine has won twice in his career, and for both he led throughout. That certainly isn’t meant to suggest Discreetly Mine can’t win Saturday or that he must have the early lead to win, for he is, after all, a young horse who’s still learning. And his trainer, Todd Pletcher, said he thinks the Mineshaft colt could be even better without the early lead. Pletcher said he thought Discreetly Mine was looking around in the Risen Star and will be more focused if he has a target. And that’s quite possible, but it’s not a possibility I care to invest in at short odds.

As long as he isn’t sent dashing away from the gate and asked for his speed immediately, at least three horses in the field are fast enough to be in front of Discreetly Mine early – Mission Impazible, A Little Warm and Wow Wow Wow. In his most recent outing, Mission Impazible finished fourth, 4 1/4 lengths behind Conveyance, in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. That was Mission Impazible’s stakes debut, and he gave a deceptively good effort.
 
Breaking from post position No. 10, Mission Impazible raced four-wide in the first turn and three-wide in the second; still, he never capitulated. Although beaten, he continued to
run hard down the lane, his belly down and his ears back. But this may be the most important aspect of that Southwest: The pace was hot. Conveyance led through an opening half-mile in 46.25. The pace, in other words, when adjusted for the surfaces, was about 11 lengths faster than the Risen Star pace. And Mission Impazible raced four-wide.

From post position No. 2, he could have the early lead Saturday at Fair Grounds. He could even be clear, depending on Wow Wow Wow and A Little Warm. With an outside post position, Wow Wow Wow has to use some of his speed to avoid a wide trip in the first turn. When faced with the same situation at Aqueduct, Wow Wow Wow sprinted to grab the early advantage, threw down some lively fractions to set the Gotham up for Awesome Act, and then just as quickly faded to eighth. He faded so fast he probably didn’t even hear Awesome Act’s “thank you.” And so will John Jacinto, who’s back aboard Wow Wow Wow at Fair Grounds, employ the same unsuccessful strategy, or will he be more prudent and just try to avoid a wide trip?

And what about A Little Warm? After winning the Spectacular Bid, where Discreetly Mine finished 6 1/2 lengths back, A Little Warm confirmed his talent by running second in the Hutcheson. He’s obviously a very capable sprinter, and based on the half-mile split in the Hutcheson (45.10), A Little Warm clearly has sufficient natural speed to sprint to an early lead Saturday. At the very least, he could race alongside Mission Impazible. But A Little Warm seems to be a better horse when he’s covered – that is, when he’s placed behind other horses and forced by the cover to rate.

That’s what Jeremy Rose did in the Spectacular Bid and that’s what he did in the Hutcheson, take the colt back and put him behind horses. And in the turn at Gulfstream, when Rose moved him outside, A Little Warm took off. In the Hutcheson, he never caught D’Funnybone, who completed the seven furlongs in 1:22.14, but A Little Warm finished only a length back after racing four-to-six wide in the turn. He ran the final three furlongs in about 37 seconds, which was quite solid, but he didn’t gallop out beyond the wire with much enthusiasm. It was a hard race, and he looked spent.

Will Rose be able to get A Little Warm covered in a nine-furlong race, behind a slower pace? And if so, will the son of Stormin Fever finish with the same kind of energy he had in his sprints? A Little Warm looks like a sprinter, but could he really be a nine-furlong horse in costume? And if Rose can’t get him back behind horses, will A Little Warm take off to grab the lead, and then will the pace heat up and heat up some more, to become more than a little warm, much more, more like a pot forgotten on the stovetop? A Little Warm has the talent to win this Louisiana Derby, and he just might get the trip, but he’s the second-choice in the morning line at 4-1, and all those questions poke at my head as if it’s a Halloween pumpkin.

And if the pace becomes stovetop hot, who then could win? Drosselmeyer, who’s 5-1, was compromised by the pace in the Risen Star, where he ran fourth, and he’ll benefit from a faster pace Saturday. But he has drawn post position No. 13, and he doesn’t appear to be the sort of horse who can overcome such a disadvantage. Fly Down, however, would become an intriguing candidate.

In his most recent outing, an allowance victory at Gulfstream, he narrowly defeated First Dude, who just finished fifth, a little more than six lengths behind Ice Box, in the Florida Derby. In that allowance race last month, Fly Down rallied from last with a bold move to approach the leaders at the top of the stretch, but then he seemed to stall. He didn’t switch leads (from leading each stride with his left foreleg to leading with his right) until he reached the sixteenth pole (ideally he would have switched at the top of the stretch), and only then did he gradually get to and then by First Dude.

