Horse racing

Ready to run

Etesaal was at it again this morning. A big, thick-necked dark bay who moves with the relentlessness of a locomotive, Etesaal worked three-quarters of a mile this morning in 1:12.47, finishing about five lengths ahead of Scared Money. Etesaal has been training as well as any horse at Lone Star and appears ready to run; this morning’s work was only the latest in a series of jaw-droppers.

Scared Money, who was scratched out of a race Thursday night,  kept up with him for the first three furlongs in 34.84. But Etesaal just kept rolling, with no encouragement from the exercise rider; he ran the next quarter in 24.86, completing five furlongs in 59.70, as Scared Money began to fall behind a length or so, and he just kept rolling, on to the seven-eighths pole (trainer Chris Hartman generally works his horses beyond the wire), whiere Scared Money finally capitulated. Still, she had a good work, too.

Tricky Causeway and Etoile de Dome also worked six furlongs, officially stopping the clock at 1:12.40. Tricky Causeway, however, looked the better of the two and galloped out more strongly, completing seven furlongs in 1:27.

Gyrovagi, a handsome gray from Donnie Von Hemel’s barn, had the bullet for five furlongs, officially 59.80. He ran the final quarter-mile in 24.54.

Stakes winner Gold Coyote was on the track this morning for a maintenance move, going a half-mile in 49.22. A couple of  youngsters, Midland Man and Miriam’s Star, looked sharp in gate workouts. Midland Man was just supposed to work a quarter-mile, but the exercise rider stayed down and the colt went so well that he earned a time for three furlongs, 35 flat, finishing about a length ahead of Catarina Ranch.

And on the subject of youngsters, Sweetacious had another good workout this week, going a half-mile in 48 from the gate Friday. This one is ready and the debut could be in the next week or so.

Curlin-Big Brown -- what are the chances?

First, they have to take care of business, and then anything is possible, explained Steve Asmussen, the leading trainer in the country whose stable star is the reigning Horse of the Year, Curlin. But what exactly are the possibilities? A match race perhaps? A meeting in the Jockey Club Gold Cup? A showdown in the Breeders’ Cup? What are the chances that Curlin and Big Brown will ever meet?

At best, in my most optimistic mood, having just had a lovely cup of coffee and discovered unexpectedly a hermetically sealed Arturo Fuente in my coat pocket, I’d say the chances lie somewhere between 20 and 30 percent. After all, some business must come first, specifically a Big Brown sweep of the Triple Crown and then, the following week, a Curlin victory in the Stephen Foster.

But after that, with the business handled, much would indeed be possible. And the possibilities are so attractive, so alluring, so potentially momentous and even historic that racetrack executives already are discussing them.

Richard Dutrow Jr., Big Brown’s effusive trainer, referred again Thursday to the colt’s post-Belmont Stakes appearances. Dutrow specifically has mentioned the Travers at Saratoga and the Classic at Santa Anita. If he follows that plan, it would, of course, leave the Classic as the only possibility for a meeting with Curlin. But there may be better options, not only because of the synthetic surface at Santa Anita, but also because a meeting there would have to wait for months, giving circumstances and bad luck too many opportunities for interference.

Everybody, or  almost everybody, wants it. The fans especially want it, and they deserve it. But a Curlin-Big Brown meeting will happen only if the timing and location are ideal and the incentives irresistible. The location is easy: Either Belmont Park or Churchill Downs would be the perfect site. Both horses will have raced at both racetracks. And both tracks, of course, have demonstrated repeatedly that they can put on the big show.

The timing also seems rather straightforward. Yes, good things happen to those who wait, but, as Mark Twain pointed out, only if you don’t die in the meantime. Good things generally happen to those who make them happen, and horse racing shouldn’t wait for the possibility of a Curlin-Big Brown meeting in October; it shouldn’t confuse Halloween with Christmas. For the good of the sport, this should happen earlier, preferably on July 12 or 19.

Either date would allow both horses sufficient time after they’ve taken care of their “business.” Most important, a mid-July date would take advantage of all the Triple Crown publicity, all the fever and jubilation and encomia, and so would guarantee worldwide attention for this classic showdown of champions, for this modern attempt to define racehorse greatness where it ultimately can only be defined, on the racetrack.

But since there’s no race appropriate for them on either July 12 or 19, their meeting would have to be a match race, a made for-TV, made-for-history, made-for-posterity, made-for-the-good-of-racing extravaganza. And since the Churchill meeting will have concluded, the race will have to be at Belmont Park.

