Horse racing

In search of Triple Crown prospects

  

And so the search for Triple Crown possibilities begins. Actually, it usually begins around August, when so many royally bred youngsters debut at Saratoga and Del Mar. But with Breeders’ Cup business done, the tone of the search becomes a little more serious, especially this weekend, with an array of races for juveniles at Churchill and Aqueduct.

 

But if you were looking ahead to the Remsen and the Kentucky Jockey Club or if you were just preoccupied with a certain holiday bird, you might have overlooked something. On Thanksgiving Day, in his debut, Walking The Beach won the last race at Churchill in a style that suggests he has a promising future.

 

“We’ve been very high on him for a while,” said his trainer, Bret Calhoun. “He looks like he has everything you’d want in a young horse – size, talent, pedigree, disposition.”

 

Walking The Beach raced in seventh until midway around the turn, where jockey Miguel Mena sent him to the outside. And from there, Walking The Beach made the move that not only won the race but confirmed his potential. Circling horses, he advanced quickly, running the fifth furlong in 11.77 seconds and the final quarter-mile in 24.60. When the colt made the lead inside the furlong marker, his momentum carrying him to an inevitable victory, Mena took him in hand. Walking The Beach won by 1 1/2 lengths and completed the six furlongs in 1:11 despite Mena’s virtually pulling him up the final 50 yards.

 

On behalf of Ted Cooper of Galveston, Texas, Calhoun purchased Walking The Beach for $325,000 out of a sale of 2-year-olds in training. The handsome son of Medaglia d’Oro entered his debut trailing a string of solid workouts.

 

Walking The Beach will travel on Tuesday from Louisville to New Orleans, and he’ll probably make his next start around two turns at Fair Grounds, Calhoun said.

 

The sport must protect the bettors, too

The sport has modified whips and changed rules to protect horses; racetracks have installed safety rails and required protective jackets to protect jockeys. I applaud all the efforts to protect the competitors, but the sport still comes up short in its efforts, or lack of effort, to protect bettors. That’s true of racing everywhere, but especially true of quarter horse racing.

A friend at Lone Star Park who loves to invest in the short-term futures market, otherwise known as horse racing, recently expressed his frustration with the current quarter horse season. His investments, he made it clear, were going to pass from flow to drip. The occasion for this decision was the Dash For Cash Futurity, won by Tempting Dash.

In his debut, or what everyone this side of the Rio Grande thought was his debut, Tempting Dash won his trial for the Dash For Cash. He won by daylight, in a solid but unspectacular clocking; it was one of the weaker trials, and so it made assessment difficult. He was clearly impressive, but it was impossible to say how much more talent might be there.

Two weeks later, he showed everybody just how much more he had: Tempting Dash won the $445,185 Dash For Cash Futurity by nearly a length, setting a track record of 19.379 seconds for the 400 yards. It was a stunning performance, especially for a horse making just the second start of his career. He ran so professionally, with such determination, just incredible for a horse that had run only once.

But that was a deception. According to “The Daily Racing Form” and the official track program, Tempting Dash had one start prior to the Dash For Cash, but that was a masterpiece of sinuosity. After the race, in the winner’s circle, his trainer, Eusevio Huitron, revealed that the futurity wasn’t Tempting Dash’s second start. In fact, the colt had run in Mexico before ever coming to Lone Star. Huitron’s English failed him when it came to supplying details, but Tempting Dash apparently ran twice in Mexico before an injury forced his connections to wait on Lone Star.

When my friend heard about this, he was dejected. If he had known about the Mexico races – And he should have known, shouldn’t he? He should have had that information, shouldn’t he, because if he and every bettor in the grandstand weren’t entitled to it then bettors everywhere can’t trust the information they purchase or the data provided by the racetrack to be true and accurate, and horse racing is just a shell game, isn’t it? -- he might have invested in Tempting Dash. But it really didn’t matter whether he would have or wouldn’t have bet on the colt; the only thing that mattered was that he felt as if he had been taken, swindled. He had been asked to pick the walnut shell that hid the pea only to discover the pea was in somebody’s pocket.

In Huitron’s defense, the trainer didn’t act as if he were revealing some deep secret. From his point of view, if I can judge by his behavior and a brief conversation, this was just part of the game: Some people know what’s going on, and some don’t, and shame on those who don’t. But that attitude perhaps may be more alarming than the incident because it suggests that this is commonplace, that this is the way of the quarter horse world.

Years ago, I remember, at Trinity Meadows, a horse would sometimes show up in the entries who hadn’t raced in years. He would, of course, be 30-1 in the morning line, but I remember a few of those horses dropping to odds-on with the first flash of the tote board and then winning by daylight. The explanation was always the same: He had been running Mexico. Successfully, I presume. I vaguely remember a 5-year-old first-time starter who romped. But, of course, he really wasn’t a first-time starter.