Fly Down ran the Gulfstream turn well, but will he do the same on the tighter Fair Grounds oval? And the horse that finished third behind him at Gulfstream, Thunder Perfect, about a length and half back, has a one-for-seven record that hardly inspires confidence. Still, Fly Down has raced only three times. He’s a long, handsome colt who just now appears to be developing the strength and grace to take advantage of his tools. He’ll need to improve about three lengths to have a chance in the Louisiana Derby. But his trainer, Nick Zito, has him moving in the right direction, and so can Fly Down improve enough to win Saturday? Yes, it’s quite possible.

Long shot possibilities: Stay Put and Ron The Greek finished strongly in the Risen Star to get close, and they, too, should benefit from a faster pace Saturday, as well as the added distance. Although they’re both closers, they’re not the same horse. Stay Put runs the turns well. In fact, he ran the second turn extremely well in the Risen Star despite forced to swing four-wide, and then he continued his advance in the stretch to finish fifth, less than three lengths back. He ran the fourth quarter-mile in 24.23 seconds and might have been even closer if he hadn’t ducked in momentarily during the run down the lane.

Ron The Greek, however, does most of his running on the straightaway. Neither as wide nor as strong as Stay Put in the second turn of the Risen Star, Ron The Greek popped down the Fair Grounds stretch like an errant champagne cork. If because of an overheated pace the Louisiana Derby falls apart, as the LeComte Stakes did early in the season, then Ron The Greek could upset.   

Ok, I’ve named every horse I think can win, including the complete mystery known as The Program and the unfortunately drawn Drosselmeyer – it’s that kind of race. But for selections, I have to go with the three horses who represent, I think, the best investment potential, followed by the horse to beat.

Selections: Mission Impazible, Stay Put, Fly Down, Discreetly Mine.

Results for the first selection in 10 Previewing the Preps: Four wins, no seconds, four thirds.

The Pletcher procession moves closer to Kentucky

Todd Pletcher has kept them all moving forward, not on the same paths and not at the same speed, but all in the same direction, with the same destination in mind, the Kentucky Derby. Eskendereya, Rule, Super Saver, Interactif, Discreetly Mine – that’s quite a cohort of talent Pletcher trains, an impressive procession that’s moving in the general direction of Churchill Downs.

After his third-place finish in the Florida Derby, Rule has completed his preparatory work. Eskendereyha will soon travel to New York for the Wood Memorial. And Interactif already has taken up residence at Churchill Downs. He’ll probably make his next start, Pletcher said this morning, April 10 at Keeneland in the Blue Grass.

Although he won his debut on dirt, Interactif has had most of his success on turf, and he finished second over Santa Anita’s synthetic surface in the recent San Felipe. And so how he trains at Churchill will be “even more important than how he runs” at Keeneland in determining whether he goes on to the Kentucky Derby, Pletcher said. That’s why Interactif has gone to Churchill early.

After Super Saver’s next workout, Pletcher and the owners, WinStar, will decide whether the colt will next race on April 3 or April 10. The options, Pletcher said, are the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Super Saver, of course, finished third while making his seasonal debut in the Tampa Bay Derby, but last year he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill. And, of course, Discreetly Mine is the 7-2 morning-line favorite for Saturday’s Louisiana Derby in New Orleans, where, Pletcher said, the colt could run even better if he has a target. Discreetly Mine led throughout to win the Risen Star at Fair Grounds.

Leading the way on the Road to the Triple Crown: The Two Standouts and The Ice Box

Nobody who raced Saturday at Gulfstream Park is going to win the Kentucky Derby. That isn’t meant to be an insult, just an observation, expressed as a prediction, and having given it a moment’s thought, I shouldn’t confine it to Florida’s borders: Nobody who raced anywhere Saturday is going to win the Kentucky Derby.

More and more, it’s looking as if there are two outstanding 3-year-olds out there: Eskendereya and Lookin At Lucky. Yes, Dublin could yet join them; the big boy’s still learning. And some others are very good. But Conveyance and Noble’s Promise will probably fall farther behind as the distances stretch out. Ice Box, the Florida Derby winner, keeps coming, but he has far to go, as do Schoolyard Dreams and Odysseus. Sidney’s Candy continues to win races in some virtual reality, where horses lope along for three-quarters of a mile and then sprint to the wire, and if that sounds like turf racing, well, just look at the last two Breeders’ Cups.