Both days are already eventful at Belmont, with the Man o’ War on July 12 and the Coaching Club American Oaks a week later. Either could serve as a prelude to a Curlin-Big Brown match race. The mid-July date would even allow Big Brown to aim then at the Travers on Aug. 23, and Curlin, who would have to miss the Whitney, then could point towards the Woodward on Aug. 30. If everything works out, they could meet again in the Classic.

As for incentives, I’ll leave those to the folks who write the checks, but with television tossing money into the mix, and fans clamoring for the race and sponsors lining up to share in the moment, I’d think the purse would be at least $2 million.

Yes, a match race at Belmont Park on July 12 or 19 would be the best of all the possibilities. But, again, the possibilities are many. Belmont could spice up the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 27. Curchill could put together a match race for the fall, giving the Breeders’ Cup heartache and the suits in Louisville the last laugh. And if such possiblilities get ambushed by picayunish details, or torpedoed by petty concerns, or hoodwinked by specious realities or tripped up by corporate layabouts, then there’s always that glorious possibility of a meeting in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where Smarty Jones, and Point Given, and Afleet Alex, and Mineshaft, and. . . .  History has taught me never to trust the meantime.

Three McNeils, two stakes and a workout

Another McNeil will soon be riding at Lone Star Park. Erik McNeil, the 21-year-old son of jockey Tony McNeil, makes his debut Saturday. And in his first race, Erik will be riding against his brother, 24-year-old Bryan. Erik has the mount on Rain On Monday for trainer Steve Asmussen in Saturday’s ninth race, while Bryan has been named to ride Gambling Wolfe for Tommie Morgan.

Erik, by the way, was a cross country star in high school and turned down scholarships to join his dad and brother at the racetrack. For some time now, Erik has been working horses in the mornings for Asmussen. Just about everybody seems to think the latest McNeil has considerable potential as a rider.

And Waupaca looked good this morning, working five furlongs without encouragement in 1:00.66, with a final quarter-mile in 24.25 seconds. The venerable veteran was scratched out of a stakes race at Louisiana Downs recently because of a problem with his shoes, but there’s no problem with him.

Lone Star has cancelled two stakes: the $50,000 Lone Star Oaks on June 28 and the $50,000 Nevill-Kyocera on June 21. General manager Drew Shubeck said the elimination of the stakes was necessary because of the racetrack’s contract with horsemen, which requires any purse cut to include stakes races. Lone Star has cut purses 10 percent in response to the horsemen’s refusal to approve sending the simulcast signal to Account Deposit Wagering companies. This won’t be resolved soon. 

And a few horses that have been training very sharply will be racing Friday and Saturday at Lone Star. Keep an eye out.

Picking five on Million Day

On today’s Million Day program at Lone Star Park, the Pick Five looks, well, preeminently hit-worthy and invitingly hittable. It’s like that guy you saw in the hall one day as a youngster in high school, the guy with the “Hit Me” sign surreptitiously taped to his back; it’s like that big green button on the TV remote, the one that has no lettering to indicate its function; it’s like a grooved fastball that really isn’t too fast. You just have to take a swing and a poke, don’t you? You just have to hit it, or at least try and see what happens. So here it goes.

Seventh race: I’ll be surprised if the one of the California horses doesn’t win. The turf out there is much like Lone Star’s, and these two, Storm Military and Church Service, seem to be a couple lengths better than the group. If there’s an upsetter, though, he would have to either Going Ballistic or Jazz Quest. They’ve flashed sufficient talent to win if the California duo falters.

Eighth race: While training at Churchill Downs, Tres Dream has been pointed at this race for a while. She’s owned by Philip Robertson of Dallas, who once won it with Savorthetime. And Tres Dream should get just the kind of pace she needs, a rapid one, ensured by stablemate Stealth Cat. She’ll run with Wrenice early. Of course, if one of the speedsters doesn’t break sharply, then the other will be loose on the lead. And so for Pick Five purposes, I think you have to use all three horses: Tres Dream, Wrenice and Stealth Cat. Moneyinmywranglers, by the way, would be a contender on her best day. But I sure didn’t like her last workout, and so I’m going to toss her from consideration.

Ninth race: Yes, Costume is the one to beat, coming here after major stakes victories at Santa Anita. But in her last outing there, she got a clear comfortable lead in slow fractions and barely held on. And so with the abundance of early speed in this race, I think she’s very vulnerable. Elliecat, Buddha Lady and Forest Melody are all quick and all enjoy grabbing the early advantage, and so the pace here should percolate. And that could set this race up for Brownie Points. She is, I admit, one of my favorites. But I don’t allow emotions to blur my handicapping vision. She could get the perfect trip here. Tears I Cry is another who could benefit. And so for the Pick Five: Brownie Points, Tears I Cry and Costume.

