FantasyLand

Returning favors

Injuries play a huge part throughout the NBA fantasy season. There are several players who tested fantasy owners’ patience with injuries and recently have returned or are expected to return in the coming weeks. What to expect from the return of these players and how it will affect their teams:

Gilbert Arenas
When Arenas went out in mid-November to have another knee surgery, prospects were looking grim. It’s funny what kind of motivation an impending contract can do to a man. Arenas is planning to opt out of the final year of his current contract to become an unrestricted free agent this off-season and  plans to return to action March 2. When he comes back, DeShawn Stevenson immediately becomes expendable, and you should plan to drop him then or before. Backup point guard Antonio Daniels also will take a big hit in value and will likely only warrant ownership in larger leagues. Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison should continue to be rock-solid despite Arenas’ return.

Elton Brand
It remains uncertain when Brand will return from the Achilles’ tendon injury that has caused him to miss the whole season, but it’s starting to sound more and more like he will be back. Brand also can opt out of the last year of his contract, so if he can come back and play at the level he did last season, he could be playing himself into a max contract this off-season. If he does return, it should be in early March. Chris Kaman has had a huge spike in production with Brand out all year and his rebounding numbers should come back to earth a little. He still should produce well, so it isn’t like you’ll want to cut him loose; just expect a dip. Also, some of Corey Maggette’s scoring could drop, but it should make him a more efficient player. Al Thornton would likely become expendable, but point guards Sam Cassell and Brevin Knight could see their assists numbers make a nice jump.

T.J. Ford
Ford had another scary incident involving his spine Dec. 11 when Al Horford knocked him to the ground on a fast break. He returned to action Monday after missing 23 games, and it’s uncertain what his role will be. Jose Calderon played like an All-Star in his   absence and has created quite a quandary for the Raptors. Calderon’s numbers on the season now easily trump Ford’s, so it is very possible that Calderon could remain the starter. Still, you can expect a small to moderate dip in Calderon’s numbers, but they still will be higher than they were before Ford was injured.   Anthony Parker could see a small dip in production, but Ford’s return will mostly impact Calderon.

-Scooter Hendon

Adds, drops and trends

Grab him

Mark Blount, Heat center
With Shaq out of town, Blount probably will be starting the rest of the season. He isn’t amazing, but should give you a consistent 12-14 points and 5-7 rebounds per game.

Drop him

Beno Udrih, Kings guard
Udrih was a great addition to fantasy squads when Sacramento was desperate for healthy players. Those days are over, and Udrih has returned to parttime duty. Let him go.

Fast breaking

Memphis Grizzlies’ youngsters
With Pau Gasol having moved to Los Angeles, it leaves a lot of open minutes to go with added scoring and rebounding opportunities. Juan Carlos Navarro, Hakim Warrick and Darko Milicic deserve consideration to be picked up, and if Mike Miller is also traded, some of these guys could be great stretch-run contributions to your team.

Slowing down

Phoenix Suns
Not to say the Suns will immediately grind to a halt, but if you have Shaq, keep in mind that this style of play probably means more injuries and even less scoring from him. The absence of Shawn Marion should cut Amare Stoudemire’s fantasy production slightly.

-Scooter Hendon

Ins and outs of Gasol to the Lakers

Earlier this afternoon, it was announced that the Grizzlies would move Pau Gasol to the Lakers for Kwame Brown, Javaris Crittenton, the draft rights to Marc Gasol and a filler contract for Aaron McKie. How this effects the fantasy world:

Grizzlies

Kwame Brown: If he's still available in your league, go pick him up. He has a lot of talent, but usually little hustle and no motivation. He is entering the home stretch of a contract year, which means he should start hustling for once. Plus, he will likely continue to get consistent playing time for the rest of the season, not just until Andrew Bynum returns.

Juan Carlos Navarro: As I wrote before, when he's getting consistent minutes, he produces. With Damon Stoudamire out of the picture and a big scoring threat for the Grizzlies (Gasol) out of the picture, Navarro could have a chance to shine as he has done through stretches of this season. If you have an extra roster spot and he's available, he'd probably be wise to grab right now.

Darko Milicic: He was an inconsistent fringe fantasy player before, and that likely won't change now. Still, Brown is a true-blue center, so it's possible Darko could start getting more minutes at power forward if the Grizzlies want to go big.