As for D’Funnybone, the Swale winner, he’s terrific, and so are his connections for not trying to make the Kentucky Derby. I suspect their prudence will pay dividends down the road.

But to return to the Florida Derby, more than anything it demonstrated just how good Eskendereya is. When he won the Fountain of Youth by many, Ice Box and Pleasant Prince weren’t even close. Pleasant Prince finished 10 lengths back, and Ice Box, who raced very wide, checked in 12 back. But they were one-two today at Gulfstream. I don’t like wasting ink and time stating the obvious, but sometimes, much to my surprise, I learn that the obvious often gets overlooked or neglected, like an efficient lineman or a virtuous librarian, and so out of sympathy for the obvious, the efficient linemen and the virtuous librarians, I’ll waste just a moment of our time, as well as a little bit of cyberink, to say Eskendereya would have romped in the Florida Derby. Romped. Eskendereya and this field at Gulfstream would have been like Manny Pacquiao and Joshua Clottey at Cowboys Stadium, LBJ and Goldwater at election time or Lee and Burnside at Fredericksburg.

Having said that, I’ll have to struggle for a moment with respect and courtesty over whether to point out that Ahmed Zayat, Eskendereya’s owner, was foolish to pass up the Florida Derby for the Wood. OK, the moment has passed, and having won the struggle, I’ll just go ahead and say it: Zayat was foolish.   

Which reminds me of the ride John Velazquez gave Rule. For several reasons, I don’t like to criticize jockeys: First, my father was a jockey and so I’d like to think I understand better than most the demands and difficulties of the job, which both urge against quick and obvious assessments; second, it’s far easier to ride a horse while sitting comfortably in the press box than it is while balancing on the animal’s back; third, show me a guy screaming about a bad ride and I’ll show you a loser. But having said all that, I doubt that Velazquez will include a tape of this race with his resume.

Rule went eyeball-to-eyeball with Pulsion through a half-mile in 46.46 seconds. Compare that with the opening half of the Bonnie Miss (47.28) or Rampart (47.73), and it’s clear that the pace of the Florida Derby was very demanding. This was the perfect opportunity to teach Rule, who had won four straight by leading throughout, to settle back, a little off the pace, in a stalking position. But that opportunity was lost – and with it, I suspect, any chance to win the Kentucky Derby – when Velazquez and Rule went beat-you-to-the-quarter-pole with Pulsion, not just through an opening half but through six furlongs in 1:10.76. Was beating Pulsion the objective?

If so, that was accomplished when Rule opened up a two-length advantage in mid-stretch. Radiohead and his quarter-crack faded, Pulsion faded, Game On Dude faded, and Ice Box shifted into a gear that few horses have. Yes, he was impressive. Rallying from last while wide in the second turn, he ran the final three-eighths of a mile in 36.53.

But Ice Box’s final time of 1:49.19 on a day when the track was very fast didn’t dazzle. Devil May Care won the Bonnie Miss in 1:49.06, and she was looking around for competition the final furlong. (Blind Luck and Tidal Pool will have much to say about it, and Ailalea could yet make a statement, but Devil May Care should be very tough in the Kentucky Oaks.) And Unrivaled Belle won the Rampart in 1:49.36. For those who depend on speed figures, Ice Box, by my measure, earned a 97-98, depending on whether I’m in a mood to round up or down. That gives Devil May Care a 99 and Unrivaled Belle a 95-96.

But those are just my numbers and, frankly, I agree with Bob Baffert, who once said about speed figures, “They’re for people who don’t know how to watch races.” But the numbers – mine, yours, everybody’s – as well as the empirical evidence, the tea leaves, the karma and the Eleusinian Mysteries all agree that Eskendereya and Lookin At Lucky lead the way on the road to the Triple Crown.

1. Eskendereya – Even without his running in it, the Florida Derby made him look good; and so now he’ll run in the Wood and Zayat will hope he didn’t make a terrible mistake that will cost him the Derby.

2. Lookin At Lucky – He overcame trouble and beat a good field to win the Rebel in his seasonal debut. He could return in the Wood or the Arkansas Derby.

3. Dublin – He raced wide to be third in the Rebel in a deceptively good effort; he'll make his next start in the Arkansas Derby.

4. Conveyance – He keeps winning, and the Sunland Derby is next, but will that get him ready for Churchill Downs?

5. Noble’s Promise – He gave an outstanding performance in the Rebel, but his pedigree insists he’s approaching the far reaches of his distance capability.