10 race: Zanjero appears to be approaching a big effort, and his best should suffice here. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, has told me on a couple of occasions how impressed he has been with Zanjero and how well the horse is training. I’ve seen a few times in the mornings, and he looks terrific. The only question here is the setup. Stella Mark will probably be the early leader, and he could be dangerous if he slows the pace down. Giant Gizmo, of course, is very sharp, but I have to wonder if he’ll be able to duplicate his best efforts, which were in the slop and on Santa Anita’s synthetic track. And Todd Pletcher has me convinced that Cowtown Cat could take s step forward. So for the Pick Five: Zanjero, Giant Gizmo, Stella Mark, Cowtown Cat.

11th race: Dark Sheba looks like a standout based on her last turf outing. But that was in November, and she hasn’t raced since; so I can’t be very confident. I saw her work here on May 8, but I have no notes on it and don’t remember it, and so I must have been unimpressed and unmoved, either way, positively or negatively. And so for insurance, I’d include Contessa Alexandra and Simply Soxy.

The rest of the story

Now, seeing this was worth coming out early on a holiday morning.

Nakali worked six furlongs this morning in 1:13.36. So what, you’re saying. Well, here’s the rest of the story. A team of young horses from Michelle Lovell’s barn was working five furlongs, and they left the five-eighths pole slowly, as her horses generally do. Speed obviously wasn’t the objective with this pair. A few seconds later, Nakali broke off from the five-eighths pole.

Well, Nakali got one look at those horse in front of him – and they were about a sixteenth of a mile north – and he took off in pursuit. He didn’t need any encouragement; he had a target and was running after it, like a slow-horse-seeking missile. Nakali rocketed through three furlongs in 34.53, closing the gap to a few lengths, and then, although tiring, he kept after them in the stretch, catching the pair at the wire as he completed five furlongs in 59.38.

Nakali wore a white saddle towel with the “P” indicating he was from the stable of trainer Joe Petalino, who generally works his horses beyond the wire to the seven-eighths pole. And indeed the exercise rider stayed down, and Nakali continued on, by the Lovell team, to complete a bullet six furlongs. In fact, Nakali would have had the bullet, or fastest time, at every pole along the way.

And so who’s Nakali? He’s a horse that’ll soon be in the winner’s circle, of course. Other than that, I’m not sure, but I believe he won a minor stakes as a 2-year-old at Remington Park last year.

One other work this morning is worth mentioning: Truly Quiet worked a half-mile in 48.60, with a final quarter in 24, and she was a couple paths off the rail. Young Erik McNeil was up (he’ll be the next McNeil to become be a jockey), and he didn’t let her run a step; he had a firm hold of her, and yet she was only two ticks off the morning’s bullet.

Catching up on works

Keep an eye out for Kick On. A 2-year-old by Wiseman’s Ferry, he worked a half-mile this morning at Lone Star in 47.67, and he did it starting from the three-furlong marker and running to the seven-eighths – in other words, he began in one turn and ended in another. And he went the opening three furlongs in 34.14.

Yes, he’s very quick. And so I wondered what happened to him in his debut. Ten days ago, after being bet down to 4-1, he finished sixth. He broke slowly, rushed up four-wide and then flattened out in the stretch. But in the right company, where he can get clear, and with a decent trip, he should leave the maiden ranks soon.

Brendyn Jo, a recent Lone Star winner, remains sharp. He worked five furlongs in 1:01.02, which isn’t especially noteworthy, but he did it the right way, with a final quarter-mile in 23.82. Golden State continues to train well, going an easy half-mile this morning in 49.00.

Timbrook and Etesaal also continue to look good in the mornings. On Saturday, Timbrook worked a half-mile from the gate in 49.23, but, again, the clocking isn’t as important as the way it was achieved. Timbrook was asked for little and he went by himself, which means he didn’t have the encouragement of competition, and he ran the final quarter-mile in 23.66. Since the starting gate is positioned in the 1 1/4-chute in the mornings, the second quarter-mile of a gate work is around a turn. Anything under 24 seconds for that quarter is outstanding. A couple horses all year might actually shave 23 seconds for that second quarter. And so Timbrook’s 23.66 was very good, even though the final time was just ordinary. Etesaal worked six furlongs Saturday in 1:14.60, and it was only the latest of several good morning moves for him. He and Timbrook both appear to be ready. 

