Horse racing

And the big guy smiles

Super Saver could soon be there, at Oaklawn Park, and maybe Noble’s Promise, the two prominent Triple Crown candidates traveling to Hot Springs, Ark., to make their seasonal debuts. Uh Oh Bango, the swift Arizona-bred who never has finished worse than second and who could be better than you think, also has the Rebel Stakes on his dance card. Even the champ, Lookin At Lucky, is a possibility for the race.

And the big guy in the cowboy hat who’s waiting there to greet them just smiles. Bring ‘em on.

D. Wayne Lukas is looking forward to their coming, not that he’s planning an ambush for March 13. That’s not his style; he doesn't skulk. And anybody going to Oaklawn has to know who’s waiting for them. But Lukas’ confidence in Dublin, already lofty, has soared even higher since the Southwest Stakes. And Dublin isn’t the only reason for Lukas’ beaming. He has at least two more in his barn who’ll be aimed at Triple Crown preps, along with two fillies of Oaks quality.

“He had a great day today,” Lukas said this morning about Dublin. “He came out of the Southwest more focused. . . . He’s a very special horse.”

To return for a moment to last week’s Southwest, where Dublin’s effort looks better and better with each review: Much already has been said about the trouble he had, leaving the gate slowly and then stumbling and then rallying wide and then closing strongly to finish second, less than a length behind the winner, Conveyance. But the most impressive aspect of Dublin’s performance has to be the duration of his drive.

Most horses can sustain a drive for about a quarter-mile. Good horses can sustain a drive for about three-eighths of a mile. Jockey Terry Thompson put Dublin in a drive before reaching the half-mile pole. And Dublin sustained his drive around the turn and through the stretch all the way to the wire.

“You just don’t see horses do that,” Lukas said, “especially in February of their 3-year-old year.”

Dublin ran the final half-mile in 47.94 seconds. Comparisons are very difficult, but Eskendereya ran an internal half in 48.42 (from the five-furlong marker to mid-stretch) in the Fountain of Youth. Granted, circumstances differed. Dublin was chasing the leaders while Eskendereya felt no pressure down the lane at Gulfstream. The Oaklawn surface was slower than Gulfstream’s, and Dublin raced wide. And Eskendereya ran more than four lengths faster than Dublin for the opening half-mile. But the point is this: With the Southwest behind him, Lukas has good reason to think Dublin can beat anything that comes to Oaklawn for the Rebel, even the champ.

Lukas is also optimistic about Wow Wow Wow, an impressive winner recently at Oaklawn who’ll travel to New York for next week’s Gotham. “He can win the Gotham,” the Hall of Fame trainer said.

Lukas indicated he’ll probably aim another late-developing and improving sort, Northern Giant, who finished third in the Fair Grounds’ Risen Star at 53-1, at the Lane’s End Stakes on March 27 at Turfway. And then there are the fillies. 

His Triple Crown success, 13 wins, is matched only by “Sunny” Jim Fitzsimmons’. But Lukas also has won the Kentucky Oaks four times, and he has two fillies in his barn that could give him a shot at his fifth, which would match Woody Stephens for the most victories in the country’s foremost race for 3-year-old fillies.

Lukas recently sent out Decelerator to win the Martha Washington Stakes. An accomplished filly who won Churchill’s Debutante Stakes in the second start of her career, she’ll make her next start, Lukas said, on March 13 in the Honeybee. From Oaklawn, she’ll probably go to Keeneland for the Ashland Stakes on April 3.

And Lukas has Tidal Pool for Oaklawn’s Fantasy Stakes on April 2.

Last year, Tidal Pool ran close to some good fillies, but failed to win a stakes. She was, Lukas said, immature, both physically and mentally. In her seasonal debut, after a troubled trip, she finished third in the Tiffany Lass Stakes at Fair Grounds. And then last week, she had a coming out party, winning at Oaklawn by eight lengths while completing a mile in 1:36.58.

It was a standout performance, one of the best of the year by any 3-year-old and easily one of the best among the fillies. To put Tidal Pool’s victory in context, Conveyance won the Southwest in 1:36.94 over an Oaklawn surface that was slightly faster than the one she found eight days ago. Yes, she still hasn’t won a stakes, and she never has beaten a top filly, but Tidal Pool has taken the big step forward.

And so on the backside at Oaklawn, in the Royal Glint barn, the big guy in the cowboy hat smiles with anticipation.

Off the road to the Derby

“We’re off the Derby trail,” trainer Mark Hanna said about Maximus Ruler this morning. Hanna explained that he sent the son of Roman Ruler from New Orleans to a veterinary clinic in Kentucky for examination. A bone scan Tuesday revealed a sore shin and possible bruising that will keep the colt out of training for about a month.