6. Ice Box – His big effort at Gulfstream suggests he’s the sort of a horse that just keeps charging and could make some noise in the Triple Crown.

7.  Rule – Despite his loss, he ran well to be third in the Florida Derby, given the pace. The athletic colt's only losses have been on ovals greater than a mile; he's unbeaten on smaller tracks. But he obviously has to improve if he’s to threaten at Churchill Downs.

8. Schoolyard Dreams – He may have been best at Tampa Bay, and he could take another step forward in the Illinois Derby.

9. Awesome Act – He scored a knockout in his seasonal debut, but can he follow that with another top effort in the Wood?

10. Sidney’s Candy – He won’t be able to lope along on the lead in Kentucky, but he could be sweet in the Santa Anita Derby.

Also eligible: Caracortado, Odysseus, Discreetly Mine, Interactif, Super Saver, Jackson Bend, Aikenite, Pleasant Prince, Mendip, Dave In Dixie, Stay Put, D’Funnybone, Backtalk, Tiz Chrome, American Lion, Tempted To Tapit, Drosselmeyer.

Previewing the preps: The Swale

The Swale Stakes probably won't serve as preparation for the Kentucky Derby, but it could produce a Preakness contender. And at the very least, the horses who successfully exit the Swale will have proven their quality; only a good horse, a very good horse, will be able to get into the Gulfstream Park winner’s circle after the Swale.

The race has attracted some proven performers, such as D’ Funnybone, the winner last year of the Saratoga Special and Belmont’s Futurity and, this year, in his seasonal debut, the Hutcheson; Dixie Band, the winner of the Arlington-Washington Futurity; and Ibboyee, the three-time stakes winner in New York-bred company who rallied to be third in the Hutcheson.

The Swale has attracted an intriguing upstart, Gary D, as well as a California invader who can’t spell, Privilaged. City Trooper nearly fell on his face leaving the gate in the Hutcheson, Silver Craft turns back after a solid effort in the Sam F. Davis and Fearless Cowboy makes his seasonal debut. It’s an interesting race, even with a 6-5 favorite who stands out.

And, yes, D’Funnybone stands out. He stalked while four-wide in the Hutcheson, pulling jockey Edgar Prado towards the leaders, and then ran the final three-eighths of a mile in about 37 seconds to draw clear. It was an outstanding effort off the shelf, and he could reasonably be expected to step forward Saturday. He has a favorable draw, No. 7, and he should enjoy his preferred stalking trip.

Stalking whom, though? Well, Fearless Cowboy is fresh and could assume the pacesetter’s role. Or maybe Gary D. He’s a lightly raced but intriguing colt. In his maiden win at Tampa Bay, he dueled through an opening half-mile in 45.68 and then drew away to win easily by more than six lengths. That opening split was the fastest of the day there. Even the multiple stakes winner Sneaking Uponyou was slower, going 45.83 on her way to a front-running victory in a minor stakes event. And Gary D followed with another victory in Ocala. He may not be good enough to upset D’Funnybone, but he’s a fast member of the cast who could share in the rewards. And at 12-1 in the morning line, he’s especially intriguing.

A two-time stakes winner on Arlington’s synthetic surface last year, Dixie Band appears to be training well for his dirt and seasonal debut. His victories last year were less than dazzling, and they weren’t fast; that’s not unusual over a synthetic surface. But he defeated Piscatelli, Hockley, U Appeal To Me and Turf Melody, and that recommends him.

Long shot possibility: Making his first start of the year, Hear Ye Hear Ye finished fourth in the Hutcheson, and it was an encouraging fourth. He pressed the pace while three-wide and drifted out in the stretch while tiring, but he never capitulated and was beaten only three lengths. He finished a length behind Ibboyee, who after a bumpy start had a perfect trip getting through on the rail. Ibboyee is the 4-1 second choice in the morning line, and I’ll be surprised if he beats Hear Ye Hear Ye, who draws inside and should be prominent from the start. And, oh yes, he’s 15-1 in the morning line.

Selections: D’Funnybone, Hear Ye Hear Ye, Dixie Band, Gary D.

Previewing the preps: The Florida Derby

Everybody, it seems, wants to run in the Florida Derby -- everybody, that is, except Ahmed Zayat, who announced Tuesday afternoon that his Eskendereya, the romping winner of the Fountain of Youth, would race instead on April 3 in the Wood at Aqueduct. But, of course, Eskendereya’s absence is why – or at least it’s a contributing reason – everybody wants to run Saturday.