It’s a naive horseplayer – and most so-called professional, or public, handicappers, some having never spent a moment in the stable area of a racetrack, would be included in this category – who believes the “DRF” or the “Sheets” or the track program conveys everything that can be known about a horse or a race. Information is power. Fans not only need but deserve accurate information. And racetracks simply have to do a better job of providing that information rather than some bimbo’s half-baked opinion. (A bimbo, I should point out, can be male or female.) And quarter horse racing has to move beyond its origins.

Quarter horse racing began on a personal level, when one cowboy challenged another: “My horse can outrun your horse.” And too often it remains at that personal level, with no effort to reach out to a broader public, as in some people knowing what’s going on and shame on those who don’t. It’s almost as if most quarter horse owners and trainers don’t even realize people other than themselves are actually betting on these horses.

And the betting can indeed be personal. Much of the wagering at Lone Star – I stop short of saying “most” – doesn’t go through the windows. Much of the betting involves one owner or trainer or groom betting another owner or trainer or groom, horse-against-horse, just like the cowboys. It’s traditional. And it’s commonplace on the grandstand apron. I’ve heard of as much as $50,000 being bet in these my-horse-can-beat-your-horse challenges.

Few images in racing can be as invigorating, uplifting and exciting as a champion quarter horse – Dashing Perfection comes to mind – doing his thing: surging and reaching and powering to the wire at about 50 mph. If you’ve ever seen it, if you’ve ever stood at the rail when such a horse seems to shake the earth, you’ll never forget it. That image will sell itself. But if quarter horse racing doesn’t outgrow its origins, its personal approach, if it doesn’t ensure the dissemination of accurate information and reach out to a broader audience, most people will never bother to discover the sport’s uplifting beauty.

Tempting Dash dashes to the Classic

Tempting Dash seems to get better each time he steps onto the track. Tonight, he became the fastest qualifier for the $1.1 million Texas Classic Futurity by winning the seventh race at Lone Star Park by more than three lengths. That’s like 10 lengths in thoroughbred racing. And despite breaking slowly and then getting bumped soundly, he ran the 400 yards in 19.494 seconds.

In his previous outing, Tempting Dash won the Dash For Cash Futurity. After that race, his trainer, Eusevio Huitron, revealed that the colt had run successfully in Mexico before coming to Lone Star, where he’s now unbeaten in three races.

Here are the qualifiers, from tonight’s nine trials, for the Texas Classic Futurity, which will be run Nov. 28:

Tempting Dash – 19.494
Mark It Famous – 19.543
Chi Ter – 19.640
Shake Em Special Pop – 19.673
Illegal Fireworks – 19.700
Fire And Corona – 19.720
Justzoomin – 19.731
Jessazoom – 19.739
Jess For You – 19.775
Ms Athenas Dividend – 19.780

Let the swoons determine Horse of the Year

I received so many emails and comments on Sunday’s column (“It was Zenyatta’s day, but not her year”) that I’ll probably need a couple days to respond to them all. In the meantime, I’ll offer these additional thoughts on the debate over Horse of the Year.

Emotions seem to be controlling much of the debate so far, as in, not even Rachel could have made such a “hard-hearted” crowd “swoon” as Zenyatta did. Even if that’s true and not symptomatic of a short memory, it’s no reason to anoint a Horse of the Year. And, of course, some of the debate veers into ad hominem, as in, “You must be blind” and “Jess Jackson gambled and now he’ll get what he deserves.” Indeed much of the antagonism to Rachel Alexandra really seems to be aimed at Jackson, which in itself is strange for a sport that has tolerated, even embraced, many carpetbagger owners and self-serving breeders in recent years. Jackson is among the few owners who have kept their stars on the track while at the same time safeguarding their welfare. In that, he's very much like Zenyatta's owners, Ann and Jerry Moss.

Many arguments focus on irrelevancies, as in, “Just ask the breeders which horse they think is more valuable. That’s the Horse of the Year.” What? And why would I ask breeders any question that has to do with racing when, as far as I can tell, they have much more interest in the sales ring than the racetrack, more interest in the business than the sport?

Then there’s the Tim Ice “argument” that you can’t win the championship without winning the championship game. Well, horse racing has no league and no centralized authority that can designate a national, much less world, championship. The BCup’s  calling its races the “World Championships” is simply specious promotional hyperbole, very much like the “Win and You’re In” nonsense. The NYRA could have called the Woodward the “World Championship,” too, but that wouldn’t have made it so. History, not some confederacy of chowderheads or board of directors, provides the precedent and outlines the process for determining champions, and the sport’s recent history includes many champions who did not participate in the “World Championships.”