Owned by Don Benge of Waxahachie, Texas, Maximus Ruler has raced only three times. He flashed his potential with a one-mile allowance victory last November at Churchill Downs. In his seasonal debut, he finished second in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds after battling through lively fractions. Maximus Ruler had been expected to run in last Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes, but Hanna detected the minor problem before it became major and kept the colt in the barn.

“It’s a big disappointment,” Hanna said, “but we still have the horse. Nothing’s fractured; nothing’s broken.”

The injury means Maximus Ruler probably won’t resume training until April and so will miss the Triple Crown. But Hanna said he hoped the promising colt might participate in some major stakes in the summer or fall.

Leading the way on the road to the Triple Crown

With the most impressive performance yet given by any horse of his generation, Eskendereya leads the parade. Rarely in February does a 3-year-old get within reach of the kind of performance necessary to win the Kentucky Derby. One or two usually take that forward step, make that improvement, in March, and perhaps a few more advance to that level in April. But with Saturday’s Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, Eskendereya is already there.

By any measure, from any perspective, his performance was outstanding. He won by 8 1/2 lengths, steadily increasing his advantage in the stretch while running the final three-eighths of a mile in 36.46 seconds. He ran the final furlong in 12.33. He ran an internal half-mile, around the second turn – significant because the Kentucky Derby is often, even usually, won in the second turn – in 48.42. And, of course, his final clocking sparkled: 1:48.87, making it the fastest nine-furlong edition of the race.

Eskendereya’s sensational performance makes him the clear leader on the road to the Triple Crown. His effort was three-to-four lengths better than any two-turn performance by any other 3-year-old. And his trainer, Todd Pletcher, said they haven’t gotten to the bottom of him yet, meaning he believes there’s room for improvement.

Jackson Bend gave a respectable, workmanlike performance to be second, but was no match for the winner. Aikenite improved to be third. And Buddy’s Saint, the 9-5 favorite making his seasonal debut, had a nightmare in the first turn, getting bounced around, possibly into the rail, to finish ninth. Should he be forgiven that effort? Absolutely. Could you run a mile after getting the wind and who-knows-what-else knocked out of you? Nevertheless, the performance, or lack of performance, probably puts Buddy’s Saint in a difficult position simply because he got nothing out of the race, other than a nightmare.  

At Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., Conveyance led throughout in his catch-me-if-you-can style to win Saturday’s Southwest Stakes. The final time, 1:36.94 for the mile, was very solid, the fastest clocking since Mystery Storm’s 1:36.60 in 1995. And the race suggests, as trainer Bob Baffert suspected, that Conveyance is better on dirt than on synthetic surfaces. From this perspective, the performance was much better than his San Rafael simply because he tossed down sharp fractions – 46.25 and 1:10.67 for three-quarters -- on his way to the win. The unbeaten colt could very well move forward from this. Still, he ran the final quarter-mile in 26.27. And so a look down the road, to nine and 10 furlongs, would envision Dublin, the runner-up, moving by Conveyance.

Making his first start of the year and first since having throat surgery, Dublin had some trouble early, rallied four-wide in the second turn and finished less than a length behind Conveyance while running the final quarter-mile in about 25 seconds. That was an encouraging performance for last year’s Hopeful winner. His trainer, Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas, said prior to the race that he was having trouble sleeping because thoughts of Dublin kept interrupting his rest. The colt was training that sharply. Well, Lukas, who gets to the barn before 5 o’clock every morning, has never required much sleep. And he won’t get much before May 1.

The big disappointment at Oaklawn was Dryfly, the Smarty Jones winner. Calvin Borel didn’t push Dryfly to challenge Conveyance; they seemed to settle in comfortably on the inside about 1 1/2 lengths back. But after three-quarters, Dryfly retreated. He might be a free-running sort who needs the early lead, and that style doesn’t frequently pay dividends in the Triple Crown.

At Fair Grounds in New Orleans, Discreetly Mine proved he can succeed around two turns by winning the Risen Star Stakes. The race, though, didn’t answer many questions. Discreetly Mine got away with a clear lead in easy fractions – 48.75 for the half-mile and 1:13.44 for three-quarters – and the leading trio went around the track 1-2-3 for the entire 1 1/16 miles. Tempted To Tapit finished second, 1 1/2 lengths back, with Northern Giant, a 53-1 bomber Lukas sent to New Orleans, a neck farther back in third.