And for some in the field of 11, jumping into the Florida Derby appears to be a very ambitious plunge. Miner’s Reserve and Game On Dude, for example, are coming off maiden wins. Lentenor, Barbaro’s brother who has won only once in his career, will be making his dirt debut. Soaring Empire will stretch out from seven to nine furlongs. Pleasant Prince could do no better than fourth, a distant fourth, after a perfect trip in the Fountain of Youth. And yet they’re all here, in a Grade I with a $750,000 jackpot.

No, without Eskendereya, it’s not a particularly strong field. But without Eskendereya, it could be the perfect place, the ideal test, for Rule, who’s also trained by Todd Pletcher. Rule had been expected to be the one going to New York for the Wood.

But he’ll remain at Gulfstream, and for good reason. With his stablemate staying in the barn, Rule is the one to beat. Rule has won four consecutive races, including the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay, where he not only showed speed but also determination and endurance. Rule led from the start, through an opening half-mile in 47.72 seconds over an officially fast track that was actually rather dull, and when challenged, he ran a fourth quarter-mile in 24.89 to pull clear, winning by three lengths over Schoolyard Dreams, who, of course, returned to finish second by a nose in the Tampa Bay Derby.

During this pearly string of victories, Rule has led throughout. He already has shown he’s capable of tossing down lively fractions and then going on, but he also appears to be tractable. That’s just an impression, however, based on watching all his races: He doesn’t seem to be a headstrong sort, one of those combustible packages that regard everything and everybody as a spark, but he’s so naturally quick he generally and simply finds himself on the lead. And once there, he doesn’t surrender. The Florida Derby could become the ideal prep for Rule because he’ll feel some intense pace pressure. And it just might challenge that tractability. In other words, it should be a challenge for him, and if he’s in the winner’s circle Saturday, as I expect him to be, he’s a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender.

Miner’s Reserve and Radiohead both showed good speed in their recent victories, both on Feb. 27, and with their outside post positions they’ll have to use some of that speed to avoid a wide trip around the first turn Saturday. Miner’s Reserve took the lead after a half-mile in his maiden score and finished strongly to complete a swift mile in 1:35.87. He looks like a runner; still, this will be only his third start and his first around two turns.

Radiohead, a stakes winner in England last year who came here for the Breeders' Cup and has stayed, actually left the gate so alertly he immediately put himself in front in his seasonal debut; but jockey Edgar Prado soon got the handsome chestnut to settle comfortably into a stalking position. Encouraged by five or six smacks of Prado’s stick, Radiohead ran the final quarter-mile in a jaw-dropping 23.80 seconds to win comfortably, completing the mile in 1:35.90.

As he did with Barbaro, behind Sharp Humor, in 2006, from the No. 10 post position, Prado will probably try to secure a good stalking position Saturday with Radiohead, who'll start from No. 11. But will Miner’s Reserve, who has more natural speed and less experience, shoot to the lead, or will Kent Desormeaux also try to stalk, leaving the early advantage to Rule or somebody else?

That somebody could be Game On Dude. He broke in the air, rushed up quickly to reach contention, less than two lengths off a 46.86 half-mile, and ran the final quarter in 25.35 to score his maiden victory in 1:36.73, also on Feb. 27. Game On Dude may have sufficient speed to grab the early advantage here, and that could make this Florida Derby very interesting, as well as a terrific classroom for Rule. The situation could also seriously compromise Miner’s Reserve and force Radiohead three or even four wide in the first turn.

Long shot possibilities: Radiohead has had only two slow half-mile works since his win, and one of those was on the turf, all of which makes me wonder if something's going on with the horse, something that's not encouraging. It's enough for investors in the short-term futures market to take a look at some long shot possibilities. Game On Dude, if allowed the lead, could hang on to complete a multi-horse investment. Ice Box raced wide in the Fountain of Youth before finishing fifth. If the pace heats up here, he could trundle home and get a rewarding share of the pot. Soaring Empire is another who has shown ability to rally.

Selections: Rule, Radiohead, Game On Dude, Ice Box.

Results for the top selection after eight Triple Crown preps: three wins, no seconds, three thirds. 

Why isn't Rachel Alexandra going to Oaklawn?

The decision stunned: Rachel Alexandra won’t go to Oaklawn Park for the Apple Blossom and a meeting with Zenyatta. Not even for a $5 million purse.