Mike Miller: He's been fantastic this year, and that won't change. While his assist numbers and shooting percentage may dip slightly, his rebounding and scoring numbers should go up. If you have him, consider yourself lucky.

Lakers

Pau Gasol: He might not put up numbers as lofty as you've expected when he was with Memphis, but he'll probably become more efficient. When Andrew Bynum comes back, you can probably expect a decrease in rebounds, but an increase in assists, blocks and shooting percentage.

Lamar Odom: Odom's position in all this might be the most interesting. His skill set says that he'd be more suited to the small forward position, but he is too big and not quick enough to defend many of the league's small forwards. His playing time probably won't go down too much, but he could find himself out of games late when Bynum and Gasol are in. Either way, expect his rebounding numbers to dip even more when Bynum returns and expect his assists to go up. When owners drafted him this year, they were likely expecting him to average between 4 and 5 a game instead of the 2.9 he has so far. You might be able to expect 4 or 5 if Bynum comes back before the fantasy season ends.

Ronny Turiaf: His value has been contingent on Bynum being out in the first place, and when he comes back, he'll become almost worthless fantasy-wise. However, for the next month or so, he'll probably maintain his current pace and can be depended upon as a potential big-block, decent-rebound guy despite the presence of Gasol.

-Scooter Hendon

Bynum out 8 weeks

It was reported today that after the examination of his knee injury last night, Lakers center Andrew Bynum will miss a minimum of 8 weeks. He bruised the knee last night in a collision with teammate Lamar Odom.

This should mean a big boost in minutes for Ronny Turiaf and Kwame Brown. And, depending on the depth of your league, either of them could warrant adding. Brown will likely get more minutes, but Turiaf has the potential to put up more stats. If you desperately need a center (like maybe if you are a Bynum owner), Brown wouldn't be bad to have as Turiaf is probably only available as a forward. Turiaf's athleticism and per-minute stats make him a better add in my opinion, but either way, both are worth consideration.

This is especially true considering that the Lakers play three straight four-game weeks after this one. Then, they are one of only three teams in the NBA to have a three-game week during All-Star week. Then, they play two more four-game weeks. The bottom line: the Lakers play a lot of games coming up, which should mean a consistent boost from both of those guys.

-Scooter Hendon

Who's hot and cold

Fast breaking

Charlotte guard/forwards
Both Jason Richardson and Gerald Wallace got off to rocky starts this season, but lately the two of them have been fantasy dynamite. Over their last six games, Richardson is averaging 22.3 points, 3.6 3-pointers, 1.3 steals and almost one block per game. Wallace is averaging 23 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 2.5 steals and 1 block. Depending on how you feel, you could try holding onto Wallace, or try trading high before an inevitable injury catches up to him.

Slowing down

Washington backup guards
Your time is running out on using DeShawn Stevenson and Roger Mason as stop-gap additions. Antonio Daniels is expected back very soon, and as soon as he gets back in the swing of things, one, if not both, should become marginal fantasy players again. Stevenson is close to being that already; he hasn’t been able to score consistently, and Mason has only had a couple of good games lately.

Grab him

Nazr Mohammed, center
Two weeks ago, the Bobcats shipped Primoz Brezec and Walter Herrmann to Detroit in exchange for veteran center Nazr Mohammed. The move was puzzling for the Bobcats to make, but in fantasy circles, Mohammed entered relevancy immediately. If he’s still available in your league, go grab him. He’s averaging 13 points, 10 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and is shooting 58.3 percent so far with Charlotte, and should continue with similar numbers.

Drop him

Kelenna Azubuike, guard/forward
Azubuike came out strong to start the season, spurring a mad dash to add the previously unheralded second-year player. He was solid through most of the first part of the season, and even did well when Stephen Jackson returned from suspension in the Warriors’ eighth game. But lately, Azubuike has seen his playing time and stats take big dips. In his last seven games, he’s averaging 5.5 points, 3 rebounds and less than a 3-pointer per game.

-Scooter Hendon

Minutes trickle down

When evaluating fringe fantasy players or players to add to your squad, a common practice is to look at where each player stands on the depth chart. If a team’s starting point guard goes down with an injury, you will probably look at who his backup is and consider adding that player accordingly. These direct replacements are great places to start when looking to add someone, but consider looking at team trends on playing time rather than just looking directly behind someone on the depth chart.