And, of course, there’s an abundance of misinformation, as in “Zenyatta earned more in one race than Rachel has earned all year.” Actually, that’s not quite right: Zenyatta earned $2.7 million Saturday; Rachel Alexandra earned $2.74 million this year. But if it were correct, it wouldn’t be conclusive. Earnings are one way to measure accomplishment, but just one. Overemphasizing earnings might have crowned Volponi the Horse of the Year in 2002. After all, he earned $2.38 million compared to Azeri’s $2.18 million.

One person emailed me to say Rachel Alexandra shouldn’t be Horse of the Year because she and her connections ducked the 1 1/4 miles and Summer Bird in the Travers. What? She didn’t run in the Travers because her connections had another horse for the race, Kensei, whose potential value as a stallion would have appreciated dramatically with a good performance. And she had just beaten Summer Bird by six lengths in the nine-furlong Haskell, drawing away from him in the lane in a manner that suggested the margin would have been even greater with more distance. Far from ducking anybody, Rachel Alexandra had one of the most aggressive campaigns ever seen from a filly, traveling from state to state and taking on males three times. Zenyatta meanwhile stayed in California and faced males only when they came into her backyard.

And much of the debate has overlooked an important nuance: Because this Breeders’ Cup Classic was run at Santa Anita, over Pro-Ride, it was not as significant or as meaningful as most Classics of the past.

After last year’s Breeders’ Cup and before this year’s, I pointed out that not a single horse made a winning transition from dirt to Pro-Ride. It’s a unique surface, and to it some horses, dirt horses most commonly, just cannot transfer their best performances. Well, the same thing happened this year. Every Breeders’ Cup race on Pro-Ride was won by a horse that previously had raced on either turf or on a synthetic surface. Dirt horses again were winless.

That makes Jess Jackson’s decision not to run Rachel Alexandra in the Classic seem not only reasonable, but wise. And the undeniable tendency diminishes the championship significance of all the Breeders’ Cup races on Pro-Ride. Just look at the Classic: Girolamo, who was unbeaten this year on dirt, didn’t run a step and finished last; after two dismal efforts on the surface, Mine That Bird, the Kentucky Derby winner, finally gave up trying and finished ninth. Even Summer Bird, who finished fourth, didn’t run as well as he had on dirt. And then there were no-shows: Quality Road, displaying amazing intelligence, insisted on being scratched at the gate; Rip Van Winkle, the European standout, ran as if all those rumors about his foot problems were true, finishing 10th. While visually stunning, even inspiring, this Classic simply was not as telling as many, even most, of those in the past.

I worry that geographical bias, unbridled emotions and personal prejudice will determine Horse of the Year. Of course, accomplishments should determine who wins the golden Eclipse Award. And based on accomplishments, the winner is clear.

Zenyatta dominated the stage for one week, one race. Rachel Alexandra dominated the game over a four-month, five-race period, often raising the sport in the popular awareness. Even if you calculate the total number of swoons, Rachel Alexandra is clearly the Horse of the Year.  

'Capping the Cup, part IV

THE BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

This is all about Goldikova, the sensational filly who won the Mile a year ago and who in her career has earned more than $3 million. She has run only one poor race, and that was on a soft course at nine furlongs. She prefers a firm course and a mile, and she’ll get both, of course, at Santa Anita.

A Group I winner against males in France and, of course, in this country, she’ll enter the Mile off a rare loss, a third-place finish at Longchamp. But that was her first outing in more than two months, and her trainer, Freddie Head, dismisses it as an aberration. Interestingly, she’ll run on bleeder medication for the first time in the Mile. She didn’t get the race-day medication a year ago. That also might suggest an explanation for her recent loss.

Goldikova draws the No. 11 post position, but for her that shouldn’t be a problem. She has sufficient speed to secure a perfect stalking position by the time the field enters the first turn. And from there, she should prove very tough to beat.

Delegator, another highly regarded European, appears to be her most serious rival. He spent most of the spring and summer chasing Mastercraftsman and Sea The Stars, but after an interlude he won the Celebration Mile, and a repeat of that effort would put him position to get a sizeable check, event to upset if Goldikova doesn’t get away well.

Cowboy Cal appears to be the best American hope. He won the Oak Tree Mile leading throughout, and he should be able to grab the early advantage here. Zacinto defeated Delegator in their last meeting and never has finished worse than second.

Picks: Goldikova, Delegator, Cowboy Cal, Zacinto.

THE BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

Several of the horses pre-entered for the Dirt Mile are running elsewhere. Mastercraftsman, meanwhile, who was also pre-entered for the Classic, will instead run here, and he’s clearly the one to beat.

Although his best distance is probably a little farther, Mastercraftsman won two Group I races this year at a mile. Most recently, he won on polytrack in preparation for his American debut.

