Saturday’s Lone Star Derby is the centerpiece of the Pick Five, which has a little carryover of $1,833.
The Pick Five begins with the seventh race, the $125,000 Pan Zareta division of the Texas Stallion Stakes. Classie Baloo is the one to beat, coming out of a solid race where she finished second in open company against older horses. But she has been inconsistent for much of her career, and I suspect she’s more likely to bounce off that effort than repeat it. Surfboard, on the other hand, has won three of four, and seems to be improving. She has been pointed at this race for some time. A Pick Five ticket should probably include both. A deeper ticket could also include Formal Flyer and Ms Classic Seneca.
Eighth race: This may be the most contentious of the Pick Five races. Adding to the handicapping puzzle is the turf course itself, which has been unabashedly biased for most of the season in favor of early speed. That means even Enticing Mr. G could have a shot in here since she (yes, this Mr. G is a “she”) will probably grab the early advantage. No Tears In Heaven, who has been transformed by turf into a reliable sort, is the one to beat, but several others could be included.
Stevie Wondergirl got bumped around at the break in her last and has sufficient speed to be prominent from the start; Graceful Touch returns to the turf, where she’s most effective; Runaway Scout also had a rough trip in her last; Hunsa hasn’t shown anything in two races, or in her last workout, by the way, but Cody Autrey, who usually drops this kind to the bottom faster than you can say “fire sale,” runs her here for $25,000, which is just strange enough to include her; and Sun Sheika, who comes from the Asmussen stable, walked out of the gate in her last and should improve.
Ninth race: This is the Stymie division of the Texas Stallion Stakes, where Gold Coyote makes his return. If not for his mind, or the absence of a mind, he’d be running in the Lone Star Derby. He’s very talented. But he’s also . . . well, he’s a little erratic. He refused to run a step on Arlington’s Polytrack, for example. In the Dixieland Stakes, he broke on top, but when Ramsey Zimmerman grabbed hold of him in an attempt to persuade him to control his speed, he would have none of it and just retreated. And in the Jims Orbit Stakes, he had a five length lead in mid-stretch when his new rider, Bobby Walker, gave him a pop, just to make sure he wouldn’t go to sleep, and what did he do? He stuck his toes in the ground, of course, and finished second. He’s easily the most talented horse in the field, and Walker knows him now. Still, Gold Coyote might be a risky single. If does something silly, which is always a possibility, then Ferdinand’s Flyer could get loose, or Ablaze With Spirit could run them all down.
Tenth race: This is a great Lone Star Derby – a full field that’s rife with quality. I’ll be a little surprised, though, if the winner isn’t Samba Rooster or El Gato Malo. When Samba Rooster finished second in the Lexington, he ran the opening half in 45.21. The other half-mile splits that day at Keeneland in two-turn races were: 48.06, 47.34, 48.26 and 49.14. In other words, he went 10 lengths faster than any other front-runner in any other two-turn race that day. He’s fast. And he should control the pace. He’ll get blinkers today, not to keep him from seeing the grandstand or other horses so much as to prevent him from being distracted by Garrett Gomez. Gomez didn’t even carry a whip in the Lexington. But he will today.
Craig Dollase says throw out El Gato Malo’s Santa Anita Derby. The Bad Cat lost it in the paddock. Since then, though, he has trained like a champ with blinkers. And Bejarano replaces Flores in the saddle.
I’d use Limestone Edge on any multi-race ticket, too, but that’s no problem since he’s coupled with Samba Rooster. I was very impressed with Limestone Edge last year when he broke his maiden. Then he got sick, then he ran ninth, and then he became very sore. The trouble was an undescended testicle. That was removed, and he ran strongly in his first race back at Keeneland. His trainer, Bob Hess, seems to be very high on the handsome chestnut.
If you’re looking for an upsetter here, Texas Wildcatter, My Pal Charlie and Leonides have appeal.
Eleventh race: Steven’s Mark drops to the lowest level of his career and is the one to beat, but he also looks like he’s for sale. Zurich, Betabet On Bob and Game Play’s Icon should be included, with Ida Bet Yukon Too and Mimsky having upset possibilities.
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