The final time – 1:44.88 for the 1 1/16 miles – was solid, but nothing more than that. To provide some context, the long shot Stonehouse won the Mineshaft Stakes in 1:44.09, narrowly beating General Quarters, with Giant Oak third.

Discreetly Mine was never seriously threatened, but the race proved only that he can win with a perfect trip. He could move forward and prove much more, of course, but until he does, he doesn’t look like one of the leaders on the road to Kentucky. Drosselmeyer, Stay Put and Ron The Greek all tried to rally into the slow pace, but with little success. In other words, they weren’t good enough to overcome the circumstances, but they could improve down the road.

D’Funnybone looked sharp with his three-wide move to win the Hutcheson, but his pedigree doesn’t argue for classic success. And Connemara rallied from far back to win the Camino Real Derby, but it was a slow race.

Anyway, after Saturday’s races, here’s a look at the leaders on the road to the Triple Crown.

1. Eskendereya: The Florida Derby will probably be next for the clear leader.

2. Lookin At Lucky: The champ is aimed at the San Felipe for his seasonal debut.

3. Rule: His contender status confirmed at Tampa Bay, he gives Pletcher several options – the Wood possibly being the most attractive of them.

4. Super Saver: Another of Pletcher’s stars, he’s training sharply in Florida and could make his seasonal debut in either the Rebel at Oaklawn or the Gotham at Aqueduct.

5. Dublin: His Southwest was a perfect start for a campaign that will probably include the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby on the way to Kentucky.

6. Caracortado: Don’t underestimate the Cal-bred; his Bob Lewis was outstanding, and the champ could find him tough to beat in the San Felipe.

7. Dave In Dixie: The lightly raced colt with the big kick is also aimed at the San Felipe.

8. American Lion: On a surface that favored closers, his Bob Lewis was solid, and he could be better on dirt.

9. Conveyance: He’s still unbeaten, but how much farther can he go?

10. Jackson Bend: The diminutive colt has yet to take a step forward as a 3-year-old.
 
Also eligible: Buddy’s Saint, D’Funnybone, Maximus Ruler, Sidney’s Candy, Discreetly Mine, Tiz Chrome, Noble’s Promise, Tempted To Tapit, Interactif, Aikenite, Drosselmeyer, Odysseus, Fly Down, Stay Put, Ron The Greek, Connemara.

 

Previewing the preps: The Risen Star

This weekend, the historic Fair Grounds in the great city of New Orleans offers the best racing program in the country. Today’s stakes begin with the Pan Zareta, where Dubai Majesty appears to be the one to beat, and then five more stakes follow, including the Silverbulletday, the Mineshaft and the Risen Star. Devil May Care, who may have been, in the opinion of her trainer, the nation’s best 2-year-old filly last year, when she didn’t have a chance to show her talent on Santa Anita’s synthetic surface, makes her seasonal debut in the Silverbulletday. General Quarters, Friesan Fire and Giant Oak meet in the Mineshaft. But the most interesting race on the card, and perhaps the most intriguing of the day’s Triple Crown preps, is the Risen Star.

The RISEN STAR at Fair Grounds

The Risen Star is the Finnegans Wake of the weekend. OK, OK, that might be a reach, and so let’s try this: The Risen Star is the Lady Gaga of the weekend. I say that with an acknowledgement that Lady Gaga remains for me a complete, pluperfect pop cultural mystery, and that’s the point. The Risen Star is a mystery, too. But unlike Lady Gaga, from my point of view anyway, the Risen Star is intriguing enough and the rewards lucrative enough to invite, or even encourage, an effort to unravel the mystery and understand what’s going on.

Why is it a mystery? Well, the Risen Star seems a mystery because of horses such as Bravo Whiskey. As a handicapper, what do you do with Bravo Whiskey? He won his debut impressively, but since then he has done little in two starts. So what is he doing in here? His trainer, Neil Howard, is an excellent horseman who’s not inclined to foolishness; he never has been known to wander into the woods equipped with nothing more than a slingshot while searching for a grizzly bear. So why has he entered Bravo Whiskey in the Risen Star? Why does Lady Gaga look like an anorexic alien?

Then there’s Tempted To Tapit. How good is he? He won his last by more than 11 lengths, and the splits suggest he could zip to the lead here and proceed directly to the winner’s circle. Well, let’s not jump so eagerly into that water bed of a conclusion. That race was in the mud, on the inner track at Aqueduct, and if that effort was genuine, if he’s really that good, then why were his other races on a fast track so, well, mediocre? Hmmm.

And then there’s Hotep, the full-brother to Queen’s Plate winner Eye of the Leopard. He may have moved too early in his seasonal debut and probably needed the race, but the good-looking colt won his last outing impressively. Sure, it was a slow race, but he won with authority, and he looks like a runner. Could he possibly be good enough? Maybe.