Midshipman has the best chance to upset the 6-5 favorite. He won the Juvenile over this surface a year ago, so he has proven he can handle Pro-Ride, and he recently returned to competition with an encouraging effort in a sprint at Belmont. Most important, he’s the only speed. With Girolamo and Quality Road going to the Classic and Crown of Thorns to the Sprint, Midshipman should have everything his own way with a comfortable advantage and a clear, early lead. And that makes him a very enticing upset possibility and certainly a better investment than the favorite if the morning-line odds hold.

Neko Bay, who’s 20-1 in the morning line, could be an intriguing complement t o any multi-horse investments. He never runs a poor race. He has finished worse than second only once in his career, and that was fourth in a Grade II at Hollywood. Furthest Land is another long-shot possibility. He has won both his races on a synthetic surface, most recently beating a good field in the Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway. He could very well bounce like spaldeen off that effort, but his enticing odds, 20-1, make it worth the risk.

Picks: Mastercraftsman, Midshipman, Neko Bay, Furthest Land.

THE BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

With the two best American turf horses, Gio Ponti and Einstein, going to the Classic, the Europeans can be expected to dominate here. Conduit, of course, won this race a year ago, and although he has only a single victory on his worksheet this year, he’s every bit as good as he was a year ago. Twice he chased the sensational Sea The Stars, most recently finishing fourth in the Arc de Triomphe.

The fear about horses coming here after the Arc is that they’ve already given their optimum effort. And that could be the case with Conduit. But his stablemate Spanish Moon skipped the Arc. And like Conduit, he’s at his best at this mile-and-a-half distance. Spanish Moon has won four of his six races at the distance; Conduit three of five. Keep in mind, though, that Spanish Moon is banned in England because of misbehavior at the starting gate. In other words, watch him closely for any signs of combustion.

Dar Re Mi finished just behind Conduit in the Arc. An admirably consistent filly who has maintained top form, she would be no surprise. Presious Passion could be the best American hope, and if nothing else he’ll make the race interesting. His strategy is beautifully simple: Go to the lead and stay there as long as possible. He has won over the Santa Anita course, and he has won three of five at the distance.

Picks: Conduit, Spanish Moon, Dar Re Mi, Presious Passion

THE BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

A victory by Zenyatta would be highly desirable, but hardly probable. Even though she was flattered by Life Is Sweet’s victory in the Ladies’ Classic, Zenyatta simply doesn’t appeal at short odds.

Nor is Summer Bird attractive, even though he’ll enter the Classic after victories in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Travers. Friday’s results continued the pattern of a year ago: Still, no horse has made a winning transition from dirt to Pro-Ride in a Breeders’ Cup race. And no Travers winner ever has won the Classic.

And so from here, Rip Van Winkle looks like a standout. He enters the Classic after winning the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, the same race that produced last year’s Classic winner, Raven’s Pass. And unlike Raven’s Pass, Rip Van Winkle has proven himself at this 1 1/4-mile distance, finishing second to Sea The Stars in the Eclipse Stakes.

Several long shots are appealing: Quality Road if he handles the surface; Richard’s Kid if he gets the trip; Twice Over, if he can duplicate the form that enabled him to win three straight in England. And then there’s Colonel John. He gave a winning effort in the Goodwood, although finishing second. He raced four-wide in the second turn and lost by only a neck. He appears to be approaching a top effort at the right time.

Gio Ponti and Einstein have been somewhat forgotten. But the European turf horses have run well over this surface, and there’s no reason the two best American turf horses can’t do the same. Moreover, Gio Ponti and Einstein both have experience over Pro-Ride.

Picks: Rip Van Winkle, Colonel John, Gio Ponti, Einstein.

 

'Capping the Cup, part III

THE BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF

The Europeans won this race last year; specifically, John Gosden won it with Donativum. Another European, Westphalia, ran second. And the European cohort appears to be at least as strong this year, with Viscount Nelson, Pounced, Awesome Act, King Ledley and Buzzword. They didn’t make the journey to see Disneyland.

But at least one American, and perhaps two, could welcome the Europeans with a gesture that won’t be confused with open arms. Todd Pletcher certainly can plan a surprise party. He has had a phenomenal record of success in shipping horses to the Oak Tree meeting at Santa Anita. Over the last four years, he has won with six of the 10 horses that he sent to Oak Tree, and with five of six starters on turf, the only loser being Wait A While, who finished third in last year’s Filly & Mare Turf.

He’ll send out Interactif here, a big long-striding son of Broken Vow who won the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland and the With Anticipation at Saratoga. Unbeaten in his two turf races, Interactif looks like a horse ready to accept a starring role. In the Bourbon, he trailed early, advanced effortlessly down the backstretch, his long stride propelling him forward and past rivals, and then he circled horses on the second turn. He was seven-wide when he turned into the lane with the lead, and then he just cruised home.