And so lacking any sense, the decision invites considerable speculation. Is Jess Jackson avoiding Zenyatta? Is something wrong with Rachel Alexandra? What’s the real reason she isn’t going to Oaklawn Park?

At the very least, Rachel Alexandra’s principal owner made the decision hastily, in a moment prolonged by frustration and intensified by disappointment. The reigning Horse of the Year seemed fine the morning after losing her seasonal debut by less than a length to Zardana. And even though she lost, Rachel Alexandra ran well. The performance didn’t approach her bravura of last fall, but it approximated her first two efforts of 2009, in the Martha Washington and Fair Grounds Oaks. Yes, she ran well.

Very few horses could have performed so well returning from a six-month layoff. The effort, in fact, could have been an ideal start, a solid foundation, for an outstanding season. Kelso was named Horse of the Year five consecutive years, 1960-1964, and four times he began the following year’s campaign with a loss. In fact, he ran as well as third in only one of those losses.

And so prudence would have argued, and not in a whisper but with stentorian tones, that Rachel Alexandra should go to Oaklawn Park to prepare for the Apple Blossom. Train there, work there and then decide. Jackson, however, decided quickly. But why, if there was no injury, no negative effects, no real reason to think Rachel Alexandra wouldn’t progress in the coming weeks? No, Rachel Alexandra’s loss was no reason to veto, like a spoiled child putting an end to the game by taking back his ball, the most anticipated race in decades.

It’s usually arrogant and presumptuous for somebody in the media to tell a trainer or an owner where he should run his horse, especially, as often happens, a media representative whose knowledge of horses and racing couldn’t fill a teacup or who rarely has been to the track before lunchtime. And only those people closest to Rachel Alexandra, not the media and not the fans, should decide whether she runs in the Apple Blossom. But why decide now?

Jackson’s quick decision may seem uncharacteristic. Remember last year, when Jackson seemingly agonized over his decisions about where Rachel Alexandra would run, whether it was the Mother Goose, the Haskell or the Woodward. Always the attorney, Jackson didn’t want to commit himself or his horse to any obligation they might not be able to fulfill, never mind that fans and horsemen understand that in this game everything is tentative until the latches of the starting gate spring open.

On the other hand, maybe this decision wasn’t altogether uncharacteristic. Maybe it was typical. Although slow to decide where she would run last year, Jackson quickly decided where the great filly wasn’t running. Even before the end of summer, Jackson clearly articulated his position that Rachel Alexandra wasn’t going to participate in the Breeders’ Cup.

That decision seemed reasonable, given the dismal showing dirt horses had made over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface. But to that decision there probably was also a powerful emotional component. Curlin, after all, had lost over Pro-Ride. And to this decision not to run Rachel Alexandra in the Apple Blossom, there’s also, I suspect, a powerful emotional component.

If Rachel Alexandra had won Saturday, she’d be in Hot Springs, Ark., by now. And John Shirreffs, the trainer who sent Zardana to New Orleans, for whatever motive, is the same person who’ll send Zenyatta to Oaklawn Park. But because Zardana upset Rachel Alexandra, Shirreffs will no longer be aiming at a $5 million jackpot.

No Apple Blossom for Rachel

NEW ORLEANS -- Rachel Alexandra won’t run April 9 in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park, her trainer, Steve Asmussen, said moments ago.

“She’s clearly not up to her previous level,” Asmussen said, referring to the reigning Horse of the Year’s loss here Saturday in the $200,000 New Orleans Ladies Stakes at Fair Grounds. Rachel Alexandra finished second, three-quarters of a length behind Zardana. It was Rachel Alexandra’s first loss since November of 2008.

Oaklawn Park had raised the purse of the Apple Blossom to $5 million, contingent, of course, on the participation of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, the unbeaten winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Zenyatta also returned to competition Saturday, winning the Santa Margarita Handicap at Santa Anita. Asmussen discussed the Apple Blossom plans with the Horse of the Year’s principal owner, Jess Jackson, before announcing that a trip to Hot Springs, Ark., was not in Rachel Alexandra’s immediate future.

“We’re going to regroup and come back again,” Asmussen said. “The disappointment from yesterday continues.”

Despite the loss, Rachel Alexandra came out of Saturday’s race with no negative effects. She ate up Saturday night and rested comfortably. She walked the shedrow calmly this morning, Asmussen said, and seemed very relaxed.