Yes, the Risen Star is full of intrigue, which might suggest it’s more like The Moonstone than Finnegans Wake, more like Peter Lorre than Lady Gaga, all of which, from this point of view, makes it even more inviting.

But rather than confuse myself by wondering why Peter Lorre talked like that or how good Hotep might be and what Bravo Whiskey is doing in the Risen Star, I’ll simply begin with what I’ve been able to figure out, starting with Stay Put. A month or so ago, when I came out with the top 100 noisemakers on the road to the Triple Crown, my very good friend Bob Fortus, the astute turf writer for the New Orleans Times Picayune, told me I had Stay Put rated too low.

OK, I received the opinion as it was given  -- politely. I was certain I would be proven to have some horses rated too low, some too high. After all, how supernatural would it be if in May the true hierarchy of 3-year-olds, as if that could be determined, exactly conformed to my list of 100 presented in January? Bob simply offered a different opinion, and a difference of opinions, as Mark Twain once pointed out, is what makes a horse race.

Well, now that I’ve looked at Stay Put more closely, out of respect for Bob’s opinion, I’m inclined to agree with him. I probably had Stay Put rated too low. He has won consecutive races in New Orleans with a powerful late run, and his last victory, on January 3, was nothing less than stunning. He rallied from last to win by a length, a fact that by itself wouldn’t turn a head, especially since the final time wasn’t particularly fast. So what made the performance so deceptively special? Well, Stay Put rallied into a shockingly slow pace, 48.56 for the opening half-mile, and he ran right by some good horses, including Hotep and Worldly. And now for the rest of the story: The Fair Grounds surface that day favored speed. Four of the seven races on the main track were won by horses that led throughout. Two others were won by stalkers. There was a speed bias, and Stay Put rallied from last into a dawdling pace. Only a good horse could do that.

Compare that effort to Ron The Greek’s LeComte. The LeComte pace was so quick – 46.80 for the half-mile on a day when speed wasn’t holding – that the race fell apart, a la Humpty Dumpty drunkenly slipping off the celebrated wall . Ron The Greek rallied from far back for the victory, but the race had set up for him. And Ron The Greek, by the way, is the 3-1 favorite in the Risen Star.

So Stay Put is one horse to focus on here. And Discreetly Mine is another. In his last outing, the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park, Discreetly Mine stumbled at the start and then advanced in the turn only to be bumped soundly. From there, he retreated to finish fourth. But he was close enough to the speedy Wildcat Frankie to get bumped by him, which suggests Discreetly Mine could be fast enough to control the pace in the Risen Star. Keep in mind, this is the horse who ran second in last year’s Champagne after pressing the pace, the horse who finished second in the Futurity at Belmont. One more thing about Discreetly Mine: His trainer, Todd Pletcher, said the colt has indicated in his training that he wants more distance. More, I presume, than the six furlongs of the Spectacular Bid, and more as in the 1 1/16 miles of the Risen Star.

Drosselmeyer, who travels to New Orleans from Florida, is another interesting horse here. Having started his career on turf, he has won consecutive races on dirt. In fact, he’s unbeaten on dirt. He probably won’t enjoy the kind of perfect trip he had in his last outing, but he has sufficient natural speed to get position early, and he has proven he can finish.

Selections: Discreetly Mine, Stay Put, Drosselmeyer.

Long shot possibility: “He’s getting good,” Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas said about Northern Giant. He needed six races to break his maiden, but he won his last by more than 11 lengths at Oaklawn. The track was sloppy, which, of course, may explain the performance. On the other hand, as Lukas said, Northern Giant could just be getting good. At 12-1 he’s probably worth including in any multi-horse investments.

Most likely to be exposed: Yes, Tempted to Tapit sparkled while winning by 11 1/2 lengths at Aqueduct. He led throughout and steadily increased his advantage. But was that the true Tempted to Tapit? Probably not. The muddy track unabashedly favored speedsters. Six of the nine races at Aqueduct that day were won by front-running speedsters. Well, Tempted to Tapit won’t be on the Aqueduct inner track Saturday. 

Previewing the preps: The Fountain of Youth

Saturday’s Triple Crown preps may not reveal the identity of the horse who will win the Kentucky Derby, but they will probably expose some horses who can’t. In other words, as Todd Pletcher said, this weekend, like every weekend from now until May, will clarify the Triple Crown picture. Right now, the road to the Triple Crown is like a bridge in the fog: You can’t see where it leads. But the fog will clear gradually, little by little. Saturday’s races should indeed help to burn off some of the mist.

The FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH at Gulfstream Park

The Fountain of Youth should clarify the enigma known as Buddy’s Saint. Well, it should provide a little clarity anyway. I describe Buddy’s Saint as something of an enigma because of the Nashua and the Remsen. Comparing one to the other is like comparing the lightning to the lightning bug. Buddy’s Saint won the Nashua by 12 lengths in a fast clocking; three weeks later, he won the Remsen by five, but in a dreadfully slow time over a very modest group.

That slow time could mean nothing, or at least nothing more than Buddy’s Saint did just what he had to do to win. It could mean he’d prefer more than three weeks between races. Or it could mean the Nashua was an illusion, a fata morgana.

I suspect the middle option is the correct one. A good looking and imposing horse who has a long stride, Buddy’s Saint could turn out to be one of the best of this year’s sophomores. Her certainly looks the part. Still, to return from a three-month layoff in a major stakes at 1 1/8 miles seems ambitious, especially for a lightly raced colt who has had a total of eight workouts this year. And so while I concede he could turn out to be the best of these down the road, I don’t think he’s going to represent a good investment Saturday at 3-1, his odds in the morning line.

Eskendereya, however, is appealing at 5-1. His odds may drift downward; still, he’ll probably be third choice in the betting, and his chances of winning are from this perspective every bit as good as those of Buddy’s Saint or Jackson Bend, the 5-2 morning-line favorite. Todd Pletcher, Eskendereya’s trainer, repeatedly has said this horse was born to run nine furlongs and farther. In the mornings, in long gallops and workouts, Eskendereya just doesn’t tire, Pletcher said.

Eskendereya led throughout to win an allowance race at one mile in his seasonal debut. But his being on the lead was merely a product of his natural ability and the absence of any speed. He won’t be on the lead Saturday, although he’ll probably have to use some of his speed to overcome the eight-hole and get position in the first turn. A fresh Buddy’s Saint could grab the early advantage. Jackson Bend, who’s a stalker by nature, will be close early and could have the lead if Buddy’s Saint is taken in hand or doesn’t get away cleanly. Jackson Bend was probably best in the Holy Bull, where he finished second after racing a length off the early leaders while three-wide, and he should step forward here.

Jackson Bend gave his best performance last year at 1 1/16 miles at Calder. The track was very slow that day, and the pace (48.80 for the half), which might seem soporific, was actually solid. Jackson Bend stalked and made the lead in mid-stretch. And I expect him to make the lead at some point in the Fountain of Youth. He could take on Buddy’s Saint on the backstretch or in the second turn, but either way, Jackson Bend will be tough to beat.

But so will Eskendereya. His first start of the year basically matched his best performance as a 2-year-old, where he won the Pilgrim by more than seven lengths, and that’s exactly what you want to see in these 3-year-olds pointed at the Triple Crown. And so now he’s ready to take a big step forward, especially at this distance. Selections: Eskendereya, Jackson Bend, Buddy’s Saint.

Long shot possibilities: Lost Aptitude is another enigma. He has raced exclusively on turf, where he won the Grand Canyon in flashy style at Churchill Downs. He lost over a yielding course last year at Keeneland and again in his seasonal debut at Calder, but otherwise his turf efforts have been outstanding. So what’s he doing here? Well, he’s by Aptitude out of a Lost Code mare. In other words, his pedigree is dirty. If he can transfer his talents to the dirt and if he can overcome that No. 9 post position, he could be a serious player, and at 10-1 those aren’t too many ifs.

Aikenite showed speed in the Holy Bull, but then faltered to finish sixth. Afterwards, Pletcher later said he thought the son of Yes It’s True was too close to the pace. And indeed Aikenite has given his best efforts when taken back and allowed to make one run. That strategy employed Saturday could give him a chance to upset or, more likely, hit the board at attractive odds.

Most likely to be exposed: Pulsion has raced on synthetic surfaces exclusively, which may have favored his style, and like Buddy’s Saint he’s retuning from a layoff. He doesn’t appear to have much speed and is likely to find himself blocked on the rail behind several horses.

Previewing the preps: The Southwest

Saturday’s Triple Crown preps may not reveal the identity of the horse who will win the Kentucky Derby, but they will probably expose some horses who can’t. In other words, as Todd Pletcher said, this weekend, like every weekend from now until May, will clarify the Triple Crown picture. Right now, the road to the Triple Crown is like a bridge in the fog: You can’t see where it leads. But the fog will clear gradually, little by little. Saturday’s races should indeed help to burn off some of the mist.