Interactif has drawn an outside post position here, which would be a serious disadvantage with most horses. But as he showed in the Bourbon, he is very comfortable dropping back early and making a powerful run late; so here he’ll simply drop back and move closer to the rail to save ground in the first turn, and then start picking off horses down the backstretch. Interactif, I think, could become a big-time horse.

The other American horse here that intrigues is Bridgetown, who comes from the stable of Kenny McPeek. He’s probably as successful with juveniles on the turf as any trainer in the country. Over the last five years, with 2-year-olds on the grass, he was won with 28 percent of his 98 starters. Bridgetown has impressed in every start, but especially in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine, where pressed rapid fractions and finished strongly. He could control the pace here and prove tough to run down.

As for the Europeans, Viscount Nelson and Pounced appear best of the group. In England, in ante-post wagering, they’re virtually co-favorites. Aidan O’Brien brings Viscount Nelson, who most recently ran second in a Group II in England. Despite all his success in England and Ireland, O’Brien has a dismal record in recent years, winless in 23 starts, when attempting international forays. Gosden brings Pounced, who just ran second in a Group I in France. And, of course, Gosden won two Breeders’ Cup races a year ago.

Picks: Interactif, Pounced, Viscount Nelson, Bridgetown.

THE BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

This, I think, is by far the most contentious, uncertain and unpredictable of the Breeders’ Cup races. This would leave Nostradamus scratching his head. And if the evenly matched field weren’t enough of a challenge, there’s the unique downhill course, where outside post positions are better than those inside and where the early fractions can get hotter than El Azizia, hotter than the bhut jolokia pepper, hotter than the earth’s core, hotter than -- well, you get the idea.

And the pace, as usual, is the key to the race. California Flag, the 7-2 favorite and the top turf sprinter in the West, can zip through an opening, downhill half-mile in 43 or so seconds and keep going, as he did in the Morvich. But in last year’s Turf Sprint, California Flag and Mr. Nightlinger zoomed down the hill through an opening half-mile in – sit down for this – 41.81. They both came home in an ashtray, of course, finishing 10th and 11th.

If California Flag, who’s a one-dimensional front-running type, can make the lead in 43, he’ll be tough to run down. And there’s no Mr. Nightlinger in here to push him. But there is Canadian Ballet, who threw down a 44.22 split at Saratoga. On a faster course, down the hill, Canadian Ballet could provide enough pressure to blow the race wide open, which, of course, is what happened last year, when Desert Code won at 36-1.

And so I’m looking for long shots and sticking to value-seeking principles. In any multi-race wager, I would, of course, include California Flag. But for investing in just this race, there are some other exciting options, such as Lord Shanakill.

A Group I winner in France, he has been at Santa Anita since September, with Richard Mandella, pointing at this race. Mandella said that when the horse first came to him, Lord Shanakill had some minor physical problems. But they’ve worked through those, and the trainer said he was especially pleased the horse’s recent workouts.

Delta Storm is another long-shot possibility. Despite getting stopped entering the turn and having to race wide, he ran third behind Gayego and Crown Of Thorns in the Ancient Title. Delta Storm once close strongly to finish a neck behind California Flag at five-eighths of a mile. And in this return to the turf, he draws the 14- hole, which should be perfect for him.

Diamondrella is another with Grade I credentials, having won the First Lady at Keeneland. That was at a mile, but she has won sprinting, and she has tremendous acceleration. And Noble Court, who won the only race he ever ran down the hill, could upset. His trainer, John Sadler, said if he had only $2 to bet, he’d bet on this horse, even with the disadvantage of the inside post position.

Picks: Lord Shanakill, Delta Storm, Diamondrella, Noble Court.

THE BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

This is rather straightforward. While acknowledging that Crown Of Thorns and Fleeting Spirit have some appeal as long-shot complements, I regard only four horses as capable of winning: Zensational, Fatal Bullet, Gayego and Capt. Candyman Can.

Zensational has won four consecutive sprints, and in those races his superiority was conspicuous. If his talent edge had been an edifice, it could have been seen from the moon. But here in the Sprint, he’s 7-5 in the morning line; those are thin odds for a horse whose competition has been suspect. In the Pat O’Brien, for example, Zensational faced only four rivals and opened up six lengths while running the opening half-mile in 45.37 seconds. And, keep in mind, that was all straightaway. In other words, the pace of the Pat O’Brien, adjusted for the surface and the run to the turn, was about three lengths slower than the pace in the Phoenix at Keeneland.