And then there was Sweet Friday. In the mornings, Sweetacious has shown as much as any 2-year-old I’ve seen at this meeting, and Friday she had the bullet for five furlongs, with clocker Gary Reckner catching her in 59.60. Best of all, she worked in company, with a colt named Quack In The Wall. Spotting him a length or two, she ran by him in the lane. Sweetacious is from the Bret Calhoun stable, and I’ll be surprised if she doesn’t win her debut.

Asmussen and Big Brown

Steve Asmussen said he was offended. And he doesn’t offend easily.

Richard Dutrow Jr., the trainer of Big Brown, recently said in The Daily Racing Form that if the Kentucky Derby-Preakness winner meets Curlin, the reigning Horse of the Year, in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, their confrontation would be good for racing. But, Dutrow said, it wouldn’t be so good for Curlin.

Asmussen, who, of course, trains Curlin, said he doubts Dutrow’s sincerity in making such comments. Dutrow has identified three possible races in Big Brown’s future – the Belmont, Travers and Classic. Two of them are restricted to 3-year-olds; the other, the Classic, could be run on a synthetic surface at Santa Anita. A confrontation there would hardly be conclusive. Still, Asmussen said he’s eager to take on Big Brown with Curlin.

“First, we both have to take care of business,” he said, referring to Big Brown’s upcoming start in the Belmont and Curlin’s in the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs. “After that, there are some great possibilities.

“It would be great for racing,” he continued, referring to a Curlin-Big Brown meeting, “and I’d love to be part of it. But I don’t want to talk about it, and I don’t want to hear a lot of worthless opinions about it. The proof is on the racetrack. I just want to beat him.”

   

Pick Five carryover

A little carryover of $2,684 invites a swing at tonight’s Pick Five at Lone Star. And so here’s one strategy.

Sixth race: Lyin’ Heart, a $100,000 yearling from the first crop of Kentucky Derby runner-up Lion Heart, is clearly the one to beat here. On May 13, he worked in company and on even terms with Lightlightlight, a filly who won very impressively Thursday night. Lyin’ Heart, I think, is a possible single for a Pick Five ticket.

But for a more expansive ticket, or perhaps for a complementary Pick Three, some others could be used. Tres Dangereux appears to be training well. I haven’t seen him in the mornings, or at least have no notes on him, but he comes from the stable of trainer Bret Calhoun and, equally important, he’s a graduate of the Diamond D Ranch in Lone Oak, which has served as the first classroom for many stakes winners over the years. Extreme Cat, Delm and Heber Valley have flashed some ability and could be used, too.

Seventh race:  Chameleon stands out on paper, where no race was ever run. But the turf course, which has favored speed this season, dampens confidence. First Dominion has enough speed to take advantage of the bias, and Cowboy Code returns to the turf, where he has run some of the best races of his career. P F Don D doesn’t appear to be in good form, but he’s capable of a big effort from time to time, and he, too, has good speed.

Eighth race: Like the sixth, this is a trial for the Texas Thoroughbred Association Futurity, which will be run June 7. Frankly, I abhor the trial format simply because the objectives of the trainers and jockeys do not always coincide with the objectives of the bettors. The bettors want to win; trainers and jockeys just want to qualify and then win on June 7. That said, I can’t approach this with much confidence, but I think the winner will come from this quartet: Justwill, Call West, Soup Or Juice and Expect Smoke.

Ninth race: Hello From Heaven is a possible single. Even though the 3-year-old will be facing older horses, he appears to have a talent edge here. He ran second to Halo Najib down in Florida, and after a couple disappointments, he appears to be moving forward again. He raced a little wide in his last outing, but finished second behind a very capable older horse, Crooks Stinger, and Hello From Heaven finds an easier spot here. Also possible are Crooks Adventure, Mr. Bush Country and Shotgun Groom.

Tenth race: Texasleestown is the most intriguing horse here, making her first start for Bret Calhoun. If you make a speed figure based on the three-quarter-mile split of his one-mile race at Sunland (59), Texasleestown has a clear advantage. Mysterous One showed some ability in her debut. Bourbonsunshine has been close in both her races, and Porsumrum appears to be training well.

Lone Star Million Day

Monday’s Lone Star Million program, which features six stakes worth the not-so-obvious total of $1.1 million, is taking shape. Most of the horses expected to race Monday are here. Giant Gizmo, who could be the favorite for the $400,000 Lone Star Park Handicap, is expected to arrive this afternoon.

Mike Shamburg, the stakes coordinator, confirmed that Storm Military, a stakes winner at Santa Anita February, will run in the $200,000 Dallas Turf Cup for trainer Bobby Frankel. Garret Gomez is expected to ride. Trainer Donnie Von Hemel said he'll probably run Going Ballistic in the Dallas Turf Cup rather than the Lone Star Park Handicap. Here’s a rundown of the probable starters.