The SOUTHWEST at Oaklawn Park

The Southwest, of course, was originally scheduled for Monday. Just as it has disrupted many schedules, weather forced a postponement. Horses at Fair Grounds in New Orleans have lost several days of training to the weather; horses at Oaklawn, too. And, of course, Santa Anita’s Bob Lewis Stakes had to be moved back a week. But Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas said at this point, in February, the setbacks and shuffling schedules aren’t critical and don’t add up to a major disadvantage. It would be different in late March and certainly in April, of course.
 
In the Southwest, Lukas will send out Dublin, who’s the most intriguing horse in the field. The Hopeful winner concluded his juvenile campaign with two dull performances that Lukas attributes to a breathing problem. Since having throat surgery, Dublin has trained sharply at Oaklawn for his return. And he could benefit greatly from the postponement.

If the race had been run Monday, he would have left the gate from post position No. 10. That, Lukas said, would have been a serious negative because Dublin has just enough speed to get himself hung out wide in the short run to the first turn. But he has drawn No. 3 for Saturday’s race. From there, he should be able to save ground and find a comfortable position behind the early leaders, Conveyance and Dryfly.

From here, Conveyance looks like the Southwest winner. But that’s based on two assumptions: first, that he’s going to improve on dirt; second, that Dryfly will not challenge him for the early lead. And yes, I agree, those assumptions are rather fragile, but Conveyance is 7-2 in the morning line, and at those odds, I think I’d take a chance on fragility.

Conveyance, of course, is unbeaten in three races, most recently winning the San Rafael at Santa Anita, where he led virtually throughout. The Santa Anita surface has been very unkind to front-running horses, especially in two-turn races, and so Conveyance’s victory may be better than it at first appears. Conveyance, it’s true, got away with soft fractions, but he finished well. Most important, he left reason to believe there’s considerable room for improvement.

Baffert said he thinks Conveyance will like the dirt, and he has good reason to think so. Down the lane, Conveyance switched leads three times – that is, he led each stride with his right foreleg, then led with his left, and then, near the wire, he switched back to his right. Ideally, a horse will switch from his left to his right lead at the top of the stretch and stay on his right lead throughout the run down the lane. Did Conveyance switch repeatedly because of his inexperience? Possibly. Or because he didn’t particularly care for the synthetic surface? Possibly. Either way, he should improve Saturday.

Well, he should improve as long as Dryfly doesn’t force a white-hot pace. Dryfly, make no mistake about it, is fast enough to go with Conveyance. In fact, he’s fast enough to be in front of Conveyance if that’s desired. Dryfly led throughout to win the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on a day when the surface was as slow as a glacier. At a half-mile, the track was about 10 lengths slower than the norm. With the short run to the turn taken into account, that opening half-mile of the Smarty Jones in 47.60 was more like a 45 flat. And still Dryfly persevered to win. It was an outstanding effort. And so if Dryfly has been successful on the early lead, why would trainer Lynn Whiting instruct Calvin Borel to take him back, into a stalking position?

For the answer, I refer you to the 1992 Southwest. Whiting is a superb horseman, and he keeps his eye on the ball. In 1992, as in 2010, the ball was the Kentucky Derby. Going into the 1992 Southwest, Lil E Tee had won three of his five races, with two seconds, and he had always raced on the early lead or close to it. But if he was going to be successful down the Triple Crown road, Lil E Tee had to learn to control his natural speed; for that purpose, the Southwest became a classroom. Pat Day took Lil E Tee back to fourth in the six-horse field, allowing Big Sur to grab the early advantage. Big Sur cruised around there and won at 17-1, and Lil E Tee finished well to be third. Most important, three weeks later, Lil E Tee won the Jim Beam Stakes, and five weeks after that he won the Kentucky Derby.

And so I expect to see Conveyance go to the lead in the Southwest – from post position No. 9, he has to use his speed to avoid a wide trip – with Dryfly stalking. And I expect them to go around the track 1-2 for entire mile, with Dublin closing to be third. Selections: Conveyance, Dryfly, Dublin.

Long shot possibilities: Domonation tried to rally into the slow pace of the San Rafael, but had little luck, finishing third. He could find more success here. Cool Bullet may have moved prematurely into a lively pace in the LeComte at Fair Grounds; finding himself in a good position just behind the early leaders here, he could be dangerous.

Most likely to be exposed: Cardiff Giant had an easy trip in the San Rafael, but couldn’t finish with Conveyance. Can he stalk a faster pace and be successful in the Southwest? Or, if taken back, can he rally from mid-pack in this company? The answers aren’t encouraging.  