He’s fresh, he’s very fast and he insists on leading. So will Zensational respond favorably when Fatal Bullet, Dancing In Silks and Cost Of Freedom push him into a faster pace? At 7-5, I’m not willing to ask that question. But at 9-2, the odds on Fatal Bullet, or even 5-2, the odds on Gayego, the question becomes intriguing.

Fatal Bullet has won nine of his 11 races on synthetic surfaces, with two seconds. As you probably recall, he ran second to Midnight Lute in last year’s Sprint. Unlike Zensational, he has proven he can battle through fast fractions and keep going.

And if all the speedsters converge on a rapid half-mile, which is very possible, Gayego becomes a likely winner. He ran a remarkable final quarter-mile (22.78 seconds) while winning the Ancient Title; he pulled away from Crown Of Thorns and Delta Storm even while being taken in hand. That happened early in the Santa Anita meeting, when it seemed nearly impossible for a speedster to lead from the start and win; still, it was very impressive. The same scenario would open the door also for Capt. Candy Man, who closed strongly to finish second to Fatal Bullet in the Phoenix.

Picks: Fatal Bullet, Gayego, Zensational, Capt. Candyman Can.

 THE BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

This could be one of the better investment opportunities on a day rife with opportunity. Lookin At Lucky, the 8-5 favorite in the morning line, drew post position No. 13, and that’s all the reason I need to look elsewhere.

Don’t misunderstand: I have a high opinion of the unbeaten son of Smart Strike. He’s a beautiful colt, brimful of potential. And I have the highest respect for his trainer, Bob Baffert, who has said this is the best 2-year-old he has had in years. Still, from the 13 hole, he’ll be looking for luck indeed because without it he could find himself very wide in the first turn.

And D’Funnybone, the second-choice in the morning line at 5-2, has been running on dirt; here he’ll make his first start on a synthetic surface. Last year, no horse making the dirt-to-synthetic transition won a Breeders’ Cup race. And Richard Dutrow, the trainer of D’Funnybone, is two for 39 on synthetic surfaces over the last four years.

And so with valid reasons to look beyond the two favorites, the race becomes very appealing, and I don’t have to look far to find Eskendereya, a grand looking and improving son of Giant’s Causeway who has raced only twice. He made his debut on turf, finishing second, and then won Belmont’s Pilgrim Stakes, which was moved from the turf to the main track. That effort was eye-catching.

Last early, he advanced with a rush on the turn, moved without hesitation between horses and then drew clear, running the final quarter-mile over a dull surface in 24.85 seconds.
Like D’Funnybone, Eskendereya is making the dirt-to-synthetic transition, but he runs with the sort of high action that seems characteristic of the horses most successful on synthetic surfaces.

Aikenite is also intriguing. He improved when moving onto the synthetic surface at Keeneland and probably would have won the Futurity there if not for a wide trip. And the European contingent again seems strong. Alfred Nobel is highly regarded, even if he does appear to be regressing. And Radiohead ran well with some of the best juveniles in England, closing strongly in all his races to suggest he’ll appreciate more distance. And he’s a son of Johannesburg, who won this race in 2001.

Picks: Eskendereya, Lookin At Lucky, Aikenite, Radiohead.
 

'Capping the Cup, part II

THE BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE TURF

 

Two horses stand out in this group. At the risk of exposing myself to accusations of oversimplification, I have to conclude that this race comes down to Midday and Forever Together. I also have to admit that I find them difficult to separate, but thanks to multi-horse investments I don’t really have to. At 4-1 in the morning line, though, Midday will almost certainly represent the better investment.

 

She finished second in the English Oaks, just a head behind the sensational Sariska, ran third in the Irish Oaks, again chasing Europe’s top 3-year-old filly, and then defeated older horses in the Nassau. In other words, she has performed admirably and consistently while running at the highest level.

 

After a two-month break, she ran third at Longchamp, an effort intended to prepare her for this Breeders’ Cup foray. And her trainer, Henry Cecil, according to reports, has been bubbling with confidence.

 

Forever Together, though, won’t yield without making her charge. She has won only twice this year, but I suspect she’s every bit as good as she was a year ago, when she overwhelmed her rivals down the lane to win this by nearly a length. She prefers a firm course -- soft ground has compromised her this year – and she’ll probably get her preference at Santa Anita. Her last effort, an obvious prep, was much better than it might appear. She was taken far back early, but finished in 22.62 seconds for the final quarter-mile to be third. When she won the First Lady last year, she ran the final quarter in 23.15. Jonathan Sheppard, her trainer, clearly has had her pointed for this race for months.

 

Magical Fantasy, although a notch below the top pair, has won four consecutive stakes, including two over Santa Anita’s course, and she’ll probably collect a check here. Pure Clan, has won three of her five races at this distance, but she gave the worst performance of her career in this race a year ago, and some of her best efforts have been on soft ground. Rutherienne appears to be in top form and could complement the trifecta or superfecta.