$400,000 Lone Star Park Handicap: Cowtown Cat, Encaustic, Giant Gizmo, One Lucky Buck, Stella Mark, Won Awesome Dude, Zanjero.

$200,000 Dallas Turf Cup: Beta Capo, Church Service, Eighteenthofmarch, Going Ballistic, Jazz Quest, Mr. Wolverine, Red Rock Creek, Scrappy Roo, Skim The Till, Storm Military, Swains News.

$200,000 Ouija Board: Barbette, Brownie Points, Buddha Lady, Candy Ball, Costume,  Elliecat, Emma Grace, Forest Melody, Super Freaky, Tears I Cry.

$100,000 USA Stakes: Ablaze With Spirit, Boss Lafitte, Bullet Brew, Cape Time, Golden Yank, Red Birds Magician, Trackerman.

$100,000 Cinemine Stakes: Classie Baloo, Euphony, Ruffaroundtheedges, Sky Mom, Storm Mesa, Twisted Tale, Uno Mas Promesa.

$100,000 Valid Expectations: Moneyinmywranglers, Precious Kiss, Starry Pie, Stealth Cat, Stormin Quality, Tres Dream, Wrenice.

Big Brown could beat the most, if not the best

Big Brown already has done more than most Triple Crown winners.

At least, that’s one way to look at his dominating victories in the Kentucky Derby and  Preakness. Of course, looking at it that way requires a momentary emphasis on the quantity rather than the quality of his opposition. With his two wins, Big Brown has defeated a total of 30 horses in the first two races of the famed series. (That, of course, counts Gayego twice since he ran in both races.)

War Admiral defeated 32 starters to sweep the Triple Crown in 1937, and Assault beat 31 in 1946. They’re the only two Triple Crown winners who defeated more starters, or horses, in the three races of the series than Big Brown already has beaten in the first two legs of it. (Sir Barton defeated 24 in 1919; Gallant Fox, 27 in 1930; Omaha, 29 in 1935; Whirlaway, 20 in 1941; Count Fleet, 14 in 1943; Citation, 15 in 1948; Secretariat, 21 in 1973; Seattle Slew, 29 in 1977; and Affirmed, 20 in 1978.)

Field size obviously has added greatly to the difficulty of sweeping the Triple Crown. More than ever, the Triple Crown, and especially the Kentucky Derby, has become the focus of the entire sport. The Breeders’ Cup folks like to point out that their event is the Super Bowl of horse racing, and it is, if by that they mean it determines championships. But in terms of getting the eye of the entire nation, intruding on the popular awareness and transfixing the attention of even the most casual fans, the sport has only the Triple Crown.

And so owners and breeders, at least those with the resources to support such lofty dreams and ambitions, aim for the Kentucky Derby from the instant they buy a horse or match a mare with a stallion. Early each year, people spend millions chasing after Triple Crown prospects. For many, just getting there is the goal, arriving there at Churchill Downs with a chance for glory and with an opportunity to share, however tangentially, in one of sport’s great events, to be close to one of its most magical and uplifting moments.

That’s why since 1978, the Kentucky Derby has averaged 17.2 starters. It has had 20 each of the last four years. Of course, this is a modern phenomenon. Modernity has more vanity than pride. Not long ago, it would have been embarrassing to start a horse with virtually no chance in the Derby. Having frightened away most of the competition, Citation defeated only five rivals in his Kentucky Derby. In fact, the 11 Kentucky Derbies that began the Triple Crown sweeps averaged 13.5 starters.

But for the 11 horses since 1978 who have won the first two races in the series, including Big Brown, the Kentucky Derby has averaged 16.5 starters. Their Preaknesses averaged 10.3 starters, compared to 7.9 for the Triple Crown winners’. Of course, 10 of those horses failed to win their Belmont, which averaged in those years 9.4 starters, compared to 5.5 for the Belmonts of the Triple Crown winners.

Because of their reputations for invincibility, some Triple Crown winners apparently had a rather easy go of it after the Derby. Count Fleet defeated only three horses when he won  the Preakness, and only two when he won the Belmont. Affirmed’s Belmont had only five starters, and Whirlaway’s only four.

By the third race in the series, they had proven their dominance, and few stepped forward to take them on. But 10, I see, could line up against Big Brown at Belmont Park. He could sweep the series without having defeated a truly top horse, but if he succeeds on June 7 he will at least have beaten more horses than any other Triple Crown winner in history.