Leading the way on the road to the Triple Crown

Rule seems to improve each time he leaves the starting gate. He concluded his juvenile season with three consecutive victories, and today he began a new campaign with a victory in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay. So he has won four consecutive races, and he never has lost around two turns.

As expected, he went to the lead immediately at Tampa Bay, and when the opening half-mile split (47.72 seconds) went up, the outcome shed all doubt. He raced comfortably on the lead and then drew clear when challenged to win by three lengths, completing the 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.15. an excellent time for the day and good for 100 in my numbers. That effort represents a perfect starting place for him. Although he has won his two-turn races leading throughout, Rule doesn’t appear to be a headstrong sort who requires the lead and will go on strike if he doesn’t get it.

As for the day’s other major Triple Crown prep, the Bob Lewis, it went to Caracortado, a Cal-bred who’s unbeaten in five outings. He completed the 1 1/16 miles in 1:41.75, which was about the same as St. Trinians’ winning time (1:41.73) in the Santa Maria. In other words, for me Caracortado also earned a triple-digit number for himself. But I can’t watch those races at Santa Anita without concluding that the surface, especially in two-turn races, favors horses who rally from off the pace, horses such as St. Trinians and Caracortado. He had a perfect trip cruising behind the early leaders, and when asked he ran right by Tiz Chrome and American Lion. Dave In Dixie rallied from far back to be second. And American Lion, who stalked Tiz Chrome early, finished third in a good effort.

Anyway, after today’s results, here’s the latest Top Ten:

1. Lookin At Lucky: The champ should be cranking up soon for his seasonal debut next month.

2. Buddy’s Saint: He appears to be training well for his seasonal debut in the Fountain of Youth.

3. Rule: He’ll be aimed at a Grade I, his trainer, Todd Pletcher, said. That probably means the Florida Derby or Wood will be next.

4. Eskendereya: Pletcher said this handsome colt doesn’t tire, and so he should continue to improve as the distances stretch, starting with the Fountain of Youth.

5. Conveyance: Given the surface, his win in the San Rafael looks better and better. He switched leads three times down the lane at Santa Anita, suggesting he could very well be much better on dirt, where he should be hard to beat in Monday’s Southwest.

6. Super Saver: He could be going to New York for the Gotham or to Oaklawn for the Rebel.

7. Jackson Bend: He was probably best in the Holy Bull and will be among many good ones in the Fountain of Youth.

8. Dryfly: Oaklawn Park’s Southwest Stakes could be a proving ground for him as he’ll try to run down Conveyance.

9: Dublin: He drew an outside post position for the Southwest, but if he finishes strongly in a good effort, he’ll move himself down the road to the Triple Crown.

10. Caracortado: He may be a synthetic freak, but his Bob Lewis was too good to ignore.

Also eligible: Maximus Ruler, Dave In Dixie, Drosselmeyer, Tahitian Warrior, Lost Aptitude, American Lion, Tiz Chrome, Noble’s Promise, D’Funnybone.

It's on again

The race of the year is on again. Rachel Alexandra, the reigning Horse of the Year, and Zenyatta, the unbeaten champion of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, could meet for the first time April 9 at Oaklawn Park in the $5 million Apple Blossom Invitational.

Oaklawn Park president Charles Cella announced this afternoon that the racetrack will move the Apple Blossom to April 9. It had been scheduled for April 3. But that date was proving to be problematic for Rachel Alexandra, who hasn’t raced since Sept. 5 and who has missed nine days of training because of the weather.

Before moving the date, Cella had conversations with the owners of both horses, according to a release Oaklawn put out this afternoon.

“I understand the concerns of all the competitors in needing a prep race and properly preparing for a race of this magnitude,” Cella said in this afternoon’s press release, “especially in light of the weather we’ve been experiencing recently around the country. Both parties want this to happen when their champions are at their absolute peak. This date makes that possible.”

If not April 3, why not another day in April for Rachel and Zenyatta?

It won’t happen on April 3. But if Oaklawn Park were to move the Apple Blossom to April 17 or April 9, it could still happen, this Rachel Alexandra-Zenyatta showdown, this meeting of champions that’s arguably the most anticipated racetrack confrontation since Seabiscuit met War Admiral in 1938.

Jess Jackson, Rachel Alexandra’s principal owner, issued a release Wednesday afternoon to say the reigning Horse of the Year won’t race April 3. Oaklawn president Charles Cella had proposed increasing the purse of the Apple Blossom Stakes, scheduled for April 3, to $5 million if both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, the unbeaten champion of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, participated.