 

Picks: Midday, Forever Together, Magical Fantasy, Rutherienne.

 

THE BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

 

Again, two stand out: Ventura and Informed Decision. They’ve won 10 of their 12 races over synthetic surfaces, and if one of them isn’t standing in the winner’s circle following this race, it’ll be an upset. But how to separate them?

 

Their only meeting, last April in the Madison Stakes at Keeneland, wasn’t conclusive. They finished a head apart, advantage to Informed Decision. But she had the better trip, advancing between horses while Ventura circled the field and raced five-wide. Of course, that could happen again. Informed Decision is more versatile, more tactical, with more early speed, and she could very well get the better trip again. Although the Santa Anita surface was decidedly unkind to speedsters early in the season, it has been playing differently in recent days, more fairly. And so with Informed Decision at 5-2 in the morning line, and Ventura, who won the race last year, at 8-5 . . . well, the decision has to be Informed.

 

If this race were run on dirt, Sara Louise, the last horse to defeat Rachel Alexandra, would have to be considered a serious threat to the top pair. She’ll be making only her third start of the year and appears poised for a big effort. And she may have sufficient speed to control the pace. But she never has raced on a synthetic surface and so remains something of a mystery. The same is true for the other Godolphin horse, Seventh Street. Her most recent effort, a  runner-up finish in the Ruffian Handicap over a muddy Belmont surface that seemed to put speedy types at a disadvantage, was very impressive. And she has sprinted successfully in the past. Again, though, she never has raced over a synthetic surface.

 

Picks: Informed Decision, Ventura, Sara Louise, Seventh Street.

 

THE BREEDERS’ CUP LADIES’ CLASSIC

 

Even with Zenyatta going to the Classic and Rachel Alexandra staying home, this is an intriguing race rife with talent. Life Is Sweet escapes the shadow of her stablemate and should finally get a lively pace that will make her more effective. Proviso, who twice took on Goldikova in Europe, won her American debut. Rainbow View, another who has raced against some of the best in Europe, could be at her best distance. Yes, it’s an intriguing race.

 

From here, though, Careless Jewel looks like the horse to beat. She has won five consecutive races by a total of 32 1/2 lengths; most important, she’ll control the pace. In the Cotillion at Philadelphia Park, she set what was for the distance a rapid pace, but she just kept going. In the Delaware Oaks, she did the same. In the Alabama, Robert Landry, her rider, reined in some of that speed, and when he turned her loose, she drew off to win by 11.

 

That’ll be the key, of course: persuading the headstrong filly to restrain and conserve some of her speed early. The absence of another speedster should assist Landry in his efforts and make Careless Jewel very tough to run down. And, by the way, she has won two races on a synthetic surface, specifically Woodbine’s.

 

Although she ran second in this race a year ago, just 1 1/2 lengths behind Zenyatta, Cocoa Beach could be overlooked here. Her recent efforts don’t recommend her strongly. But in the Lady’s Secret, she bobbled at the break and just couldn’t overcome the slow pace – after all, she isn’t Zenyatta. And at Saratoga, she found herself on a soft turf course that wasn’t to her liking, and there, too, the pace was dawdling. Still, she has conspicuous quality, and with Careless Jewel throwing down reasonable fractions, Cocoa Beach should be more effective.

 

Music Note, no doubt, will get a lot of love and could even be the betting favorite. Some thought she should have been the champion 3-year-old filly last year. And she’ll enter this race after winning consecutive stakes in grand style. She indeed appears to be in top form. The skeptic in me, though, wonders if having given back-to-back lifetime-best efforts she can do it yet again and if, having run third last year, she’s not quite as good on a synthetic surface as she is on dirt.

 

And don’t overlook Rainbow View. Last year, when she was unbeaten in four races, she appeared to be the best juvenile filly in England. And if she hasn’t stepped forward this year as you might have expected, a reason could be that she simply isn’t as effective in the longer races. The other reason, of course, is that she has run against Sariska, Goldikova and Midday. But  Rainbow View has won five of her eight races at distances shorter than 1 1/4 miles. And the nine furlongs here should be ideal for her.

 

Picks: Careless Jewel, Cocoa Beach, Music Note, Rainbow View.

'Capping the Cup, part I

THE BREEDERS’ CUP MARATHON

At 1 3/4 miles, this race appears to be tailor-made for the Europeans. In America, the Belmont Stakes is the only Grade I race on dirt run at 1 1/2 miles. In Europe, however, several major stakes are run at 1 1/2 miles and beyond, albeit on turf.

So this is a European game, and, as you might expect, a European won the inaugural Marathon last year, although not the one most widely expected to be successful. Sixties Icon finished fifth last year as the 7-5 favorite, while Muhannak won at 12-1.