When a player is injured, depending on the construction of the team a team’s approach could change completely, depending on its construction. A few recent examples came from the injuries of Tim Duncan for the Spurs and Kevin Martin for the Kings. With Duncan out, the Spurs opted to go with a more free-flowing system that relied on a lot of guard play. With Martin out, the Kings went to more of a half-court set, and their big men have seen more of an increase in minutes and stats.

Perhaps the most telling example of these types of occurrences involves the tumultuous fantasy season of Grizzlies guard Juan Carlos Navarro. Conventional logic would have Navarro playing more minutes when Damon Stoudamire or Kyle Lowry is injured, but Navarro’s playing time and success come as a direct result of the Grizzlies’ power-forward/center combination of Pau Gasol and Darko Milicic.
With either of those two big men out, Navarro becomes a must-own sharpshooter. With both of them playing, you’d be hard-pressed to find a fantasy team anywhere that should start him (see chart at right).

In 17 games with Gasol and Milicic playing, Navarro’s per-game averages:

Min	Points	3pt	Ast	Reb
17.3	7.2	1.5	1.2	1.1

In 12 games with either Gasol or Milicic out:

Min	Points	3pt	Ast	Reb
32.2	14.2	2.3	3	3.2

-Scooter Hendon

From out of nowhere

Sean Williams

14 points, 10 rebounds, 5 blocks

Williams can be a maddening fantasy player. He's almost always going to be sitting on waivers, unless one owner on your team is desperate enough for blocks that week to risk him laying an egg. A game like tonight's will undoubtedly make a few owners in your league to look twice, and some will add him. He'll come out and have 5 blocks, 3 blocks...even 8 blocks as he did a few games ago. Of course, peppered in between are a bunch of 0-block games. His rebounding is also suspect, and this is his first double-digit rebounding game of the season. He's a big man, and if he isn't happening into a few 10+ rebound nights every once in awhile, he probably just isn't a great rebounder. If you need a few blocks, there are probably better sources out there like Erick Dampier and Kurt Thomas available. They'll probably be more consistent and they'll even give you some double-digit rebounding games.

-Scooter Hendon

Three four-gamers

Next week is a slim week for games for most teams due to Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. If you play in a weekly league, consider that Boston, Miami and Phoenix are the only three teams that play four games next week with every other team playing either three or two. If you own the top players from these teams, consider yourself lucky. If there is a decent player from one of those teams available on waivers, you might want to consider picking him up for one week to get the extra game advantage.

-Scooter Hendon

From out of nowhere

Kris Humphries, forward

12 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, 5-9 FGs
Humphries has put together three straight solid games and is starting to look like he might pan out into a decent player after all. With career averages of 3.7 points and 2.8 rebounds in three seasons, Humphries was starting to look like yet another marginal NBA player at the end of the bench. His coming out party against the Mavericks with 16 points and 12 rebounds looked like a fluke at first. That might have been a bit rash as he has averaged 15 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1 block with 63 percent shooting. With T.J. Ford out for an undetermined period of time, more minutes are trickling down. Andrea Bargnani has also been very dissapointing lately, and that has opened up Humphries to do more and play more minutes. He might be a good player to add, but he could be risky as Bargnani could pick it up soon and that would cut into Humphries' minutes. If Chris Bosh or Bargnani miss extended periods, Humphries would be a very good guy to look at adding.

-Scooter Hendon

From out of nowhere

Craig Smith, PF

36 points, 8 rebounds, 14-22 FGs, 8-9 FTs, 1 block
Smith was going to get the nod tonight when he had 29 points. Then he had a little bit extra in the tank to push his career high up even further. To be honest, he had fallen under my radar until tonight despite averaging 16.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and shooting 62.5 percent from the floor in his three previous games. If you're like me, tonight was a wakeup call and you are adding him right now. He obviously won't put up numbers close to what he did tonight, but if he's scoring more than 17 or 18 points and grabbing 7 or more rebounds per night (which is a reasonable expectation), he obviously deserves a spot on your team. With Ryan Gomes having a disappointing season thus far, somebody has to step into that power forward role for Minnesota, and Smith may be the favorite to do that now. Don't expect him to do much else but score and rebound (he has 5 steals, 6 blocks and 3 assists in the whole season), but if he's shooting a high percentage from the field and scoring well like that, you should welcome the decent boost in three categories any day.
-Scooter Hendon