But as Steve Asmussen, Rachel Alexandra’s trainer, explained, the great filly may not be at her best April 3. She hasn’t raced since Sept. 5, when she won the Woodward at Saratoga. And, Asmussen said, she can’t possibly be ready for a preparatory race before March 13. That would give her three weeks to the Apple Blossom, which isn’t enough time.

“Everybody wants to see this race, (this meeting of champions),” Asmussen said, “but everybody wants to see Rachel and Zenyatta at their best. . . . And I don’t think three weeks are sufficient after her first race in six months. . . . We don’t want to run her if she’s less than 100 percent.”

Rachel Alexandra’s connections asked Oaklawn to move the race back a week. But Oaklawn understandably said that was impossible. The Oaklawn season concludes April 10, when the traditional closing-day feature is the Arkansas Derby.

But what about April 17? It would probably be a better date for Zenyatta, too. She’s also aimed at a March 13 return. Only once in her career has she raced with less than four weeks between starts. And April 17 would be better from the perspective of media attention and national exposure. The NCAA Final Four is scheduled for April 3-5.

 “If they can change the distance,” Asmussen said, referring to Oaklawn’s proposal to extend the Apple Blossom from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles, largely for Zenyatta’s benefit, “then why can’t they change the date?”

This morning, Pat Pope, Oaklawn’s racing secretary, said there “hasn’t been any conversation” about moving the race to April 17. That, of course, would require Oaklawn to add a weekend onto its season, which would need the approval of the Arkansas Racing Commission. But Oaklawn lost three days of racing last month to winter weather, and so such a request would be not only reasonable but welcome. And if Oaklawn is hesitant to extend its season, if it's wed to the tradition of ending the season with the Arkansas Derby, then how about April 9?

That would be a gamble, of course. Moving the race wouldn’t guarantee both horses’ participation; it would only improve the chances. Rachel Alexandra has missed nine days of training at Fair Grounds because of the weather in New Orleans. The weather has been volatile all year, and it may not cooperate with an April 17 meeting or an April 9 meeting.

Still, April 3 isn't the only day on the calendar that can accommodate the race. And the reward of having the most anticipated race in more than 70 years more than justifies the risk.
 

The most talented horse in the country: Quality Road

That was the best performance I’ve seen since Curlin’s victory in the Dubai World Cup. The best performance in this country since Curlin’s win in the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic and maybe the best since Ghostzapper’s 2004 Classic win at Lone Star. Perhaps I should qualify it as the best dirt performance, but by any measure Quality Road’s victory in Saturday’s Donn Handicap at Gulfstream was spectacular.

Rachel Alexandra is great. Zenyatta is great. But Quality Road, make no mistake about it, is the most talented racehorse in the country. Last year, he was the most talented 3-year-old around, but foot problems and sloppy tracks prevented him from fulfilling his potential. Now, he’s poised for a campaign that could sparkle.

Consider his Donn. He stalked Past The Point through rapid fractions – 46.02 for the half-mile and 1:09.87 through six furlongs. Then he burst to the lead, through a mile in 1:34.78, and cruised home, completing the 1 1/8 miles in 1:47.49, lowering the track record (1:47.75) he set in last year’s Florida Derby. Quality Road won by nearly 13 lengths Saturday, which has to make you wonder why John Velazquez ever felt the need to use his whip.

To put it in perspective, the only other nine furlong race Saturday on the dirt at Gulfstream was run in 1:53.18. Prior to the Donn, Wildcat Frankie, a fleet 3-year-old, won a one-turn mile in 1:38.51.

Breaking the Donn down into its pieces, Quality Road’s performance gets even more impressive. He ran each of the first three quarters under 24 seconds, the second under 23 seconds. He ran the fourth quarter-mile, partly around the second turn, in 24.81 and then cruised. For my personal numbers, his race looks like this: 92 for the half-mile, 111 for six furlongs, 118 for a mile and 120 for 1 1/8 miles, and that’s conservative. And he did it carrying 123 pounds, spotting his “rivals” from six to 10 pounds.

Nobody will beat Quality Road this year on a fast dirt track around the big ovals. He never has raced around a one-mile oval, such as the one at Churchill Downs, where, of course, this year’s BCup will be run. Maybe on a synthetic track, maybe in the mud, maybe on a tight-turn oval, but even then it’s difficult to see anybody beating Quality Road if he maintains some semblance of the form he displayed in the Donn.

After the Donn, his trainer, Todd Pletcher, said Quality Road probably will get a break and then be pointed toward the Met Mile (May 31 at Belmont), the Saratoga meeting and then the Breeders’ Cup Classic. That sounds like five, maybe six, more races. This is going to be a very exciting year.