Although Muhannak returns, he doesn’t appear to be in top form, and so Mastery, winner of the Group I St. Leger Stakes at approximately this distance, stands out. Even at 9-5 in the morning line, he could be inviting. In the ante-post, or early, wagering in England, his odds are even lower. Father Time finished 3 1/2 lengths behind Mastery in the St. Leger, but was actually more highly regarded prior to the race. He went off at 7-1, while Mastery, at 14-1, beat him for the second time in their two meetings. Both horses, it should be noted, have experience over a synthetic surface.

Nite Light won by nearly six lengths in his only race over a synthetic surface, at Turfway Park, and he could represent the best hope of the American horses. But Cloudy’s Knight is unbeaten in two turf races this year. He never has raced over a synthetic track, but turf horses tend to make the transition without difficulty, and he’s trained by Jonathan Sheppard, who’s a master at pointing a horse towards an objective and hitting the moment squarely.

Picks: Mastery, Father Time, Nite Light, Cloudy’s Knight.

THE BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

As a youngster, Emilie Charlotte Le Breton, who would become famous as the beautiful Lillie Langtry, was too much to handle for her French governess. Apparently that was why she was educated by a tutor, with her brothers. Lillie Langtry the filly also may prove too much to handle. While running against some of the best fillies in Europe, she has won half of her six races. And she has been the odds-on favorite in each of her last three outings, including a Group I affair at The Curragh.

In the Breeders’ Cup, she’ll try two turns for the first time and stretch out to a mile. But neither should be much of a concern. She has won around a left-handed turn, her pedigree insists she’ll appreciate the distance, and indeed she has rallied strongly in all her races. But if her odds dip below the morning line of 3-1, she may not look quite as attractive as her namesake.

House Of Grace won her debut on the turf at Saratoga by five lengths and then won the Jessamine at Keeneland, even though the race was moved off the turf onto the main track. The Keeneland race was especially impressive because the track that day wasn’t particularly kind to horses with a late-running style, and House Of Grace made up two lengths inside the eighth-pole to win in a photo. And her trainer, Kenny McPeek, who has won with 28 percent of his juvenile turf starters over the last five years, has maintained that she’s even better on turf.

Junia Tepzia, who’s unbeaten in two races in Italy, is a mystery. She could be good enough, even though she kept modest company in her two outings. But it’s curious, I think, that even in Europe, where presumably she’s better known, her odds are at 8-1.

A couple long shots could be interesting here. Jungle Tale, Steve Asmussen’s only Breeders’ Cup entrant, rallied into what was actually a slow pace for the day (the colts in the Summer Stakes went two full seconds faster for the opening half-mile) to overcome trouble and finish second in the Natalma Stakes at Woodbine. She appears ready to step forward. And Rose Catherine, after two dismal efforts, won her turf debut by nearly nine lengths, which leaves me wondering just how good this $410,000 yearling purchase might be. The day she won at Belmont, there was only one other race on the inner turf course, and in that, the trio of horses that led early was the trio that led the way across the finish; and so the course seems to have been playing kindly to speed. Still, Rose Catherine dominated, and she could control the pace here.

Picks: Lillie Langtry, House Of Grace, Junia Tepzia, Rose Catherine.

THE BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

I like this race as much as any that will be run Friday. It has a little bit of everything; most of all, though, it has an inviting investment opportunity. Blind Luck is the one to beat. Like Stardom Bound a year ago, she’ll enter this race after an impressive victory in the Oak Leaf. Blind Luck rallied strongly into a moderate pace and drew clear despite running a little greenly. A daughter of Pollard’s Vision, who won the 2004 Lone Star Derby, Blind Luck could very well improve here, in her second start around two turns and especially with a lively pace, as it almost surely will be.

Beautician, though, is very intriguing. In two stakes at Saratoga, she chased the best 2-year-old filly in the country, Hot Dixie Chick. And then, in the Alcibiades at Keeneland, she had a trip that deprived her of any chance to win. She raced three-to-four wide around both turns, found herself blocked in traffic behind a soporific pace and then got bumped around between horses. But when finally clear, she finished just as strongly as the winner, Negligee, who also ran well. The difference between the two was the trip: Negligee got through an opening between horses; Beautician had the door slammed in her face.

Connie And Michael appears to be the quickest by far in this group. She almost certainly will be on the early lead, and she could threaten. But she’s making her stakes and two-turn debut and so seems more likely to set the race up for the closers. At 4-1 in the morning line, she doesn’t appeal. Always A Princess led for much of the Oak Leaf, but she rallied to win her debut, suggesting that she doesn’t need and might not even want the early advantage. She could enjoy a perfect stalking trip,

Picks: Blind Luck, Beautician, Negligee, Always A Princess.